2023可能和2022差不多糟（上）

Finance & economics

财经板块

Buttonwood: Once more with feeling

梧桐树：再一次，带着感情

Investors had an awful time in 2022; this year may be almost as bad

2022年，投资者度过了一段糟糕的时光；今年可能也差不多

After a nightmarish 2022, shell-shocked investors have losses to recoup and plenty to ponder.

在经历了噩梦般的2022年之后，胆战心惊的投资者有很多损失需要弥补，也有很多事情需要思考。

There are asset-class allocations to be made, industries to favour or shun and every economic variable under the sun to forecast.

需要进行资产类别配置，需要看好或避开一些行业，还需要预测每一个经济变量。

Professional money managers have the extra headache of working out how to stop nervous clients racing for the exits.

此外，专业基金经理还需解决一个令人头疼的问题，那就是如何阻止紧张的客户争相退出。

But one question dominates the rest, and it is the impossible one that looms over every crash.

但有一个问题是重中之重，这个不可能的问题笼罩着每一次崩盘。

Is the worst over?

最糟糕的时期已经过去了吗？

Economically, there is a clear answer: this year will be grim.

从经济上讲，答案很明确：今年将是严峻的一年。

Kristalina Georgieva, head of the IMF, warned on January 1st that a third of the global economy is likely to fall into recession in 2023.

国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃1月1日警告称，2023年全球三分之一的经济体可能会陷入衰退。

Downturns have probably already begun in the euro zone and Britain.

欧元区和英国的经济衰退可能已经开始了。

In a recent poll of economists carried out by the University of Chicago and the Financial Times, 85% thought America would follow before the year is out.

在芝加哥大学和《金融时报》最近对经济学家进行的一项调查中，85%的人认为美国经济会在今年年底前开始衰退。

This does not guarantee another bloodbath—it could even mean the opposite.

这并不意味着一定会发生又一场大屠杀--甚至可能正相反。

In theory, markets are forward-looking, and fears of recession stalked the world for much of 2022.

从理论上讲，市场是具有前瞻性的，2022年的大部分时间里，对衰退的担忧一直困扰着世界各国。

Such a widely held consensus should be baked into today’s prices, meaning even a marginally better outlook would buoy prices.

如此广泛的共识应该反映在今天的价格中，意思是说即使前景只是略微好转也会提振价格。

Indeed, analysts at JPMorgan Asset Management use the strength of agreement that there will be a recession to argue that stock prices will in fact end 2023 higher than they started.

事实上，摩根大通资产管理公司的分析师利用认为经济将出现衰退的这一共识，辩称2023年底的股价实际上将高于开始时的水平。

They are not alone in their optimism.

并非只有他们持乐观态度。

Goldman Sachs’s researchers think share prices will fall in the near term, but recover by the end of the year.

高盛的研究人员认为，近期股价将会下跌，但到今年年底就会回升。

Deutsche Bank’s bullish lot reckon the S&P 500 index of large American firms will end the year 17% higher than it now stands.

德意志银行的看涨人士认为，到今年年底，美国大型企业的标准普尔500指数将比现在高出17%。

If this year offers a repeat of 2022, with heavy losses for both stocks and bonds, it will be an unusual one.

如果今年重蹈2022年的覆辙，股票和债券都遭受重创，那今年将会是不寻常的一年。

Stock prices mostly go up.

股票价格大多会上涨。

They rarely decline two years in a row.

股价很少会连续两年下降。

The S&P 500 last did so two decades ago during the bursting of the dotcom bubble.

标准普尔500指数上一次这样下降，还是在20年前互联网泡沫破裂的时候。

Last year’s bond rout was on account of the Federal Reserve raising rates at its fastest pace since the 1980s, which is unlikely to be repeated.

去年债券暴跌是因为美联储以上世纪80年代以来最快的速度加息，而这种情况不太可能重演。

Even so, there are reasons to believe more pain lies ahead.

但即便如此，我们仍有理由相信未来还会有更多令人痛苦的问题。

The first is that shares, relative to their underlying earnings, remain expensive by historical standards.

第一个问题就是，以历史标准衡量，股票相对于其基本收益而言仍然很贵。

Despite last year’s plunge, the price-to-earnings ratio for “growth” stocks, those of companies promising big future profits, has fallen back only to where it was in 2019.

尽管去年股价暴跌，但“成长型”股票的市盈率，即那些未来有望获得巨大利润的公司的股票市盈率，也不过是回落到了2019年的水平。

This was its highest since the global financial crisis of 2007-09, a level which was reached after a decade-long bull market.

这是2007年至2009年全球金融危机以来的最高水平，是在长达10年的牛市之后达到的水平。

True, “value” stocks, those with a low price compared with the firm’s book assets, look more attractive.

诚然，与公司账面资产相比价格较低的“价值型”股票看起来更具吸引力。

But as recession sets in, both types are vulnerable to earnings downgrades that are, for the most part, yet to materialise.

但随着衰退的到来，这两类股票都很容易受到盈利下调的影响，而这些下调大多还没有发生。