经济学人下载:全球面临债务危机 中国为何能全身而退?

You can find bubbliness in bits of American finance, including the corporate-bond market, and some nasty off-balance-sheet liabilities like student loans and public-sector pensions, but America does not look like a source of imminent trouble.
你可以在美国金融里找到泡沫碎片，包括证券市场，和一些严重的表外负债，像学生贷款和公共部门养老金，但是美国看起来并不会产生迫在眉睫的麻烦。

Britain and Japan have changed less. Abenomics has improved Japan's prospects, but government debt is still close to 250% of GDP.
英国和日本改变较少。安备经济学已提高日本的经济预期但是，政府债务仍相当于GDP的250%左右。

In Britain the combination of budget cuts and weak private investment has produced a recovery that is built on the same ingredients—particularly rising house prices—that caused the last bust.
在英国，预算减少与个人投资力弱双重作用之下，催生了建立在相同因素上的复苏--尤其是不断上涨的房价---这引发了最后的破产。

Britain is not about to fell the world economy, but growth that was based more on investment, both public and private, would be an awful lot safer.
英国并不打算让世界经济雪上加霜，但基于更多公共和私人投资的增长将极其缓慢。

What about emerging economies, many of which have seen a big run-up in debt?
许多新兴经济体债务迅猛增高，他们情况如何？

China is often dubbed a Lehman-in-the-making.
中国经常被称作“一个正在形成的雷曼兄弟”

Since 2008 credit growth in the Middle Kingdom, now the world's second-largest economy, has exploded, and by some estimates is over 200% of GDP.
自2008年起中国信贷开始增长，现在，这个位居世界第二的经济大国，已经爆炸，并且据估计，其债务已经相当于GDP的200%左右。

China's financial system has few international connections.
中国金融体系同国际联系较少。

But, as in America in 2008, there is uncertainty about the true size of its debts and how much of them will be repaid.
但是，正如2008年的美国，中国也不确定其债务的真正规模以及他们将要归还的债务总量。

The danger China poses depends on the third ingredient of the Lehman conflagration: how the government behaves when trouble strikes.
中国呈现的危险建立在雷曼灾难的第三个因素上，在危机来临时政府采取怎样的举措。

The country is a big net saver, the banking system is still largely deposit-funded and the government has the fiscal capacity to underwrite troubled loans.
中国是位净储存大户，银行体系仍很大程度上依靠储户存款筹资并且，政府有承担不良贷款的财政实力。

Provided it does so, the odds of a sudden collapse with global ramifications are low.
考虑到此种情况，中国银行体系受国际影响而突然崩溃的几率低。

From Brazil to Thailand, many of the other emerging economies that are now wobbling have also seen credit booms.
从巴西到泰国，其他的许多目前正步履蹒跚地新兴经济体，也已经经历了信贷热潮。

The difference with China is their vulnerability to global financial flows.
同中国不同的是，这些国家易受全球金融流动影响。

Today's drought in foreign capital is pushing down currencies like India's rupee and making current-account deficits harder to finance.
如今，外国资本匮乏，正压低像印度卢比之类的货币，并且使得往来账户赤字较难融资。

In the 1990s that dynamic caused crises. But this time round most countries' defences are more powerful.
在20世纪90年代，是这种资本的流动引发了危机。但这一次，许多国家有更有力的防御措施。

Exchange rates float, far more debt is denominated in domestic currency and reserves are fatter.
汇率浮动，更多的债务以本币计价，并且，外汇储备充裕。

Some places may be overwhelmed: our index of vulnerability has Turkey flashing reddest.Most are likely to suffer slower growth.
许多地方可能遭受重创：土耳其在脆弱指数上不断闪现红灯，其他许多国家可能遭遇经济增长放缓。

If there is one part of the world that could still bring about another global meltdown, it is the euro area.
如果说这个世界上仍有一个地方，仍然能够引爆另一场国际灾难，那么这个地方，就是欧元区。

Though less Lehman-like than a year ago, it remains a worry.
尽管情况比一年前有所好转，但是，欧元区仍然令人担忧。

Its debt problems are growing, not shrinking: European banks have thinner equity buffers than their American counterparts, and have written down far fewer debts.
欧元区债务问题并非减少而是在增加；同他们的美国同行相比，欧洲银行股本缓冲较少，欠债总额更少。

In the troubled economies on Europe's periphery recession has made it hard to reduce debt burdens of all sorts.
在欧洲周边陷入困境的国家中，经济衰退让它们更难以减少各种债务负担。

Too much austerity has proved counterproductive.
实行了太多的财政紧缩却最终事与愿违。

A destabilising political back lash remains a danger, given Europe's sky-high jobless rates.
考虑到欧洲极高的失业率，其不稳定的政治后患仍俱危险性。

Its sleepwalking leaders cannot agree on how to complete necessary reforms, such as a proper banking union, while the European Central Bank's ability to live up to its brave pledge to “do whatever it takes” to save the euro remains untested.
尽管欧洲央行践行其勇敢的承诺（不惜一切代价拯救欧元）的能力还有待观察，但欧洲茫然不知所措的领导人仍不能就如何完成诸如一场银行合适地联盟之类的必要改革，达成一致。

There may be no new Lehman-sized catastrophes on the near horizon.
也许近期不会再有新一轮，与雷曼兄弟危机同等规模的灾难爆发。

But plenty of smaller crises-in-the-making dot the landscape—and a potentially big one continues to threaten Europe.
但是小规模的潜在危机漫山遍野--和一个潜在的大危机，会持续威胁欧洲。

Five years on, global finance is a long way from safe.
五年过去了，国际金融在变安全之前，还有很长的路要走。