滞后带来的拖累（上）

Finance & economics

财经板块

Inflation: The drag from lags

通货膨胀：滞后带来的拖累

Rates are rising at uNPRecedented speed.

利率正以前所未有的速度上升。

How long until they bite?

在它们产生严重影响之前，还有多长时间？

If you want to impress central bankers, inject “long and variable lags” into a conversation and heave a heavy sigh.

如果你想给央行官员留下深刻印象，那就在对话中提到“漫长而多变的滞后”，然后沉重地叹一口气。

The phrase, coined by Milton Friedman, a Nobel-prizewinning economist, is sophisticated shorthand for the delayed and uncertain effects of monetary policy.

这个词由诺贝尔奖得主、经济学家米尔顿·弗里德曼首创，是对货币政策的延迟和不确定效应的复杂缩写。

Raising rates, as most central banks are now doing, should lead to slower growth and lower inflation.

大多数央行现在正在实施的加息，应该会导致经济增长放缓和通胀降低。

But it can take time for the full impact to be felt.

但要感受到加息的全面影响还需要时间。

Hence Friedman’s idea of a long lag.

因此，弗里德曼提出了长期滞后的观点。

The variability, meanwhile, refers to the lack of a predictable interval between raise and result.

同时，可变性指的是无法预测加息和结果之间的差距。

Lags present an acute challenge at the moment.

目前，滞后是一个严峻的挑战。

Tightening in the past few decades has been gradual, helping to mitigate uncertainty.

过去几十年的紧缩措施一直是渐进的，有助于降低不确定性。

This time central banks are furiously ratcheting up rates.

但这一次，各国央行都在疯狂地加息。

The Federal Reserve is on course to raise them from a floor of 0% to 4% by the end of this year, its steepest tightening in four decades.

美联储正按计划在今年年底前将利率从0%提高到4%，这是40年来最大幅度的紧缩。

Economists including Ben Bernanke, a former chairman of the Fed and a new Nobel laureate, estimate lags between monetary policy and inflation can last as long as two years.

美联储前主席、新任诺贝尔奖得主本·伯南克等经济学家估计，货币政策与通胀之间的滞后可能长达两年之久。

The result is that America may be digesting the jumbo rate rises of the past few months well into 2024, by which time the economic picture will look different.

其结果是，美国过去几个月大幅加息的影响可能会持续到2024年，到那时，经济形势将会发生变化。

This is one reason why some economists are calling for central banks to switch to smaller rate rises, if any.

这就是一些经济学家呼吁各国央行如果要加息，就采取小幅加息的原因之一。

They want policymakers to survey the impact thus far in order to avoid needlessly adding to future pain.

他们希望政策制定者调查迄今为止加息的影响，以避免徒增未来的痛苦。

Yet the mere existence of lags cannot be an argument for inaction.

然而，存在滞后这一点不能成为不作为的理由。

They are a known unknown.

滞后是我们已知会出现的未知数。

Their precise duration may be uncertain but the fact that there will be a delay is well understood.

滞后持续的确切时间可能不确定，但滞后一定会出现这一点是众所周知的。

Any decent model contains assumptions about this.

任何像样的经济模型都会预设滞后。

Fed officials expect to shift from raising to cutting rates in 2024 and 2025.

美联储官员预计将在2024年和2025年从加息转向降息。

But they also expect inflation to continue to recede in both those years—an indication of how lags are baked into their forecasts.

但他们也预计通胀将在这两年继续降低--这表明他们的预测是考虑到了滞后的。