在艰难时期管理美国企业（上）

Business

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Managing American business in hard times: No margin for error

在艰难时期管理美国企业：容不得犯错

A guide to running a company in a period of stagflation.

在滞胀时期经营公司的指南。

For the leaders of American Inc, high inflation is unwelcome.

美国公司的领导人不欢迎高通胀。

It is also unfamiliar.

对其也不熟悉。

Warren Buffett, 91, the oldest boss in the S&P 500 index of big firms, most recently warned about the dangers of rising prices in his annual shareholder letter for 2011.

91岁的沃伦·巴菲特是标准普尔500指数的大企业中年龄最大的老板，最近的一次，他早在2011年致股东的信中就股价上涨的危险发出了警告。

The average chief executive of a company in the index, aged a stripling 58, had not started university in 1979 when Paul Volcker, inflation’s enemy-in-chief, became chairman of the Federal Reserve.

该指数成分股公司的首席执行官平均年龄为58岁，还很年轻，按照这个年纪来算，在1979年，通货膨胀的头号敌人保罗·沃尔克成为美联储主席时，他们都还没有上大学。

By the time the average boss began working the rise of globalised capitalism was ushering in an era of low inflation and high profits.

在这个岁数的老板刚刚开始工作时，全球化资本主义的崛起正迎来一个低通胀、高利润的时代。

Their firms’ share prices rose between the global financial crisis of 2007-09 and the covid-19 pandemic, a decade of rock-bottom inflation.

在2007-2009年的世界金融危机到2019年暴发新冠疫情的这十年间，通货膨胀触底，他们公司的股价都有所上涨。

Inflation will stay high for some time yet.

通货膨胀率仍将在一段时间内居高不下。

On June 7th the World Bank warned that “several years of above-average inflation and below-average growth now seem likely.”

6月7日，世界银行警告称，“未来数年，通货膨胀率高于平均水平，而经济增长低于平均水平的局面，在目前看来是有可能的。”

A new study by Marijn Bolhuis, Judd Cramer and Lawrence Summers finds that if you measure inflation consistently, today’s rate is not that far off the peak in 1980.

马尔金·博尔赫斯、贾德·克雷默和劳伦斯·萨默斯的一项新研究发现，如果你一直衡量通胀率，就会发现今天的通胀率与1980年的峰值相差不远。

As the past creeps up on the future, “stagflation” is preoccupying the denizens of corner offices.

随着过去逐渐逼近未来，“滞胀”正困扰着高级办公室里的人。

Today’s executives may think of themselves as battle-hardened—they have experienced a financial crisis and a pandemic.

今天的高管可能认为自己身经百战--他们经历了一场金融危机和一场疫情。

However, the stagflationary challenge requires a different toolkit that borrows from the past and also involves new tricks.

然而，应对滞胀挑战需要一套不同的工具，一套既借鉴过去，也包含新技巧的工具。

The primary task for any management team is to defend margins and cashflow, which investors favour over revenue growth when things get dicey.

任何管理团队的首要任务都是保护利润和现金流，当形势变得不明朗时，投资者更喜欢利润和现金流，而不是收入增长。

That will require fighting harder down in the trenches of the income statement.

这将需要在损益表的战壕中更加努力地战斗。

Although a rise in margins as inflation first picked up last year led politicians to denounce corporate “greedflation”, after-tax profits in fact tend to come down as a share of GDP when price rises persist, based on the experience of all American firms since 1950.

尽管在去年通胀首次抬头时，利润率因此上升，引发政界人士谴责企业“贪婪膨胀”，但实际上，根据1950年以来所有美国公司的经验，当价格持续上涨时，税后利润占国内生产总值的比例往往会下降。

To create shareholder value in this environment companies must increase their cashflows in real terms.

为了在这种环境下创造股东价值，企业必须增加实际现金流。

That means a combination of cutting expenses and passing cost inflation on to customers without dampening sales volumes.

这意味着在不影响销量的情况下，既要削减开支，又要将成本膨胀转嫁给客户。

Cost-cutting will not be easy.

削减成本并非易事。

The prices of commodities, transport and labour remain elevated and most companies are price-takers in those markets.

大宗商品、运输和劳动力的价格仍然居高不下，大多数公司又都是这些市场的价格接受者。

Supply-chain constraints have begun to ease a bit and may keep easing in the coming months.

供应链的限制已经开始有所缓解，并可能在未来几个月继续放松。

But disruptions will almost certainly continue.

但几乎可以肯定的是，妨碍将继续存在。

In April Apple lamented that the industry-wide computer-chip shortage is expected to create a $4bn-8bn “constraint” for the iPhone-maker in the current quarter.

今年4月，苹果曾哀叹，整个行业的电脑芯片短缺预计将在本季度给他们这家iPhone制造商带来40亿至80亿美元的“限制”。

The input bosses can control most easily is labour.

老板们最容易控制的投入是劳动力。

After months of frenzied hiring, companies are looking to protect margins by getting more from their workers—or getting the same amount from fewer of them.

在疯狂招聘了数月后，企业正指望通过从员工那里获得更多利润--或者从更少的员工那里获得相同利润的方式，来保护利润。

The labour market remains drum-tight: in America wages are up by more than 5% year on year and in April lay-offs hit a record low.

劳动力市场仍然紧张：在美国，工资同比增长了5%以上，4月份的裁员人数创历史新低。

But, in some corners, the pandemic hiring binge to meet pent-up demand is being unwound.

但是，在一些角落，为满足人们被压抑的需求而掀起的疫情招聘狂潮正在消退。