美国的通货膨胀热可能最终会消退（上）

Finance & economics

财经板块

The US economy: Fed rest

美国经济：美联储休息

America’s inflation fever may be breaking at last

美国的通货膨胀热可能最终会消退

“We will stay the course until the job is done,” said Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve’s chairman, on December 14th, shortly after the central bank’s latest interest-rate rise.

12月14日，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在美联储最近一次加息后不久表示：“我们将坚持到底，直到任务完成。”

As a statement of intent, his words were both straightforward and utterly sensible.

作为一份意向声明，他的话既直截了当，又十分合理。

But what it means for the job to be done is becoming a matter of controversy.

但这对要完成的任务意味着什么，正成为一个有争议的问题。

Inflation remains uncomfortably high.

通货膨胀率仍然高得令人不安。

Meanwhile, the aggressive monetary tightening of the past year is only now filtering through to the economy, complicating assessments of whether the Fed has in fact done enough to rein in prices.

与此同时，过去一年大刀阔斧的货币紧缩直到现在才开始渗透到经济中，这导致针对美联储是否真的采取了足够的措施控制物价的评估变得复杂。

Promisingly, after a difficult two years, inflation does appear to be easing its grip on the American economy.

令人振奋的是，在经历了艰难的两年后，通胀对美国经济的影响似乎正在减弱。

Overall prices increased by a mere 0.1% month-on-month in November, according to data published on December 13th, making for that rarest of recent occurrences: a downside surprise.

12月13日公布的数据显示，11月份总体价格环比仅上涨了0.1%，这是近期最罕见的情况：令人惊讶的下降。

Most encouraging was a breakdown showing that core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, had decelerated for a second consecutive month.

最令人鼓舞的是，一份细目数据显示，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心通胀率已连续第二个月减速。

Investors and analysts, scarred by America’s relentless run of inflation, have learned to restrain their hopes after a single month of rosy data.

投资者和分析师在美国持续的通货膨胀中伤痕累累，在一个月的乐观数据公布后，他们已经学会了抑制自己的希望。

Year-on-year rates of inflation remain elevated at 7.1% for headline inflation.

同比通胀率仍保持在7.1%的高位。

But the disinflation in November follows a similarly cheerful batch of data for October.

但在11月份出现通货紧缩之前，10月份的一批数据也同样令人欢欣鼓舞。

Optimism is on the rise, albeit still mostly of the cautious rather than the unbridled kind.

越来越多人开始持有乐观态度，尽管大多数人的乐观仍然很谨慎，而不是肆无忌惮。

Since mid-October the S&P 500 index of leading American firms has recovered some of the ground it lost earlier this year.

10月中旬以来，美国主要公司的标准普尔500指数已经收复了今年早些时候的部分失地。

Concerns are shifting to the prospect of weaker growth.

人们的担忧对象正转向增长疲软的前景。

Many economists forecast a recession early next year.

许多经济学家预测明年初将出现经济衰退。