油价还有望降下来吗？(上)

The Americas

美洲版块

Bello

贝约

The fuel and the fire

燃油和火

Latin America’s energy subsidies are good politics but bad policy

拉丁美洲的能源补贴政策在政治上是好的，但在政策上却是坏的

For a month now protesters in Panama have blocked highways, prompting shortages of food and medicine in a country that for the past three decades has enjoyed social and political stability and steady economic growth.

一个月来，巴拿马的抗议者封锁了高速公路，在这个过去30年来一直享有社会和政治稳定、经济稳步增长的国家，引发了食品和药品短缺。

Their target is the price of fuel, which rose by almost half in the first six months of this year.

他们的目标是燃油价格，今年上半年燃油价格上涨了近一半。

The shaken government of President Laurentino Cortizo buckled, agreeing to cut the price of petrol to 3.25 dollars a gallon from 5.20 dollars.

摇摇欲坠的总统洛伦蒂诺·科蒂佐领导的政府屈服了，同意将汽油价格从每加仑5.20美元降至3.25美元。

But the protests continued, with unions demanding other price controls to ease living costs.

但抗议活动仍在继续，工会要求采取其他价格控制措施，以降低生活成本。

Panama is far from alone.

不只是巴拿马有这种情况。

With the cost of oil soaring since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, and with prices rising more generally, a string of governments across Latin America have introduced or increased subsidies on fuel to assuage protesters, or pre-empt them.

自今年2月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，油价飙升，而且油价普遍上涨，拉美各国政府纷纷出台或增加燃料补贴，以安抚抗议者，或先发制人。

To end almost three weeks of disorder, in which seven people died last month, Ecuador’s pro-market president, Guillermo Lasso, granted subsidies on fuel and fertilisers.

为了结束上个月7人死亡导致的近三周的混乱局面，厄瓜多尔支持市场的总统吉列尔莫·拉索批准了燃油和化肥补贴。

These subsidies are worth around 0.8% of gdp, according to calculations by J.P.Morgan, a bank.

根据摩根大通银行的计算，这些补贴约占gdp的0.8%。

Brazil’s right-wing president, Jair Bolsonaro, who is seeking a second term at an election in October, has been pressing Petrobras, the state-controlled oil giant, to cut prices.

巴西右翼总统贾尔·博尔索纳罗正寻求在10月份的选举中连任，他一直在向国有石油巨头巴西国家石油公司施压，要求其降价。

On July 27th the company said it would review its pricing policy.

7月27日，该公司表示将审查其定价政策。

In Mexico petrol prices are 35% lower than they would otherwise be, as the government of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has spent higher oil revenues on a subsidy equal to 1% of gdp.

由于安德烈斯·曼努埃尔·洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔政府将GDP的1%的石油收入用于补贴，墨西哥的汽油价格比原来低了35%。

When protests broke out in Peru in April the government scrapped a fuel tax and announced other tax cuts, totalling perhaps 0.9% of gdp.

当4月份秘鲁爆发抗议活动时，政府取消了一项燃油税，并宣布了其他减税措施，总额可能相当于GDP的0.9%。

In the Dominican Republic this month the government suspended a plan to wind down electricity subsidies.

在多米尼加共和国，政府本月暂停了一项逐步减少电力补贴的计划。

Both Chile and Colombia have augmented stabilisation funds which smooth the rise in fuel prices.

智利和哥伦比亚都增加了稳定基金，以平息燃料价格的上涨。