美国的通货膨胀热可能最终会消退（下）

For the Fed these countervailing forces create a tricky balance.

对美联储来说，这些相互抵消的力量创造了一种微妙的平衡。

On the one hand, it has just administered the sharpest tightening of monetary policy in four decades, lifting interest rates from a floor of 0% in March to more than 4% today.

一方面，它刚刚实施了40年来最严厉的货币紧缩政策，将利率从3月份的0%提高到今天的4%以上。

With inflation ebbing, it is prudent to slow the pace of rate increases.

随着通货膨胀的消退，放慢加息速度是谨慎的做法。

On the other hand, a perception of Fed softening risks adding fuel to the market rally.

另一方面，有关美联储政策走软的看法有可能为市场反弹推波助澜。

That, in turn, would cause financial conditions to ease, thereby placing upward pressure on inflation.

这反过来又会导致金融状况缓解，从而给通胀带来上行压力。

The Fed has tried to resolve this conundrum by maintaining its hawkish tone at the same time as tweaking its policies.

美联储试图通过在调整政策的同时保持其鹰派基调来解决这个难题。

On December 14th the Fed raised rates by half a percentage point, ending a string of jumbo three-quarter-point increases.

12月14日，美联储将利率上调了0.5个百分点，结束了一系列大幅加息0.75个百分点的局面。

Most Fed officials believe that they will raise rates to more than 5% next year and refrain from cutting rates until 2024, according to the central bank’s latest projections.

根据美联储的最新预测，大多数美联储官员认为，他们明年将会把利率提高到5%以上，而且在2024年之前不会降息。

“Historical experience cautions strongly against prematurely easing,” said Mr Powell.

鲍威尔表示：“历史经验强烈告诫不要过早放松。”

Strikingly, many investors think the Fed will end up being more dovish.

令人惊讶的是，许多投资者都认为美联储最终会变得更加鸽派。

Bond pricing suggests that rates will peak at less than 5% and that the central bank will start cutting them before the end of 2023.

债券定价表明，利率峰值将低于5%，美联储将在2023年底之前开始降息。

Ultimately, the decision will come down to the data.

归根结底，美联储会作何决定将取决于数据。

Prices of consumer goods have started falling as pandemic-era shortages melt away.

随着疫情时期的短缺现象逐渐消失，消费品价格已经开始下降。

Housing prices are also trending lower.

房价也呈下降趋势。

The big lingering concern is whether a tight labour market will push incomes and, by extension, prices higher.

一大挥之不去的担忧是，紧张的劳动力市场是否会推高收入，进而推高物价。

Investors are betting that wage increases will slow as the economy weakens.

投资者押注，随着经济走软，工资增长将放缓。

The Fed, understandably, is not popping the champagne just yet.

美联储目前还没有开香槟庆祝，这是可以理解的。