经济学人下载:科技革命:内燃机迎来末日(1)

Leaders
领导者

Road Kill
内燃机之死

The internal combustion engine had a good run. But the end is in sight for the machine that changed the world
内燃机有着辉煌的过去。但是，对于这种改变了世界的机器来说，末日近在眼前。

“Human inventiveness…has still not found a mechanical process to replace horses as the propulsion for vehicles,” lamented Le Petit Journal, a French newspaper, in December 1893.
“人类的创新……至今仍未找到一种机械过程来取代马匹作为车辆的推力，”1893年12月，法国报纸《小巴黎人报》哀叹道。

Its answer was to organise the Paris-Rouen race for horseless carriages, held the following July.
它的答案是组织在来年7月举行的巴黎至鲁昂非马拉车大赛。

The 102 entrants included vehicles powered by steam, petrol, electricity, compressed air and hydraulics.
102辆入围赛车包括了以蒸汽、汽油、电力、压缩空气和液压为动力的车辆。

Only 21 qualified for the 126km (78-mile) race, which attracted huge crowds.
只有21辆车获得了资格参加这场吸引了大批观众的赛程为126公里（合78英里）的比赛。

The clear winner was the internal combustion engine.
大获全胜的赢家是内燃机。

Over the next century it would go on to power industry and change the world.
在下一个世纪中，它会继续推动工业前进并将改变世界。

But its days are numbered.
但是，它的日子已经屈指可数了。

Rapid gains in battery technology favour electric motors instead.
电池技术的飞速发展宠幸的是电动车。

In Paris in 1894 not a single electric car made it to the starting line, partly because they needed battery-replacement stations every 30km or so.
1984年，在巴黎，没有一辆电动车出现在起跑线上，一部分原因在于它们每30公里左右就需要电池更换站。

Today's electric cars, powered by lithium-ion batteries, can do much better.
今天的电动汽车，以锂电池为动力，能够做得好得多。

The Chevy Bolt has a range of 383km; Tesla fans recently drove a Model S more than 1,000km on a single charge.
雪佛兰闪电（Chevy Bolt）有382公里的最大行程；特斯拉的粉丝日前单独充了一次电，就让Model S 跑了1000多公里。

UBS, a bank, reckons the “total cost of ownership” of an electric car will reach parity with a petrol one next year—albeit at a loss to its manufacturer.
瑞银测算，一辆电动车的“拥有总成本”将在明年与拥有一辆汽油车持平——尽管这对制造厂商来说是一大损失。

It optimistically predicts electric vehicles will make up 14% of global car sales by 2025, up from 1% today.
它乐观地预测，到2025年，电动车将构成全球汽车销量的14%，比当前的1%大幅上升。

Others have more modest forecasts, but are hurriedly revising them upwards as batteries get cheaper and better—the cost per kilowatt-hour has fallen from $1,000 in 2010 to $130-200 today.
其他人有着较为保守的预测，但是，随着电池变得越来越便宜和越来越好——每千瓦小时的成本已经从2010年1000美元降至目前的130-200美元，都在匆忙地调高各自的预测。

Regulations are tightening, too.
监管也在收紧。