经济学人下载:中国债券市场定价风险(上)

Finance and economics: China's bond market Pricing risk
财经：中国债券市场定价风险

Debt issuance booms despite a wave of defaults.
尽管债务违约浪潮汹涌，发债量仍旧激增。

China's domestic bond market has never been riskier.
中国国内债券市场的风险从未像现在这样如此之高。

It was only last year that it suffered its first default.
就在去年，中国国内债市出现首例违约事件。

This year at least six companies have defaulted.
今年则至少有六家企业还不起债。

The miscreants are a diverse lot, including a beverage bottler, a solar-panel maker and a cement company.
债务违约企业跨各行各业，其中包括饮料装瓶商、太阳能电池板制造商和水泥公司。

As economic growth grinds lower, defaults will inevitably rise.
随着经济增长逐步放缓，违约增加的情况在所难免。

A gloomy outlook of this kind would normally lead investors to demand a premium before buying bonds.
一般而言，如此惨淡前景将促使投资者在购买债券之前要求获得风险溢价。

Instead, they have lapped them up, making it cheaper for China's companies to borrow.
然而，现实正好与之相反。他们欣然接受了债市现状，这使得中国企业的融资贷款成本相对降低。

Bond issuance has boomed this year, reaching almost 12 trillion yuan ($1.9 trillion) so far, up from the record 7.7 trillion sold in all of 2014, according to Wind Information, a data provider.
根据数据咨询企业Wind资讯，今年的债券发行量大幅度增长：2014年全年债券售额已创纪录达7.7万亿元，而目前规模已高达12万亿元(1.9万亿美元)。

This has prompted warnings that, much like the stock market earlier this year, China's bond market is swelling into a bubble.
这一现象不禁令人回想起“前车之鉴”：与今年早期的股市一样，中国债券市场正逐渐膨胀成一团巨大泡沫。

Banks accounted for almost all lending in China until a decade ago.
直至十年前，中国国内所有贷款几乎都由银行一家独揽发放。

Today, for every five yuan of loans companies take out, they also finance themselves with one yuan of bonds.
如今，在企业所融资取得的贷款中，每五元就有一元被企业用于发放债券。

That has made China the world's third-biggest bond market, behind America and Japan—a development that should help shield the economy from the expensive busts to which banks are prone.
这使得中国跻身为全球第三大债券市场，仅次于美国和日本。同时，债券市场的发展亦发挥着积极作用——保护中国经济免于遭受银行破产的高昂代价。

At the moment, though, the bond market seems to be stoking risk.
尽管如此，目前债券市场的入市风险似乎正逐步攀升。

For most of the past five years, yields on highly rated corporate bonds were two or three percentage points higher than on government bonds of the same maturity.
五年来，评级较高的公司债券收益与政府债券同期相比，前者在大部分时间里高出后者两到三个百分点。

This year the spread has narrowed, hitting a low in early November of just 1.3 percentage points.
今年这一收益差幅逐步缩小，11月初时降至新低，仅为1.3%。

This implies that investors think corporate bonds have become less risky, despite the proliferation of defaults.
这表明尽管债务违约的现象愈发盛行，投资者认为企业债券的风险相对有所降低。

Look at individual bonds, and signs of excess are even more obvious.
将目光转向公司债券，我们会发现过度“购债”的现象甚是明显。

Vanke is China's biggest listed property developer and, by most accounts, a well-managed company.
万科系中国最大的房地产开发商，同时亦被盛誉为管理完善的上市企业。