经济学人下载:核工业可能被判缓刑 重启核电站?

Business Business under Japan's new government Are nukes back?
商业 日本新政府背后的交易 重启核电站？

The nuclear industry may get a reprieve
核工业可能被判缓刑

ELECTION victory celebrations in Japan are usually sober affairs: no booze, the obligatory "Banzai!", and the endearing habit of holding aloft a fresh sea bream, which is a good-luck charm and a tasty ingredient for soup to ladle out to supporters.
日本人庆祝大选胜利向来淡定：不必酒宴相庆， 只需大呼"万岁！"，这被视为好运的呼声，以及令人喜爱的习俗：奉上一条新鲜的海鲤，烹制出美味的海鲤汤，供支持者们伏惟尚飨。

Not so on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
东京证券交易所也不例外。

Jubilation at the landslide win of Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on December 16th raised share prices to the rafters.
12月16日自民党主席安倍晋三以压倒性的胜利赢得选举，股价以涨幅收盘。

The markets were celebrating a slide in the yen, which may make ailing Japanese exporters such as Sharp, an electronics firm, more competitive.
市场则以日元贬值来庆祝这场胜利，这样可以让病态的日本出口企业，如电子公司夏普，更具竞争力。

Sotto voce, there was also joy that Japan's "nuclear village" appears to be back in business.
嘘！这同样对日本 "核村庄"回归经营状态是个喜讯。

During earlier decades in power, LDP governments backed nuclear energy to the hilt, brushing aside worries about safety.
自民党政府在早期几十年的执政期间，就曾置民众对完全问题的担心于不顾，不遗余力地支持核能。

In the two days after the election the shares of Tokyo Electric (TEPCO), the owner of the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant, surged by 56%.
大选过后的两天时间里，拥有福岛第一核电站的东京电力（TEPCO），其股价飙涨了56%。

Investors bet that the new government would allow Japan's reactors, almost all of which have been idle since being struck by an earthquake in 2011, to restart.
投资者们打赌说新政府会重启因受2011年地震打击而闲置的日本核反应堆。

That may be wishful thinking.
这恐怕有些痴心妄想了。

Mr Abe may want to steer clear of the sensitive nuclear issue until upper-house elections in mid-2013.
在2013年中期举行上议院选举之前，安倍首相可能不愿谈及原子能这样的敏感话题。

If so, a time frame agreed with TEPCO's 77 banks for restarting the first of its seven Kashiwazaki-Kariwa reactors in Niigata prefecture may be missed.
若真是这样，与东京电力77家银行达成的关于重启位于新泻县七个柏崎刈羽核反应堆中一个的时间期限可能错过。

TEPCO says each stalled reactor costs it 100 billion yen ($1.2 billion) in lost profit each year.
东京电力公司表示，每一个停顿反应堆造成每年损失100亿日元（约合12亿美元）利润。

Furthermore, the nuclear industry now has an independent watchdog, the Nuclear Regulation Authority, which is showing teeth.
此外，核工业现在已经有独立的监管部门，呲牙相向的原子能规制委员会。

Its investigators have so far issued seismic warnings against two nuclear power plants, which may lead to their permanent mothballing.
迄今为止，其调查人员已经对两个核电站发布了地震预警，这可能导致这两个核电站永久封存。

By law, even an LDP government should be unable to boss the watchdog around.
根据法律，即使自民党政府亦无权指挥监管部门围着政府转。

Yet a share-price rally may still be warranted.
然而股价反弹可能仍然言之过早。

TEPCO's share price is barely a tenth of what it was before the disaster.
东京电力的股价只不过是灾难前的十分之一。

That reflects a genuine fear that the company may go bust.
这也反映出对该公司可能破产确实存在担忧。

Surely, investors mutter, the LDP remains chummy enough with Japan's nuclear utilities not to let any of them collapse into bankruptcy?
确实，投资者们揣度的是，自民党与日本原子能事业亲密无间的关系就不会放任他们中的任何一家公司倒闭吗？