经济学人下载:中国债券市场定价风险(下)

But the Chinese property business is going through a painful retrenchment after years of overbuilding, which suggests Vanke's bonds are not without their risks.
然而，中国房地产行业在历经多年的过热发展后，正艰难度过寒冬期。从这一点能够看出，万科发行的债券也并非毫无风险。

Yet in late September they were treated as just as safe as official issuers.
可就在9月末，业界认为万科企业债券的风险简直可与政府的相比肩。

Vanke sold five-year bonds at a yield of 3.5%, the same as the bonds of some provincial governments at the time.
与同期省政府债券的收益率相同，万科以收益率为3.5%的五年期债券发售市场。

Despite these ominous portents, many Chinese bond analysts take a sanguine view.
尽管存在这些不祥之兆，中国国内许多债券分析师对此持乐观态度。

The increase in issuance has been exaggerated by a debt swap: local governments are on track this year to replace about 3 trillion yuan of expensive loans with cheaper bonds.
某种程度上，债务互换夸大了债券发行的增量：今年，地方政府正用3万亿元的高额贷款来换取更为廉价的债券。

The average interest rate paid on outstanding debt in China has fallen from nearly 7% last year to just over 6% this year, according to Hua Chuang Securities, making it easier for borrowers to keep up with payments.
据华创证券统计显示，中国未偿债务的平均支付利率已从去年近7%跌至为今年6%，这使得借款人还债的负担更为轻松。

Besides, with growth sluggish, the central bank will probably keep interest rates low.
除此之外，随着经济增长放缓，中国人民银行可能会维持低利率政策不变。

Shi Lei, head of fixed-income research at Ping An Securities, expects yields to come down by as much as half a percentage point over the next year.
石磊是平安证券固定收益调研部的负责人。他预计明年的收益将会下降0.5%。

Spreads between interest rates on corporate bonds and government ones are also starting to widen again.
同时，公司债券和政府债券两者利率的差幅也将再次扩大。

Their compression had been spurred by the stock market crash in July, when much of the money that fled stocks ended up in bonds of all ratings.
两者的利率差在此前6月份股市崩盘中逐步缩小——当时（投资者）将资金抽离股市，再度投放于各级债券市场。

Chen Kang of SWS Research believes that now the stock market has rebounded, investors are starting to differentiate again between private and government-backed issuers.
陈康系上海申银万国证券研究所的一名分析师，他认为如今股市已经回升，投资者也开始再次区分私人和政府担保的债券发行方。

Whether those government-backed issuers deserve their low yields is another question.
有政府作担保的债券发行人是否就应获得低收益则是另一问题。

The handful of defaults to date shows that China is willing to let some companies fail, but so far no big firms in which the central government retains a sizeable shareholding have met that fate.
目前为止，中国国内仅发生了几件债务违约事件，这表明中国当局愿意牺牲掉一些企业的利益。至于那些中央政府持有相当股份的大企业，迄今未有一家遭遇关门闭业的命运。

Instead, those that have got into trouble have been rescued, leading investors to treat their bonds as virtually risk-free.
反而，这些陷入困境的大企业还得到救助，这使得投资者认为其债券是完全“零风险”。

SinoSteel, a struggling miner and steel trader, is the latest test of this implicit guarantee.
苦苦挣扎的中钢集团是一家采矿和钢铁交易公司，是对隐性担保的最新测试。

It had been due to repay bondholders some 2 billion yuan in October, but pushed the date back to December 16th.
该企业本应于10月份以20亿元还清债券债务，但债务清偿届满期却被推迟到12月16日。

A default would shake investors' faith in government-backed bonds—bringing some sobriety to a market that sorely needs it.
债务违约将会动摇投资者对政府担保债券的投资信心——不过这也给市场带来了亟需且非常必要的冷静。