人人都想买卖国债（上）

Finance & economics

财经板块

Buttonwood: Let them trade bonds

梧桐树：让他们交易债券

The world’s most important financial market is not fit for purpose

世界上最重要的金融市场已经不适合搞金融了

Everyone wants to trade Treasuries.

人人都想买卖国债。

Big banks hold them for liquidity management, pension funds own them for long-term yields, hedge funds use them to bet on the economy, individuals’ savings are stored in them and central banks use them to manage foreign-exchange reserves.

大银行持有国债是为了流动性管理，养老基金是为了获得长期收益，对冲基金是为了押注经济，个人是为了把钱存进去，央行是为了管理外汇储备。

The market for Treasuries, most of the time, is deep and liquid.

在大多数情况下，国债市场都很活跃，且具有流动性。

Some $640bn of government bonds change hands each day, at prices that become the benchmark risk-free rate by which all financial instruments are valued and lending rates set.

每天约有6400亿美元的政府债券易手，其价格成为所有金融工具估值和贷款利率设定的基准无风险利率。

So why do they sometimes not change hands?

那么，为什么它们有时不易手呢？

Several times in the recent past the market has broken down.

在最近一段时间，该市场曾数次出现崩盘。

In 2014 a “flash rally” led to wild swings in prices, for no clear reason.

2014年，一场“闪电拉升”导致价格剧烈波动，原因不明。

In 2019 rates spiked in the “repo” market, in which Treasuries can be swapped for cash overnight.

2019年，“回购”市场利率飙升，在这个市场上，美国国债可以在一夜之间兑换成现金。

In March 2020 extreme illiquidity led yields to spike, even though in times of panic they usually fall as investors rush to safe assets.

2020年3月，极度缺乏流动性导致收益率飙升，尽管在恐慌时期，随着投资者争相购买安全资产，收益率通常会下跌。

Now issues are cropping up again: measures of volatility have jumped to levels last seen in 2020 and bid-ask spreads are widening.

现在，问题又出现了：波动性指标已跃升至2020年的水平，买卖价差正在扩大。

The problem stems from the fact that the Treasury market has doubled in size over the past decade, even as its infrastructure has shrunk.

问题的源头在于，即使美国国债市场的基础设施有所减少，其规模还是在过去10年间扩大了一倍。

Trading is carried out by primary dealers, designated institutions which are mostly big banks—and regulatory requirements now constrain them.

交易是由一级交易商进行的，这些指定机构大多是大型银行--监管要求现在对它们进行了限制。

The leverage ratio, which limits the value of assets banks can hold relative to their capital, does not care whether the asset is super-safe Treasuries or subprime mortgage debt.

银行相对于其资本可以持有的资产价值受杠杆率限制，而它并不关心资产是超级安全的国债还是次级抵押贷款债务。

Thus when a client calls asking to sell a bond, banks must find a client who wants to buy it, rather than holding it as inventory for when another client calls.

因此，当客户打电话要求出售债券时，银行必须找到想要购买债券的客户，而不是将其作为库存，以备另一客户来电时使用。

In times of stress, this system gets overwhelmed.

在紧张时期，这个系统会不堪重负。