经济学人下载:如何赢得99.6%的选票 许多国会议员没有竞争对手

Lexington
莱克星顿

How to win 99.6% of the vote
如何赢得99.6%的选票

Too many members of Congress are running unopposed
许多国会议员没有竞争对手

DAYS before he seeks re-election to Congress for an eighth time, Representative Mike Capuano of Massachusetts has yet to order a single bumper sticker or “I Like Mike” lawn sign. That is not as risky as it might sound. In his district, a Democratic bastion that covers the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, chunks of Harvard University and swathes of blue-collar Boston, Mr Capuano faces no Republican opponent—or opposition of any kind. His is the only name that will appear on the ballot on November 4th.
在他第八次进行国会再选的前几天，马萨诸塞州的众议员迈克·卡普阿诺打算购一款车尾贴，或者“我爱迈克”之类的草地竞选标语。这并不像听起来那么冒险。在这个地区，民主党堡垒覆盖了麻省理工学院、哈佛大学大片地区以及波士顿大部分的蓝领阶层，卡普阿诺没有任何共和党对手，也没有任何反对派。他是唯一一个会出现在11月4日竞选名单中的人。

This is no novelty for Mr Capuano. After he first won the seat in 1998, he never faced a Republican opponent again, often cruising to victory with such Cuban-style scores as 99.6% of the vote. Pondering past races, he struggles to recall details of the few independents who have challenged him. “I had a Communist, right?” he asks an aide. “A Socialist? Six years ago? Four?”
这对卡普阿诺来说并不奇怪。在他于1998年首次赢得该席位后，他就再没遇到共和党对手了，并通常以古巴风格的得票—99.6%的选票立于不败之地。回想过去的竞选，他几乎快想不起来那少数几个和他竞选的独立派的资料了。“有个共产党，是不是？还有个社会党？六年前还是四年前来着？”他向一个副官问道。

Few others in Congress have been as safe for as long. But Mr Capuano has more company than before. Ever-fewer races for the House of Representatives are closely fought, leaving four-fifths of that body's 435 members with little to fear on polling day. Their doomed challengers—formerly stirred to action by a mix of idealism, ambition, vanity and (at times) self-delusion—seem at last to be noticing the odds against them. Add on the soaring costs of any election, and a growing number are quitting the field.
国会中很少有人能够安全坐这么久的位子。但卡普阿诺拥有的同伴比之前更多了。众议院中已经很少有非常激烈的竞选了，使得这个团体435名成员的五分之四在竞选日都无需担忧。他们命定的竞争者曾经抱着理想主义、野心、虚荣和（偶尔的）自欺欺人四处活动，但最后都会发现成功机会渺茫。再加上每场选举高额的费用，越来越多的人退出了战场。

In 2014 Republicans have put up no challenger in 37 House races, while Democrats are ceding 32 districts without a fight, according to David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report. A further eight House districts will see no contest between the main parties, thanks to a “top two” primary system used in Washington state and California, in which ordinary voters (rather than just party members) can pick the two candidates who compete for each seat in the general election—a move sold as a cure-all for partisan extremism, but which can turn safe districts into blue-on-blue and red-on-red fights. That total of 77 single-party House races is high by recent standards and marks a big jump since 2012, when there were 45 of them. Stephen Colbert, a comedian, once persuaded aFlorida congressman running unopposed to tell the camera that he liked cocaine and prostitutes, by arguing that it didn't matter what he said because he couldn't possibly lose.
据库克政治报告的大卫·沃瑟曼称，2014年共和党在37场众议院竞选中都没有遇到对手，而民主党毫不抵抗地放弃了32个选区。在另外八个众议院选区中，由于华盛顿州和加州使用了“两大”主系统，这两个州中普通选民（而不是只有党派成员）可以选择两位候选人在大选中争夺各自的席位，因此主要党派之间都不会发生竞争。这项行动是解决党派极端主义的良药，但也会将安全区域变成党派内部斗争。据最近的标准来看，77场单党派众议院竞选数量很多，而2012年只有45场，这标志着自2012年起的一次巨大飞跃。喜剧演员斯蒂芬·科尔伯特曾经劝说一名没有遇到对手的佛罗里达国会议员在镜头前称他喜欢可卡因和妓女，并争辩说他说什么都没关系，因为他不可能落选

One-party districts cannot be good for democracy. In Massachusetts this year Republicans are running in only three of nine House races and are contesting half the seats in the state legislature. Mr Capuano, a plain-speaking former mayor, says that having a Republican opponent would have “virtually no impact” on him. In such a safe seat, danger comes from his own side. His elections are fought months before polling day, he explains. Any Democratic challengers have a narrow window to show themselves by making exploratory calls, collecting signatures, turning up to public events, and generally testing whether the congressman is vulnerable. Mr Capuano aims to be “very conscientious” about constituency service at all times, but between January and April in election years, “I step on the gas.” All signs of possible weakness are watched for. Whenever he runs unopposed in his Democratic primary he counts the blank votes cast, precinct by precinct, knowing that rivals are doing the same.
一党专政区对民主党来说并无好处。今年在马萨诸塞州共和党仅参与了九场众议院竞选中的三场，竞选立法机关中的半数席位。卡普阿诺这名讲话直率的前市长称，拥有一名共和党对手对他来说“事实上毫无影响”。在这个安全的职位上，危险来自于内部。他解释说他的选举之战在大选日数月前就已经开始了。每一名民主党竞选者都有一个小窗口，可以通过打考察电话、收集签名、转向公共活动，以及普遍检测国会议员是否有弱点来展示自己。卡普阿诺旨在每时每刻都对选民服务“非常尽责”，但在竞选年一月至四月期间，“我加紧了速度。”时刻都有人盯着他表现出来的任何可能的弱点迹象。每次他毫无阻力地通过民主党初选时，他都会一个选区一个选区地计算空白选票，因为他知道他的竞争对手也在这样做。

In today's Democratic Party, challengers seldom invoke ideology, Mr Capuano notes, contrasting his lot with that of Republican incumbents who must fear organised attacks from the right. In politics, Republicans are like dogs, working as a pack, he suggests: “Democrats are the cats.” The congressman, 62, has something of the tom-cat about him: it is possible to imagine him ruling a maze of alleys, with many scars and a torn ear. Asked about fund-raising (he has 628,000 cash on hand, according to his most recent electoral filing), he growls: “I do my share.” Almost all will be given to other Democrats, he explains, though he will keep enough money “to dissuade potential opponents”.
卡普阿诺说明，在如今的民主党中，竞争者们很少会换起意识形态，并将他的命运与需要担心右翼有组织攻击的共和党在位者进行了对比。在政治方面，共和党们就像狗一样，成群结队地工作，他暗示说：“民主党就是猫。”这位62岁的国会议员在某些方面和汤姆猫有点像：可以想象，他现在带着许多伤疤和撕裂的耳朵管理着一个迷宫般的小巷。当问到筹集资金（据他最近的选举文件表明，如今他手头有628,000美元）时，他愤愤不平：“我筹集了我的份额。”他解释说，几乎所有的资金都要给其他民主党，尽管他会保留足够的资金“来阻止潜在的竞争对手”。

An old alley-cat might call Curt Myers an idealistic pup. A 21-year old Republican college student from Brookline, just outside Mr Capuano's fief, he has chosen to mount a hopeless bid for the Massachusetts state House, running in his home district of 15th Norfolk, a hotbed of liberalism which last saw a Republican candidate before he was born. He is realistic about his chances, but wants to give his home town “the debate it deserves”. He has beaten his fund-raising target of 25,000—enough to build a website and buy some yard signs. He is heartened that the Democratic incumbent has agreed to a public debate and that even “far-left” folk say they are glad that he is running—though they will not vote for him. Less hearteningly, he has been spat on three times for being a Republican. Alas for fans of democratic accountability, Mr Myers does not think he would run for Congress against similarly bleak odds.
老野猫或许会把科特·迈尔斯称作唯心主义的畜生。他是一名来自布鲁克莱恩的21岁共和党大学生，他在卡普阿诺的地盘之外选择为马萨诸塞州议会增加一个无望的筹码，在他家乡的第十五选区诺福克中组织竞选，这个地方是自由主义的温床，在这名大学生出生之前曾经诞生过共和党候选人。他的选择很务实，就是希望给予他的家乡一场“应有的辩论”。他超过了自己的资金筹集目标25,000美元—这笔钱足够建立起一个网站并购买一些庭院标语了。民主党在职者同意举行公开辩论，即使是“最左翼”分子也说他们很高兴看到他在竞选—尽管他们不会为他投票，这些都极大地鼓舞了他。但不那么让人高兴的是，他的共和党身份已经被人唾弃了三次了。迈尔斯认为他不会参与国会竞选，因为获胜希望同样不大，这对于民主责任制粉丝来说是很不幸的。

Showing up is 80% of life
出席占据了80%的生活

In part, this is a story about the professionalisation of politics. Even unwinnable House races are now monitored by cold-eyed number-crunchers. Both parties fear zealous amateurs who may pollute their national brand. They also fret about the effect that one race may have on another. For example, in Massachusetts Republicans have a good chance of winning the governorship so long as turnout is not too high (because conservatives are more likely to vote). So a strong Republican challenge in a close House race might be counter-productive, spurring Democrats to pour in resources, raising turnout and kneecapping the chances of the Republican in the more important race.
在某种程度上，这是个政治职业化的故事。即使是坚不可摧的众议院竞选如今也在眼神冷峻的统计师们的监控之下。两党都担忧热心的党外人士会败坏他们在国内树立的品牌形象。他们同样也烦恼一场竞选会影响另一个。例如，在马萨诸塞州，只要出席率不高，共和党就很有可能赢得州长职位，因为在这种情况下保守党们更可能会投票。因此共和党在最近的众议院竞选中发起的有力挑战，很可能会适得其反，刺激民主党们大量投入资源，提高出席率，削弱共和党在更加重要的竞选中获胜的几率。

Why stop at 77 seats with no inter-party contest, then? “It's going to get worse before it gets better,” predicts a Republican bigwig. Such political vacuums surely cannot last indefinitely: voters would not tolerate a House with hundreds of uncontested seats, touch wood. Until then, the creaking of a two-party system in distress will grow louder.
为什么在没有党际竞争的情况下赢得了77个席位之后就止步了呢？接下来要做什么？一名共和党权贵称，“在情况变好之前，会先变得更坏”。这种政治真空当然不会无限期延续：选民们不会容忍一个议院有几百个没有竞争的席位，但愿好运。直到那时，处在困境之中的两党制度竞争会越来越激烈。