欧洲为什么害怕量化紧缩？（上）

Finance & economics

财经板块

European finance: Frightening tightening

欧洲金融：可怕的紧缩

Europe’s central bankers are nervous about unwinding quantitative easing.

欧洲央行行长们对退出量化宽松感到紧张。

Central banks are finally getting into the swing of quantitative tightening (QT).

各国央行终于开始实施量化紧缩政策(QT)。

The Bank of Canada has shed a fifth of its balance-sheet this year.

加拿大银行今年已经削减了五分之一的资产负债表。

The Bank of England held its first gilt auction on November 1st.

英国央行在11月1日举行了首次国债出售操作。

The Federal Reserve’s balance-sheet shrank by $85bn in October, twice the size of the reduction three months earlier.

美联储的资产负债表在10月份缩水了850亿美元，是3个月前缩减规模的两倍。

But in Europe, where officials have flirted with QT for months, the European Central Bank (ECB) is yet to let go of a single bond.

但在欧洲，官员们几个月来一直在“玩弄”QT，而欧洲央行(ECB)一只债券都还未放开。

The continent’s central bankers have sent mixed messages about when QT will arrive.

关于QT将于何时到来，欧洲大陆的央行官员发出了含混不清的信息。

In September Christine Lagarde, the ECB’s president, said details would be provided after the bank finished raising interest rates.

今年9月，欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德表示，具体细节将在欧洲央行完成加息后公布。

At a meeting on October 27th the ECB promised to lay out “key principles” in December.

在10月27日的一次会议上，欧洲央行承诺将在12月制定出相关的“关键原则”。

Five days later, Joachim Nagel of the Bundesbank said that Germany expected QT in early 2023.

五天后，德国央行的约阿希姆·纳格尔表示，德国预计将在2023年初启动QT。

Pablo Hernando de Cos of Spain’s central bank sharply retorted that a longer wait was required.

西班牙中央银行的巴勃罗·埃尔南德斯·德·科斯尖锐地反驳称，目前还需再等一段时间。

QT is a nerve-racking experience for all central bankers.

QT对所有央行官员来说都很伤脑筋。

When buying bonds during quantitative easing (QE), policymakers were unsure about the impact of their growing balance-sheets.

在量化宽松(QE)期间购买债券时，政策制定者并不确定他们不断增长的资产负债表会产生什么影响。

In reverse, the uncertainty is greater, particularly given the fragility of financial markets and the global economy.

反过来，不确定性就更大了，特别是考虑到全球经济和金融市场的脆弱性。

Experiments with QT have gone wrong in the past, as in 2019 when the Fed roiled the Treasury market.

QT的实验过去也出过问题，比如2019年，美联储就搅乱了美国国债市场。

And QT is particularly difficult for the ECB.

而QT对欧洲央行来说尤其困难。

Most central banks have bought just one government debt.

大多数央行只购买了一笔政府债券。

The ECB has 19 bond markets to worry about.

欧洲央行目前有19个债市需要担心。

One effect of QE is that it reduces the spread between the low borrowing costs of Germany and those of indebted economies like Italy.

QE的一个效果是，它缩小了德国与意大利等负债累累经济体在低借贷成本方面的差距。

When inflation was low the ECB could pass this off as a side-effect of its stimulus.

当通胀处于低位时，欧洲央行可以将此作为其刺激计划的副作用而不予理会。

Now it is raising rates it must find other arguments in favour of containing spreads.

而现在它正在加息，它就必须找到其他支持控制差距的理由。