战争对欧洲经济的影响(上)

Wartime Economics

战时经济

Europe dodges recession, but the continent's new normal looks grim.

欧洲躲过了经济衰退，但欧洲大陆的新常态前景暗淡。

After three years of pandemic shutdowns, reopening booms, war, clogged supply chains and nascent inflation, European policymakers thought that 2023 would be the year the old continent returned to a new normal of decent growth and sub-2% inflation.

在经历了三年的大流行封控、放开后的繁荣、战争、供应链阻塞和新出现的通胀之后，欧洲政策制定者本以为，2023年会是欧洲大陆恢复新常态的一年，即体面的增长率和低于2%的通胀率。

Europe’s economy is indeed settling down.

欧洲经济确实正在稳定下来。

Unfortunately, though, the new normal is considerably uglier than economists had expected.

然而，不幸的是，新常态远不如经济学家所预期的那样美好。

Start with the positives.

先看积极的方面。

The euro zone has proved remarkably resilient, considering the shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the energy crisis.

考虑到俄罗斯入侵乌克兰和能源危机的冲击之大，事实证明，欧元区的有很强的韧性。

Gas is now cheaper than it was on the eve of the conflict, after prices spiked last summer.

去年夏天天然气价格飙升后，现在的价格比战争前夕更低。

Governments were not forced to ration energy as had been feared at first, in part thanks to unseasonably warm weather.

政府没有像最初担心的那样被迫配给能源，这在一定程度上要归功于反常的温暖天气。

Headline inflation, having reached a record 10.6% in October, is falling.

总体通胀率在10月份达到了创纪录的10.6%，而现在正在下降。

Nor, as doom-mongers predicted, has industry collapsed because of the cost of fuel.

工业也不像末日论者预测的那样，因为燃料成本而崩溃。

In Germany, energy-intensive factories have seen output drop by a fifth since the war started, as imports replaced domestic production.

在德国，由于进口取代了国内生产，自战争开始以来，能源密集型工厂的产出下降了五分之一。

But production overall had fallen just 3% by the end of the year, in line with the pre-pandemic trend.

但到去年年底，总产量仅下降了3%，与大流行前的趋势一致。

The latest IFO survey shows manufacturers as optimistic as they were before covid-19.

IFO的最新调查显示，制造商和疫情前一样乐观。

Although Germany’s economy shrank slightly in the fourth quarter of 2022, the euro zone defied expectations of recession.

虽然德国经济在2022年第四季度略有收缩，但欧元区没有衰退的迹象。

According to the European Commission’s latest forecast, the bloc will avoid a contraction this quarter, too.

根据欧盟委员会的最新预测，欧盟本季度也将避免经济收缩。

Recent sentiment surveys support this projection.

最近的情绪调查也支持这一预测。

The widely watched purchasing-managers’ index (PMI) has risen in recent months, suggesting a rosier picture is emerging in manufacturing and, especially, services.

近几个月来，备受关注的采购经理指数有所上升，这表明制造业，尤其是服务业正在出现更光明的前景。

Economic stability keeps people in jobs.

经济稳定让人们保住了工作。

The number in work across the bloc rose again in the fourth quarter of 2022.

2022年第四季度，整个欧盟的就业人数再次上升。

The unemployment rate is at its lowest since the euro came into existence in 1999; in surveys, firms indicate appetite for new workers.

失业率处于1999年欧元问世以来的最低水平，在调查中，企业表示有意愿招聘新员工。

And jobs keep people spending.

而工作让人们不断消费。

Despite high energy prices, consumption contributed half a percentage point to quarterly growth in the second and third quarters of 2022.

尽管能源价格居高不下，但消费对2022年第二和第三季度的季度增长贡献了0.5个百分点。

In many countries, “the energy shock takes time to affect consumers because high prices are only passed on with a lag,” says Jens Eisenschmidt of Morgan Stanley, a bank.

摩根士丹利银行的延斯·艾森施密特说，在许多国家，“能源冲击要过一段时间才会影响到消费者，因为高价格在传递影响时只会滞后”。

“In the meantime, financial help from governments has helped households spend.”

“与此同时，政府的财政援助帮助家庭继续消费。”