经济学人下载:科技股:重获信息泡沫时代高点(3)

But the latest survey reflected fears that the enthusiasm may have gone too far: 38% of managers thought that betting on tech stocks was the “most crowded trade” ; a net 9% had cut their exposure in the previous month.
但是最近的一个调查反映已经有人开始担忧是否对科技股的热情过头，38%的管理者认为在科技股上下注是最拥挤的贸易，前一个月有9%的帐户已经减持科技股了。

The risks facing the tech industry now are rather different from those that surfaced in 2000.
现在科技行业目前面临的风险和2000年的有很大不同。

Then, it became clear that many companies would burn through their cash long before they made a profit.
当时，很明显的一点是许多企业在开始盈利之前很久一直在烧钱

This time, the industry is more mature; Apple's fastest growth is surely behind it, for example.
现在，科技行业更加成熟，例如苹果公司的最快发展速度明显跟不上行业发展速度。

Whereas the sector was generally held in high regard in 2000, it is now the object of more suspicion, whether it is public concern about individuals' privacy, Donald Trump's anti-Amazon tweets or EU fines against American tech giants.
2000年科技股被普遍高度重视，现在却成了怀疑对象，是否公众会担心个人隐私问题，Donald Trump的反亚马逊tweets 或者欧盟反对美国科技巨头开出的罚单。

Regulation may yet prove a barrier to tech's long-term growth.
监管还没有被证明是科技长远发展的绊脚石。

So, history isn't repeating itself exactly.
所以，确切地说历史并没有重演。

There is nothing like the same stockmarket euphoria as there was at the turn of the century.
尽管现在有着当时的成交量，但一点也没有当时股票市场的疯狂。

Few people are trying to day-trade their way to riches or setting up a dotcom franchise to sell dog food.
没有人会想着通过一天交易就变富裕或者建立网络公司的特许经营权来出售狗粮。

And tech stocks are not as much of an outlier as they were (along with media and telecoms firms) in 2000, when many investors abandoned “old economy” companies in retailing and heavy industry.
而且，科技股（包括媒体还有电信公司）已经不再像在2000年一样是“局外人”，当时许多投资者避免投资零售业和重工业这样的“老经济”公司。

But there is still plenty that can go wrong.
但是仍然有很多误入歧途。

The overall market is on a cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio of 30—a level surpassed only in 1929 and the late 1990s.
所有的市场都在围绕30%左右的市盈率进行一个调整性周期，这个水平只在1929年和二十世纪90年代末曾被超越过。

If the Federal Reserve tightens policy too aggressively, or the American economy slips into recession (or both), tech investors will get that sinking feeling again.
如果美联储采取过于紧缩货币的政策或者美国经济变得萧条（或者两种情况都发生），那么科技股投资者就会再次感到沮丧。