油价还有望降下来吗？(下)

In Argentina an agreement with the imf that involves cutting energy subsidies cost Martín Guzman his job as economy minister on July 2nd.

7月2日，阿根廷与国际货币基金组织达成的一项涉及削减能源补贴的协议使马丁·古兹曼在失去了经济部长的职位。

It is not hard to see why governments are so sensitive to the price of fuel.

不难看出为什么各国政府对燃料价格如此敏感。

Latin America is a region of long distances in which roads are paramount in the movement of both goods and people.

拉丁美洲是一个距离遥远的地区，在该地区，道路在货物和人员流动中都起着至关重要的作用。

In Venezuela in 1989 an abrupt decision by Carlos Andres Perez, shortly after his lavish inauguration as president, to double the petrol price triggered days of rioting that cost some 400 lives.

1989年，在委内瑞拉，卡洛斯·安德烈斯·佩雷斯在奢华的总统就职典礼后不久突然决定将汽油价格提高一倍，引发了数日的骚乱，导致约400人丧生。

These events discredited Venezuelan democracy and paved the way for Hugo Chávez, a populist strongman elected a decade later.

这些事件破坏了委内瑞拉民主的声誉，并为十年后当选的民粹主义强人乌戈·查韦斯铺平了道路。

When Brazil began to phase out fuel subsidies, a truckers’ strike lasting a fortnight in 2018 brought the country to a halt and helped Mr Bolsonaro, who supported it, win that year’s election.

2018年，当巴西开始逐步取消燃料补贴时，持续了两周的卡车司机罢工使该国陷入停顿，并帮助支持该计划的博尔索纳罗赢得了当年的选举。

In Ecuador Mr Lasso’s predecessor, Lenín Moreno, was almost toppled by an insurrection by indigenous groups and leftists against a cut in fuel subsidies in 2019.

在厄瓜多尔，拉索的前任莱宁·莫雷诺在2019年几乎被土著团体和左翼分子反对削减燃料补贴的起义推翻。

While across-the-board fuel subsidies may be good politics, they are bad policy.

尽管全面的燃料补贴可能是好的政治手段，但却是糟糕的政策。

Since the better-off consume more petrol than the poor, they do nothing to reduce inequality.

由于较富裕的人比穷人消耗更多的汽油，他们对减少不平等毫无作用。

And they run counter to the region’s commitments to reduce fossil-fuel use to combat climate change.

它们与该地区减少化石燃料使用以应对气候变化的承诺背道而驰。

It would be better to blunt the impact of inflation through targeted handouts to poorer citizens, but these lack the political impact of price caps.

更好的办法是通过有针对性地向贫困公民发放救济品来削弱通胀的影响，但这些措施缺乏价格上限的政治影响。

Many governments will find it hard to afford higher fuel subsidies for long.

许多政府将发现很难长期承受更高的燃料补贴。

While they may help with inflation, they add to deficits.

尽管它们可能有助于缓解通胀，但增加了赤字。

Latin America’s recovery from the pandemic slump was stronger than many expected, partly because of higher prices for its exports of oil, metals and foodstuffs.

拉丁美洲从疫情低迷中复苏的势头比许多人预期的要强劲，部分原因是其石油、金属和食品出口价格上涨。

The imf this week raised its forecast for growth in the region this year to 3%, from 2.5%.

国际货币基金组织本周将该地区今年的增长预期从2.5%上调至3%。

But the going is getting rougher: the fund cut its projection for next year by a similar amount, to 2%.

但情况变得更加艰难：国际货币基金组织将明年的预测下调了类似的幅度，至2%。

Inflation took off in the region last year, prompting central banks to raise interest rates.

去年，该地区的通货膨胀开始加剧，促使各国央行提高利率。

As governments offered help during the pandemic, public debt rose from an average of 58% of gdp in 2019 to 72% last year, according to the Inter-American Development Bank.

根据美洲开发银行的数据，由于各国政府在疫情期间提供帮助，公共债务占GDP的比例从2019年的平均58%上升到去年的72%。

Higher interest rates mean that debt is more expensive to service.

更高的利率意味着偿还债务的成本更高。

Fiscal worries are “surfacing again and will become uglier in the second half of this year”, says William Jackson of Capital Economics, a consultancy.

英国顶级经济咨询机构凯投宏观的威廉·杰克逊表示，财政方面的担忧“再次浮出水面，并将在今年下半年变得更加严重”。

Apart from those in Argentina and perhaps Ecuador, governments do not face immediate financing problems, he says.

他表示，除了阿根廷，或许还有厄瓜多尔，政府都不会面临迫在眉睫的融资问题。

“But at some point the region will have to carry out a fiscal adjustment.”

“但在某个时候，该地区将不得不进行财政调整。”

The political leaders will hope that by then oil prices are falling again.

政治领导人会希望到那时油价会再次下跌。