经济学人下载:全球抗议活动目标不一致

Protests
全球抗议活动

Not quite together
目标不一致

Protests are proliferating across the world. Their aim is not obvious. Nor is how much they matter.
抗议活动正扩散至全世界。这些活动没有明确目标，也没有太大意义。

THE aims may be incoherent, but the common threads are clear. The protests that have mushroomed in over 900 cities in 80-plus countries over the past few days have voiced few practical demands, and in some cases they actually avoid making any. Participants favour the general over the specific. They think need matters more than greed. They like decisions by consensus, distrust elites and feel that capitalism’s pains and gains are unfairly shared. Beyond that, the horizon clouds.
虽然抗议活动的目标可能是含糊不清，但是共同的思路是十分明确的。过去一些天里，迅速出现在全球80多个国家里900多个城市的中的抗议活动所提出的实质性的要求甚少，在某些情况下抗议者们竟然闭口不谈。比起具体目标，抗议者们更喜欢整体性的反抗。他们认为自己的实际需要比贪得无厌更重要。他们喜欢通过共识作出决定，不相信上层集团，认为自己更多地承受着资本主义的痛苦而非享受着它的甘甜。除此之外便没有什么明确的说法了。

In many cities (notably London, which has followed the example set by Occupy Wall Street in New York) the protesters have set up encampments that are meant to last indefinitely; in others they came and went. Defining where the wave of protests started is hard. Some point to Israel, where public unhappiness focused on the cost of food, housing and education. Spain’s indignados, or indignant ones, still going strong since their start in May, have a claim too. But the protesters’ brand (not a term they would all welcome) is most firmly linked to New York. Now in its second month, the Occupy Wall Street encampment in Zuccotti Park (protesters prefer the old name of Liberty Park) is already a fixture on the tourist circuit. Visitors can start at the 9/11 Memorial on the site of the World Trade Centre, then stroll up the hill for a picture with one of the hundreds of protesters. The camp also attracts well-wishers, including famous names like Salman Rushdie, Susan Sarandon and Naomi Wolf (who was briefly arrested this week).
在很多城市（尤其是伦敦，当地抗议者们响应了纽约的占领华尔街运动）抗议者们设立了营地，打算将抗议活动进行到底。其他一些城市的抗议者们则时来时去。确定此轮抗议大潮的起源地是很困难的。在一定程度上可以说是以色列，当地人民对于飞涨的食品，住房，教育价格怨声载道。西班牙的indignados们，或者说愤怒者们的示威游行自五月份开始以来仍然没有减弱，他们也有自己的宣言。但是世界各地抗议者们的招牌（并非所有抗议者们都喜欢这个词语）和纽约抗议活动的联系最为密切。占领华尔街运动已经进入第二个月，其位于祖可蒂公园（抗议者们更喜欢自由公园这一旧称）的营地已经是旅游环形路线上的固定地标。游客们从世贸中心遗址上的9.11纪念碑出发，顺着小山走上去和众多抗议者们其中的一些人合影留念。营地也吸引了一些怀有美好祝愿的支持者，包括Salman Rushdie、Susan Sarandon、 Naomi Wolf (本周被短暂拘留)等著名人物。

In more than one sense, the protest can seem misplaced. Some of the biggest financial firms left Wall Street for midtown Manhattan years ago. Aside from the hallmark “We are the 99%”, the placards on display cover a huge range of causes, many of which have nothing to do with the underpricing of risk, moral hazard and other faults, real or imagined, of financial capitalism. Some want to tax the rich, others to decertify business schools. Hostile references to Wal-Mart and Starbucks outnumber those to any Wall Street firms.
在很多意义上讲，此次抗议活动可以说是不合时宜。一些大的金融公司多年前就离开了华尔街前往曼哈顿中心地区。除了“我们是受苦的99%”这一典型的口号，他们打出的标语包含很多原因，但是其中很多都和低估风险，道德败坏等这些不管是真实存在的还是想象出来的金融资本主义的缺点无关。有些人希望对富人征税，有些人希望取消商学院的资格。对于沃尔玛和星巴克的恶意攻击比对华尔街公司的声讨还多。

The general tone is left-wing, though a lone youth with an “End the Fed” placard is described as a “Ron Paul person”, and the libertarian Republican presidential hopeful has at least a handful of supporters there. Doug Schoen, a pollster for the Democrats, surveyed 200 participants and found most were well to the left of the American mainstream. Virtually all (98%) say they would support civil disobedience to achieve their goals, and nearly one-third (31%) would use violence if necessary.
虽然举着“结束美联储”标语牌的一个年轻人被描述为“支持Ron Paul（共和党众议员，于2008年竞选总统失败，并计划参加2012年总统竞选。主张建立小政府，撤销美联储等许多美国政府机构，反对全民医保，曾着有《结束美联储》一书）的人”，而且Ron Paul这位有望获胜的自由意志共和党候选人拥有不少支持者，但是抗议的总体基调是偏左的。民主党民意调查员Doug Schoen调查了200位参与者后发现其中大部分人就美国主流价值观念而言思想偏左。几乎是所有人（98%）都认为他们都将采用不合作主义达成目标，几乎有三分之一（31%）的人认为有必要的话将采用暴力。

But even marginal groups can have a big impact in the right circumstances. Some 35% said they wanted the Occupy Wall Street movement to do for the Democrats what the tea party (broadly detested among the protesters) had done for the Republicans. Whether such an upheaval would ever increase a party’s electability is another question.
但是在合适的情况下即使非主流的群体也会产生极大的影响。约35%的人希望“占领华尔街”运动对于民主党能起到茶党（大体上讲抗议者们对其十分憎恨）对于共和党的同样的推动作用。但是这样的折腾能否增加一个政党获胜的几率又是另一回事了。

For many, the main aim may be to have fun. But the protest is also notable for scrupulous adherence to the sort of democratic values that Alexis de Tocqueville, a French chronicler of America, loved. A general assembly meets up to twice a day to discuss proposals from working groups. Politicians are wary of persecuting such well-disciplined gatherings and the police have largely stayed their hand. They are happily earning overtime.
对于很多人而言，主要就是目标就是玩乐。值得注意的是抗议者们认真遵循着美国编年史作家法国人Alexis de Tocqueville所推崇的民主观。他们每天召开两次大会讨论劳动群体的提议。政客们在起诉这些纪律严明的机会方面十分谨慎，警察们大部分时间都放手不管。抗议者们喜欢表现的活跃。

What exactly would winning mean?
胜利到底意味着什么？

The protesters have not said (and often seem not to know) what would make them declare victory and go home. The first practical proposal, to cancel military operations overseas to pay for a big public-works programme, caused a big row. The easiest way for the protest to develop may be through more civil disobedience. That stokes feelings of self-righteousness (and persecution) but does little to win wider support. Meanwhile, the protests’ political effect seems very uncertain. Protesters decry what they see as attempts by politicians, including Barack Obama, to curry favour with them. Union support, which could add muscle, is patchy. Unions like the Teamsters are visible in New York’s marches, but their offers of financial support are treated warily. In Spain the indignados have fanned fury with the Socialist government—thus helping the centre-right, which is set to win next month’s election.
抗议者们没有说明（而且经常似乎不知道）要达成什么目标才能宣告胜利，解散回家。他们的第一个有实际意义的提议是是取消国外的军事行动，转而资助一项大规模的公共就业项目。该提议引起了大争论。抗议继续进行的最简单的方法或许是通过更多的不合作运动，这样做能够这样做让人们自以为是正人君子（也让人觉得受人迫害），但是就取得更广泛的支持方面成效甚少。同时，抗议者们的政治作用似乎很不确定。他们谴责包括奥巴马在内的政客们试图讨好他们的做法。工会的支持虽然能够增加他们的影响力，但是这样的支持力度不一。诸如Teamsters这样的工会都参与了纽约的游行，但是在经济支持方面他们就表现的十分谨慎。西班牙的愤怒者运动使人们对于社会主义党政府更加不满，因此帮助了右翼政党，他们在下个月的大选中肯定能获胜。

In contrast with previous anti-globalisation protests, many of the latest ones seem to have started spontaneously. In some cases, what began as freelance events gradually linked up with protests in other cities and other countries as they gained momentum. That keeps technology-minded activists busy exchanging messages and tactics, but it does not amount to an orchestrated global push.
和以前的反对全球化的抗议活动相比，近来的很多活动都是自发的。在一些情况下，一些起初的自由活动随着声势的加强逐渐和其他省市或国家的抗议活动联系了起来。这使得善于利用技术的活动者们忙于交换信息和对策，但这并不是一场协同一致的全球性活动。

The scene across Europe is similar. A tent city outside St Paul’s Cathedral in London, best known for royal weddings, is festooned with slogans, chiefly bashing bankers (though one offers “free hugs”). A friendly cathedral cleric persuaded police not to move the protest, at least for now (if it becomes an eyesore, views may change). Joanna Wilde, a chatty Australian who works in tourism, says she will stay “till we get what we want”—even if, as in America, what that might be is unclear. Her pal Jan wants “more equality and empathy”. Jamie Lee, a student washing cups in a makeshift kitchen, says the camp is “the beginning of the end of global capitalism”. A ten-point list of demands blasts tax havens and the influence of business over politics.
欧洲的情况同美国差不多。著名的皇室婚礼举行地圣保罗教堂外支起了一个个帐篷，帐篷上面贴满了标语，标语的主要内容都是抨击银行家的（但也有一个上面写着“免费拥抱”）。一位有好的教堂神职人员劝说警方不要把抗议者们赶走，至少因为现在时机不合适（如果抗议活动变成政府的眼中钉，人们的观点可能会改变）。在旅游行业工作的健谈的澳大利亚人Joanna Wilde说在“得不到我们想要的”她就不离开。尽管她这样说，“我们想要的”同在美国一样，获取不清楚是什么。她的朋友Jan希望“更加平等，更加相通”。在一个临时帐篷里洗杯子的学生Jamie Lee说抗议活动是全球资本主义瓦解的开始。一个列有十个要求的清单上批判避税天堂和商业对于政治的影响。

Protests in Germany (where a small tent city now nestles under the shadow of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt) are more middle-class and even more focused. They have unleashed an overdue debate on the country’s universal banks. A 20-year-old called Wolfram Siener bested two leading financiers on television. Wolfgang Sch?uble, the finance minister, said the protests should be taken seriously. Sigmar Gabriel, leader of the opposition Social Democrats, said banks and the financial markets had worked “massively against the common good”—because politicians let them. (He was in government until October 2009.) Attac Deutschland, a longer-standing anti-globalisation group, joined up with Occupy Frankfurt. They want to tax wealth and bank profits, and to break up big banks.
德国的抗议活动（在法兰克福的欧洲中央银行大楼下支起了一个小型帐篷城）的参与者多来自中产阶级，而且目标更加集中。他们引发了一场就该国全能银行迟来的辩论。20多岁的Wolfram Siener在电视辩论中打败了两位著名的金融界人士。财政部长Wolfgang Sch?uble认为应该认真对待此次抗议活动。在野党社会民主党党首Sigmar Gabriel（2009年10月份之前他一直在政府就职）认为银行和金融市场“极力破坏公共利益”，因为是受政客们所使。长期的，全球化组织Attac Deutschland参加了“占领法兰克福”运动。他们希望对富人和银行利润征税，解散大银行。

Italy is very different. Banks there have not needed bailing out. Discontent among young Italians stems rather from burning resentment at the lack of opportunity in an economy that has been at a virtual standstill for more than ten years. But that does not explain the violence. Minutes after the start of a peaceful march by several tens of thousands through the centre of Rome, masked protesters looted a supermarket, defiled a church, set cars alight and battled police in a square near a cathedral. A crude bomb planted outside a bank badly injured a peaceful protester who tried to move it to safety. Italy’s interior minister, Roberto Maroni, rightly noted that the clashes could have been lethal. A detachment of riot police narrowly escaped from an armoured van that was set alight by the protesters and exploded.
意大利的情况不同。当地银行不需要政府纾困。实际上意大利经济已经十多年都停滞不前，人们对于缺少发展机会表示愤恨，意大利年轻人的不满则更是因此不满。但这并不是暴力活动的原因。成年上万的人在罗马市中心和平游行几分钟后，一些头戴面具的抗议者们就抢劫了一家超市，践踏了一所教堂，烧毁了车辆，在一大教堂附近的广场上同警察产生冲突。一个放置在银行外面的土炸弹把一个试图将其运走的和平示威者炸成重伤。意大利内政部长Roberto Maroni说的很正确，这些冲突可能是致命的。一个被抗议者点燃后爆炸的装甲小货车险些夺走了一个制止暴乱的警察小分队的人的性命。

Some blame poor work by police demoralised by pay cuts. Mr Maroni wants tougher powers against protests and the mayor has banned marches for a month. Some blame communities of far-leftists who are mostly ex-squatters. One in Turin, called Askatasuna, carried a statement on its website that celebrated mass resistance and “sacred rage” against austerity.
一些人责备警察们因为薪水减少意志消沉，工作做得不好。Maroni先生希望采取更加严厉的措施打击抗议活动，罗马市长下令禁止在该市举行游行，为期一个月。一些人批评了极左势力的人的团体，这些人中的大部分人曾经都擅自占用过别人的土地。都灵的Askatasuna社团在其网站上发表声明支持人们就紧缩措施的反对和“不用质疑的愤怒”。

Two dangers await the campers. One is capture by outsiders, either opportunistic or batty, who wish to revive Trotskyism or bash America. Such causes may draw more support from enthusiasts, but for the mainstream that merely worries about reckless banks and a sagging economy, they make the protests look tired and familiar, not new and fresh.
抗议者们面对两大危险。第一个被外部人所利用，这些人不是机会主义者就是笨头笨脑。他们希望复兴托洛茨基主义（主张通过革命在全球实现社会主义）或打垮美国。这些理由或许能从热烈支持者那里得到更多的支持。但是对于那些担心鲁莽的银行及衰退的经济的主流群体而言，这些人让这些抗议活动看起来俗套无味，没有新鲜感。

The second danger is that the protest consumes its own energy. Managing a large camp site in a city centre means mundane attention to detail, from toilets to rules on loud music, drugs, smoking and drinking. Keeping going will get harder as the weather chills. On top of that come the problems of managing proceedings in what is in effect a huge debating society, in which everyone has a say, and speeches are relayed by “human microphones”—chanted sentence by sentence by the participants. All that gets tedious after a while.
第二个危险是抗议活动在消耗着自己的力量。在一个城市中心管理一个营地意味着注重从厕所到大声音乐，毒品，抽烟，喝酒规定等的细节问题，这是很乏味的。随着天气变冷，继续坚持下去将变得更加困难。除此之外，还有在这个实际上是一个大的辩论社会中管理过程的问题。着这个社会里人人都有发言权，发言都是由“人力麦克风”传递的，参与者们亿一句接一句的把发言传递下去。这样不久便会变得乏味起来。

The protests’ vague message chimes with a public sense of unfocused dismay. But this is not yet having any clear effect on politics, or the wider course of events. Crucially, most protests lack the sort of support from organised labour that crippled Greece this week. Only if that changes can they be a threat to elected governments. The protesters can occupy world’s financial markets physically, but they have not shown they can spook them. However if doubts grow about the ability of governments in Spain or Italy to enforce tax rises and spending cuts, the result could be a collapse in lenders’ confidence. With more muscle behind them, the protesters could yet change the world, though the shift might not be to anyone’s advantage.
抗议者们不清楚的信息和公共没有中心失落感一致。但这对政治或是更大范围的的事件上并没有产生明确的影响。关键的是，大部分的抗议活动缺少本周使希腊经济陷于瘫痪的有组织的工人们的支持。只有改变这种情况，他们才能对当选政府构成威胁。抗议者们可以占领全球的金融市场，但是还没有证明自己可以吓到它们。但是如果人们对西班牙或意大利政府提高税收，削减开支的能力更加怀疑，那么结果可能使借贷国家对其丧失信心。抗议者们影响力日渐增加，他们总有一天能改变世界，尽管这样的改变并不是对每个人都有利。

1. proliferate  v. 扩散2. consensus n.舆论3. encampment  n.宿营4. underprice  v.使价格定低的太多5. disobedience n. 不服从6. military  adj. 军事的7.cathedral  n. 大教堂8. detachment n. 分离, 分遣队9. have effect on … 对……有影响