战争对欧洲经济的影响(下)

The question now is how long they will keep spending.

现在的问题是，他们继续消费的情况还会持续多久。

Households began to tighten their purse strings in the fourth quarter of 2022.

家庭在2022年第四季度开始收紧钱包。

In Austria and Spain, for which detailed GDP figures are available, consumption dragged down quarterly growth by a percentage point.

在可获得详细GDP数据的奥地利和西班牙，消费将季度增长拉低了一个百分点。

Retail trade in the euro zone fell by 2.7% in December, compared with the month before.

欧元区12月零售贸易较前月下滑2.7%。

State handouts and price caps will be withdrawn this year.

国家救济和价格上限今年将会取消。

Consumption could become a problem.

消费可能会成为一个问题。

Meanwhile, inflation is proving stubborn.

与此同时，通胀被证明是顽固的。

“In the EU we have 27 different ways in which wholesale energy prices are passed on to consumers, which is a nightmare to forecast,” sighs a commission official.

“在欧盟，我们有27种不同的方式可以大规模地将能源价格转嫁给消费者，这将是一场噩梦。”一位欧盟委员会官员叹息道。

Some price pressure may still be on the way—as looks to be the case in Germany, where energy prices in January rose by 8.3% from December.

一些价格压力可能还未到来——德国的情况看起来就是如此，该国1月份的能源价格比去年12月上涨了8.3%。

Even if wholesale prices stabilise at current lower levels, household prices may prove erratic.

即使批发价格稳定在当前较低的水平，家庭消费价格可能也会反复无常。

Europe’s strong jobs market could add to inflation.

欧洲强劲的就业市场可能会加剧通胀。

High prices and labour shortages, which are likely to worsen as oldies retire and fewer youngsters enter the workforce, are pushing up pay demands.

高物价和劳动力短缺推高了工资要求，随着老年人退休和进入工作岗位的年轻人减少，劳动力短缺的情况可能会更严重。

In the Netherlands wages jumped by 4.8% in January, compared with a year earlier, after increasing by just 3.3% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2021.

在荷兰，工资在2022年和2021年分别仅增长3.3%和2.1%，今年1月份与去年同期相比，工资猛涨了4.8%。

Germany’s public-sector unions are threatening more strikes.

德国的公共部门工会威胁要举行更多罢工。

They want a whopping 10.5% raise, which could set the tone for comrades elsewhere.

他们想要高达10.5%的加薪，这可能会为其他地方的公务员们定下基调。

Data from Indeed, a hiring website, show that wages in the euro zone tend to follow underlying, or “core”, inflation.

招聘网站Indeed的数据显示，欧元区的薪资倾向于跟随潜在或“核心”通胀而变。

This shows no sign of softening.

这方面并没有显示出增长势头减轻的迹象。

The consumer-price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 7% in the year to January.

不包括食品和能源的消费者价格指数，今年1月份上涨了7%。

Services, in particular, face steeply rising costs, according to the PMI survey, which may lead to further price increases.

采购经理指数调查显示，服务业尤其面临成本急剧上升的问题，这可能会导致物价进一步上涨。

This leaves the European Central Bank with little choice but to keep interest rates high.

这让欧洲央行别无选择，只能维持高利率。

Markets expect them to rise from 2.5% to 3.7% in the summer.

市场预计到夏季，利率将从2.5%升至3.7%。

Funding for firms and households is thus set to get more expensive, hitting investment.

因此，为企业和家庭融资将变得更加昂贵，从而让投资受到打击。

Credit standards are already tightening, according to the bank’s lending survey.

根据欧洲央行的贷款调查，信贷标准已经在收紧。

And most of the impact of monetary tightening, Mr Eisenschmidt argues, is yet to be felt.

艾森施密特认为，货币紧缩的大部分影响尚未显现。

The euro zone may have escaped recession so far, but its prospects—stubborn core inflation, high interest rates and a weak economy—are hardly pleasant.

到目前为止，欧元区可能躲过了衰退，但它的经济前景——顽固的核心通胀、高利率和疲软的经济——并不令人愉快。

The IMF predicts 0.7% growth in 2023; the commission forecasts 0.9%.

国际货币基金组织预测2023年欧洲增长率为0.7%，欧盟委员会的预测是0.9%。

Even this might be optimistic.

即便是这种预测也可以说是乐观的。

America faces equally stubborn inflation, and China’s reopening has not provided much of a boost to the bloc.

美国面临着同样顽固的通胀，而中国重新放开也未给欧盟带来多少推动力。

Welcome to the grim new normal.

欢迎来到暗淡新常态。