经济学人下载:美国大选如何影响股市(2)

Investors appear to be especially keen on downside protection around this election. In September Cameron Crise, a strategist at Bloomberg, wrote that VIX futures markets have "never had an event risk command this sort of premium". Even more unusually, VIX futures prices are elevated not just around the date of the election, but for the months between the vote on November 3rd and the inauguration on January 21st. 

在这次大选期间，投资者似乎尤其热衷于“下档保护”。今年9月，彭博（美国财经资讯公司）策略师卡梅伦·克里兹写道，VIX期货市场“从未有过事件风险导致如此高的溢价”。更不寻常的是，VIX期货价格不仅在大选前后上涨了，在11月3日投票到1月21日就职典礼之间的几个月里也在上涨。

There are plenty of reasons for investors to worry about post-election chaos: the coronavirus pandemic means an enormous number of voters will opt to avoid crowded polling stations this year and send their ballots in by post instead. These votes can take longer to count, raising the prospect of a period without a clear winner. Even once a victor is declared, a slew of lawsuits may follow. The uncertainty is exacerbated by President Donald Trump's suggestion that postal ballots may be fraudulent, and his reluctance to say that he will accept the election result. 

投资者有很多理由担心选举后的混乱局面：新冠肺炎这一流行病意味着今年将有大量选民会选择避开拥挤的投票站转向邮寄投票。这些选票可能需要更长的时间来计票，增加了一段时期内获胜者不明的可能性。即使结果出来了，随之而来的也可能是一系列的诉讼。唐纳德·特朗普总统暗示邮寄选票可能是伪造的，而且表明自己将不接受选举结果，使得不确定性加剧。

The nearest guide to market reaction in such a situation would be to look at the contest between Al Gore and George Bush in 2000, which was too close to call on election day and involved recounts and lawsuits. Markets dropped by 1.6% the day after the election as it became clear there was no decisive winner. The S&P 500 sank by more than 8% by the end of the year—though at least some of that probably re-flects the beginnings of the dotcom bust. 

要了解市场在这种情况下的反应，最直接的方法就是看看2000年阿尔·戈尔和乔治·布什之间的竞争。当时在选举日，双方势利难分，还涉及重新计票和诉讼。大选后的第二天，由于尚未确定获胜者，市场下跌了1.6%。到今年年底，S&P 500下跌了超过8%——尽管其中至少有一部分可能再现了互联网泡沫破裂之初的情形。

A happier scenario for investors—and citizens more broadly—would see a clear victor emerging on election day. And it may be that investors have begun to think this has become more likely than they did mere days ago. Though the news that Mr Trump had been diagnosed with covid-19 sent VIX futures higher on October 2nd, by the 7th futures maturing in November, December and January had dropped below the level they had reached after the first presidential debate on September 29th. That might be thanks to a flurry of polls putting Joe Biden, Mr Trump's Democratic challenger, even further ahead. As the campaign moves into the home straight, investors are betting on less, rather than more, chaos. 

更能让投资者和广大公民感到欣慰的结果是，获胜者在选举日当天就被选出。或许投资者们已经感觉到了较之前几天这种可能性的加大。虽然特朗普被诊断为新冠的消息在10月2日推高了VIX期货，但到11月、12月和1月到期的7个期货价格已经低于9月29日第一次总统辩论之后的水平，这大概得益于一项结果为“特朗普的民主党竞争者乔·拜登领先”的民调。随着大选接近尾声，投资者的押注混乱并没有愈演愈烈，相反在逐渐平息。