经济学人下载:俄罗斯和卢布 自己种下的恶果自己承受

Russia and the rouble
俄罗斯和卢布

As ye sow, so shall ye reap
自己种下的恶果，自己承受

The collapse in the rouble is caused by Vladimir Putin's belligerence, greed and paranoia
由于弗拉基米尔普京的挑衅、贪婪以及偏执，导致卢布崩溃

VLADIMIR PUTIN has successfully suppressed dissent, squeezed out opposition and clamped down on the media, but he has not been able to control global financial markets. In recent days the rouble has collapsed; it has lost almost 40% of its value over three weeks. This is the biggest crisis of Mr Putin's reign—and it is entirely his fault.
弗拉基米尔普京成功压制了异议，挤出了反对者，严厉打击了媒体，但是他还是没能控制国际金融市场。近期卢布崩盘，过去三周，卢布价值暴跌40%。这是普京当政期间遭遇的最大的危机—而且这完全就是普京的错。

Mr Putin will no doubt blame all the usual suspects—Western speculators who bet against his currency, Western imperialists who imposed sanctions on his economy, Western economists who failed to forecast that the oil price (down by half over six months) would fall as far as it has and, of course, Western newspapers that told him that his policies would lead to disaster. But the crisis is the inevitable consequence of Putinism—of aggression abroad and a corrupt-and-control economy at home.
毫无疑问，普京将会把责任归咎于所有的嫌疑人身上—下赌注反对卢布的西方投机商，对俄罗斯经济采取制裁的西方帝国主义者，没能预测油价将会下跌到当前水平（过去六个月下跌了一半）的西方经济学家们；当然还有告诉他他的政策将会带来灾难的西方报纸。但是这场危机是普京主义不可避免的结果——国外挑衅加上国内受贿控制经济。

Kleptocracy and its consequences
腐朽政府及其后果

The sanctions were imposed by the West because of his conduct in the Ukraine, where he has, among many things, seized territory, engineered a war and refused to investigate the shooting down of a civilian airliner. Meanwhile, he has failed to reform Russia's economy, leaving it dependent on the energy industry that he has carved up among his friends. Had he chosen to build an economy based on the rule of law and competition rather than patronage and corruption, things would have looked very different.
西方采取制裁是因为他在乌克兰的行为，他控制了该领土，密谋策划了一场战争，拒绝调查一架民航飞机被击落的事件。同时，俄罗斯经济改革失败，使得俄罗斯依赖于他从朋友那里瓜分来的能源工业上。如果他选择建立一个基于法制和竞争而不是互利互惠和受贿的经济体系，那么现在就会是另一番景象。

In the short term, there is not a great deal that Mr Putin can do to get his country out of the mess that he has made. A huge interest-rate rise this week, following previous large increases, has not worked. Capital controls are not the answer. They can sometimes be effectively employed against short-term speculation, but in this case investors are rightly worried about an economy that is so reliant on one sector. Anyway, in such a lawless place, capital controls would be porous and could trigger runs on the banks which the country could ill afford. Russia still has reserves of $370 billion, but it also has foreign-currency debts of more than $600 billion.
短期来看，普京不能让俄罗斯摆脱掉他制造的这个困境。紧接着前期的大幅上涨，本周利率大幅上升，但并没有起作用。资本控制不是解决问题的答案。资本控制有时在对抗短期投机买卖方面能起到有效作用，但是在这个问题中，投资者有理由担心一个这么依赖于某一方面的经济是否可靠。不管怎样，在这样一个目无法纪的地方，资本控制将会有很多漏洞，而且会引发挤兑，这点国家将很难承担。俄罗斯还有3700亿美元储备金，但是他还有超过6千亿美金的外债。

To improve the long-term prospects of an economy that is heading into a deep recession, two bigger changes are needed. The first is that Russia should pull back from eastern Ukraine and seek some accommodation with the government in Kiev and the West that could lead to the lifting of sanctions. The second is a change to the country's economic model. Mr Putin needs to take advantage of the fall in the value of the currency to diversify away from excess dependence on oil and gas, which make up two-thirds of exports; to improve the competitiveness of manufacturing and high-tech industry; to strengthen the rule of law; and to clean up corruption. To implement all this he should replace his pliant prime minister (and previous president), Dmitry Medvedev, with a credible economist such as Alexei Kudrin, who was a respected finance minister for 11 years. His oligarch chums might not like this, but Russians would be better off.
为了提高陷入深度衰退的经济长期繁荣，需要两大方面的改变。第一个是俄罗斯从乌克兰东边撤兵，而且还要寻求和基辅政府以及可以解除制裁的西方国家之间的调解。第二个方面是改变国家的经济模式。普京需要利用货币价值的下跌，脱离对油和天然气的过度依赖，进行多元化发展，提高制造业和高科技产业的竞争力，加强法律，清理腐败。要实现上面这些，他要替换掉他容易摆布的首相（他也是前总统），德米特里梅德韦杰夫，换成可靠的经济学家如受尊敬的财政部长亚力克西库德林，他已任该职11年。他的寡头政治家朋友们可能不喜欢这个，但是俄罗斯人可能会更富裕。

Sadly, none of this is likely to happen. Mr Putin will probably double down, railing against Western iniquity, stifling all dissent at home, destabilising Ukraine still more and interfering further in other neighbouring countries. And he will pursue a course of growing autarky, severing as many of Russia's economic and financial links to the West as he can.
遗憾的是，两者都不可能发生。普京可能会进行双重打击，怒斥西方的不公正，压制国内所有异议，使得乌克兰的政局更加动荡，更深入地干预其他邻国。他会追求自给自足，切断尽可能多的俄罗斯和西方的经济金融联系。

A brazenly nationalist course will impoverish Russia further, making it impossible for Mr Putin to keep delivering rising living standards. He will gamble that the Russian people are foolish enough to trade prosperity for nationalistic fervour. This newspaper hopes he is wrong.
一个厚颜无耻的民族主义进程会让俄罗斯更加贫穷，也会让普京更加不可能提高人民的生活质量。他在赌俄罗斯人民足够愚蠢，愿意用富裕来换取民族主义热情。本报希望他是错误的。