经济学人下载:乌克兰危机 不是同一场电影

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Crisis in Ukraine
乌克兰危机

Not the same movie
不是同一场电影

The situation in Ukraine is volatile and dangerous. The West must act
对于乌克兰目前动荡，危险的局势，西方国家必须采取行动。

SAME places. Same slogans.
同样的地点，同样的口号，

Same icy weather. Same villain: Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine's thuggish president.
同样的冰天雪地，针对同一个恶人—乌克兰的暗杀总统亚努科维奇。

The protesters in Kiev want him out, just as the Orange revolutionaries of 2004 wanted an election that had been rigged in his favour to be annulled.
2004年基辅的橙色革命，示威者们对竞选中的舞弊行为表示抗议，9年后同样在基辅示威者们再次抗议他的继任。

Outsiders may be tempted to think that the current turmoil is simply a rerun of the previous bout, and is likewise destined to end peacefully.
局外人也许会认为目前的混乱仅仅是一次历史的重演，最后注定将和平收场。

But the latest stand-off is far more volatile—and much too dangerous for the West to watch blithely as it develops.
但是最近的对峙局面越来越不稳定，对于西方国家来说，冷眼旁观其发展是非常危险的。

The biggest change is in leadership, on all sides.
最大的变化是全方位的领导层变化。

In 2004 the Orange brigades had clear leaders, a definite aim and formidable discipline.
2004年橙色派有明确的领导层，清晰的目标和严谨的纪律。

Partly because, in office, those leaders thoroughly discredited themselves, today's crowds lack all these assets.
一部分原因是因为，在办公时那些领导者们彻底败坏了自己的名声，而这些却是现在民众所缺少的。

The protests were sparked by Mr Yanukovych's decision to reject a trade deal with the European Union, which most Ukrainians supported; but the anger goes much wider, embracing the country's entire corrupt, dysfunctional governing class.
示威活动在亚努科维奇决定拒绝签署大多数乌克兰人支持的与欧盟签署贸易协议时一触即发。

The opposition politicians who are trying to surf this legitimate fury have less control over the protesters than social media do, and could not disperse them even if they wanted to.
但令人愤怒的远不仅此，还有整个国家的腐败风气以及统治阶级的功能失调。那些试图通过网络合法表达愤怒的反对派政治家比社会媒体更难控制，即使他们很想，却也难分散。

The regime is dangerously different, too.
该政权也截然不同。

In 2004 the wily outgoing president, Leonid Kuchma, ultimately brokered a solution.
2004年，即将离任老谋深算的总统库奇马最后提出了一个解决方案。

Mr Yanukovych, by contrast, is loth to compromise, seeing politics as a winner-takes-all, life-and-death struggle—much like his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, who helped to cause the crisis by cajoling him to reject the EU.
相反地，亚努科维奇总统不愿妥协，将政治看做一场赢者得天下，生与死的斗争，这点很像俄罗斯总统，弗拉迪米尔普京总统，正是他哄骗亚努科维奇拒绝签署欧盟协议导致危机的爆发。

For Mr Putin the Orange revolution was a humiliation, which he wrongly believed had been orchestrated by the West;
对于普京来说，橙色革命时一种耻辱，因为他错误的认为这是由西方国家策划的。

since 2004 he has himself become more ruthless, both geopolitically and towards dissent.
从2004年开始，无论对地缘政治还是持不同政见者，普京都更显无情。

The United States, meanwhile, which leant on Mr Kuchma in 2004, has lost interest.
同时，2004年倚靠库奇马总统的美国对这些也失去了兴趣。

The upshot of all this is violence.
这一切的结果就是暴力。

The crushing of a protest camp on November 30th was more brutal than anything done during the Orange revolution, which resembled a month-long rock festival as much as a political upheaval.
11月30日，破碎的抗议营地比类似为期一个月摇滚音乐节的橙色革命政治动乱的任何时期更加残酷。

This time protesters have blockaded streets and occupied municipal buildings; riot police have beaten demonstrators and journalists; agents provocateurs have tried to discredit the crowd and so excuse the repression.
这个时期，抗议者封锁了街道和被占领的城市建筑，防暴警察殴打示威者和记者，间谍试图抹黑群众并以此镇压。

The security services, which wavered in 2004, have been tamed by Mr Yanukovych.
2004年时有些动摇的安全服务已被亚努科维奇镇压下来。

To minimise scruples, he has borrowed the old Russian trick of busing goons to Kiev from elsewhere.
为了减少顾虑，他甚至借用俄罗斯老把戏从其他地方运来受雇暴徒到基辅。

The violence could get much worse.
这场暴力事件可能会愈演愈烈。

The fire this time
激烈的时期

Even by the standards of eastern Europe, Ukraine's history is appallingly bloodstained.
即使以东欧的标准，乌克兰的历史依然是惊人的血迹斑斑。

The memory of its 20th-century horrors has helped to defuse internal tensions since the country became independent in 1991.
自从1992年独立以来，20世纪的恐怖记忆稍许缓解了内部紧张局势。

But it remains a fragile polity, divided between Russian- and Ukrainian-speakers, manipulated by Moscow and now threatened by a teetering economy, an ominous budget deficit and huge debts.
但是它仍然是一个脆弱的国家，受俄罗斯和乌克兰领导者的影响，受到莫斯科的控制，和目前不详的预算赤字，巨额负债这些摇摇欲坠的经济威胁。

Nationalism, once confined to pockets of western Ukraine, has spread.
民族主义，曾局限于乌克兰西部的思想已逐渐蔓延开。

Irreconcilable forces are tussling for control of the capital.
不可调和的力量正角逐着想要控制这个国家。

Perhaps the protests will fizzle out in the slush.
也许，示威活动将会在这一团糟的形势下不了了之。

But equally this nation of 46m people, bordering on four EU countries, could combust.
但是这个接壤4个欧盟国家的4600万民众也可能会受到波及。

The person best-placed to avoid that outcome is Mr Yanukovych.
可以最好的避免这种后果的人是亚努科维奇。

His record—nobbling courts and the media, persecuting opponents, coddling cronies—justifies the protesters' call for a snap presidential vote.
诈骗法院和媒体，迫害对手，纵容亲信，他的这些记录都作为证据让抗议者呼吁提前举行总统选举。

The same goes for parliamentary elections: the Rada, Ukraine's parliament, is a nest of scoundrels and oligarchs' placemen, who should be replaced.
同样的还有议会选举，拉达，包含一群乌合之众和寡头政治执行者的乌克兰议会应该被取代。

Mr Yanukovych is unlikely to allow either sort of election, but even he must see that his country is becoming ungovernable.
亚努科维奇是不可能允许进行这任何一种选举，但是他必须明白他的国家正变得不受控制。

This week his government survived a no-confidence vote.
本周他的政府得到的投票数不太乐观。

He should sack it anyway and, as a minimal political concession, bring the main opposition parties into a new coalition.
作为一个最小的政治让步，无论如何他应该解散它，将主要的野党加入新的联盟。

And the West should ensure that any further violence has a high price.
西方国家应该明白进一步的暴乱将会产生高昂的代价。

By coincidence the OSCE, an international forum, was holding a powwow in Kiev on December 5th and 6th.
巧合的是欧安组织，一个国际论坛，于12月5日和6日在基辅举行一场仪式。

The EU's envoys should be at the barricades, facing down the skull-crackers—not in support of any politician but in the cause of peaceful protest.
欧盟特使应该会遇见路障，面对暴乱，不应该支持任何政党而是弄清和平抗议的原因。

And the Europeans should make clear to Mr Yanukovych and his henchmen that, in the event of an escalation, they will be punished where it hurts—through travel bans, and asset and bank-account freezes.
欧洲国家应该让亚努科维奇和他的追随者清楚的意识到事件的不断扩大，他们将会受到旅游禁令，冻结资产和银行账户的相应惩罚。

The country may be almost bankrupt, but its ruling clique is not.
这个国家很有可能会破产，但它的统治集团却不会。

America should do the same.
美国也应如此，

But the onus is on the EU. Having helped to precipitate this crisis, it cannot walk away from it.
但是责任在于欧盟，它加速了这场危机的发生，但却又离不开它。

Even Mr Putin, who likes his neighbours weak, should recognise that his meddling, and Ukraine's own pathologies, have brought it to the brink of tragedy.
即使是喜欢邻国较弱的普京也必须承认他的干涉和乌克兰自己的病症最后导致了这场悲剧的爆发。