民调：奥巴马小幅领先麦凯恩

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Recent public opinion polls in the U.S. presidential race give Democrat Barack Obama a lead over Republican John McCain. But the lead is less than expected given some Democratic advantages this election year.

最近有关美国总统竞选的民意调查发现，即将获得民主党总统候选人提名的巴拉克.奥巴马领先于共和党的约翰.麦凯恩。但是，鉴于民主党在今年选举中的一些有利因素，奥巴马领先的幅度要比预料的小。

Recent surveys give Senator Obama a lead of between three and six percentage points over Senator McCain with the election a little more than four months away.

现在距离美国总统大选还有四个多月的时间。最新的民意调查显示，奥巴马领先共和党的麦凯恩大约3到6个百分点。

Democrats are encouraged about their chances of winning back the White House this year after eight years of Republican control under President Bush.

在布什的领导下，经历了八年的共和党统治后，民主党人对今年能有机会赢回白宫深感鼓舞。

But some Republicans are pleasantly surprised at the closeness of the race given the public's general unhappiness with the economy, the war in Iraq and Mr. Bush's tenure.

鉴于民众对经济疲软、伊拉克战争以及布什任期的不满，一些共和党人对两人在竞选中比分如此接近感到惊喜。

Quinnipiac University pollster Clay Richards says a large number of voters apparently have already made up their minds about which candidate to support in November.

奎尼匹埃克大学从事民意调查的克莱.理查兹说，很显然，很大一批选民对将在11月的选举中支持哪位候选人已经作出了决定。

"Between 75 and 80 percent of voters said that their minds are made up," he noted. "So, the campaign, at this very early point, may come down to a battle for about 20 to 25 percent of the voters, with the rest having already committed."

理查兹说：“大约75%到80%的选民说，他们已经作出了决定。因此，竞选到目前这个阶段可能就是对20%到25%的选民的争夺。剩下的人已经决定了。”

A recent Quinnipiac poll in three crucial battleground states in November found that economic concerns were pushing more working class voters to support Obama. Those states were Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, all expected to be competitive in November.

奎尼匹埃克大学在三个竞争激烈的关键州的调查显示，美国民众对经济的担忧促使较多的工薪阶层选民更倾向支持奥巴马。这几个州分别是俄亥俄州、宾夕法尼亚州以及佛罗里达州。预计在11月的选举中，这几个州的竞争都将非常激烈。

Obama had trouble winning working class support in his primary battles with former rival Hillary Clinton, but pollster Clay Richards says he appears to be making some inroads.

奥巴马在初选中，也就是在与对手希拉里.克林顿争夺民主党提名时，在争取工薪阶层选民时遇到了困难。但是理查兹说，目前，奥巴马似乎已经取得一些进展。

"Obama is doing better among them than other Democratic candidates have done in the past," he added. "And if he maintains this kind of lead, or this kind of balance among blue collar whites, he will probably carry these three states."

他说：“奥巴马在工薪阶层选民中的支持率高于过去其他任何民主党候选人。如果他能在蓝领白人中保持这样的领先势头，或者这样的均势，那么，他就很有可能拿下这几个州。”

Republican John McCain finds himself in the difficult position of trying to succeed an unpopular president from his own party at a time when Americans are worried about the economy and rising fuel prices and believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.

共和党的麦凯恩也发现自己目前想要继任本党的一位不受欢迎的总统，处境堪忧。美国人目前对经济、昂贵的油价忧虑重重，而且他们认为美国目前的发展方向是错误的。

McCain has staked his presidential hopes on the belief that Americans would prefer victory in the war in Iraq to a hasty withdrawal of U.S. troops.

麦凯恩相信美国民众更希望赢得伊拉克战争，而不是草率地撤走美国军队，他把自己获胜的希望寄托在这个信念上。

Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown says Americans have concluded the Iraq war was not worth the cost, but he adds that they remain divided on what to do next.

奎尼匹埃克大学的另一位民意调查员彼德.布朗说，美国民众认为，伊拉克战争得不偿失。他补充说，他们只是对下一步如何走有分歧。

"By a 2-1 margin, voters think the war was a mistake," he noted. "But when we asked them where do we want to go from here and give them two choices. One, the McCain position of no fixed timetable for withdrawal and make the decision based on the security situation on the ground, and the Obama approach of a fixed timetable, they are basically split down the middle."

布朗说：“选民中认为伊拉克战争是错的比例占三分之二。然而当被问到下一步该怎么走，并给他们两个选择时， 一个是麦凯恩的立场，不设定撤军的时间表，根据当地的安全局势情况再作定夺；或是奥巴马的立场，设定时间表。他们的反应基本上是一半对一半。”

Senator McCain will emphasize his experience in the military and in Congress in the campaign, and will argue that Obama has too little experience in foreign policy and national security matters.

麦凯恩参议员在选举中将强调他的从军经历以及他在国会的经验。而且他还会说，奥巴马参议员在外交和国家安全事务上均缺乏经验。

Brookings Institution political scholar Thomas Mann says Senator Obama has some work to do in that area.

布鲁金斯学会的政治学者托马斯.曼说，在这个领域奥巴马还得下一番大功夫。

"Some people have doubts about his qualifications as commander in chief," he explained. "So, he has a hurdle to clear, a threshold to reach that he is trustworthy on matters pertaining to national security."

他说：“有些人对奥巴马是否有资格担任统帅感到怀疑。因此，他需要越过这个障碍，这个门槛，让别人相信，他在国家安全事务问题上是值得信赖的。”

Another factor that could keep the election close is Senator McCain's proven appeal to moderate and independent voters, who often tip the election in favor of one candidate over another.

竞选难分高下的另一个原因是，麦凯恩参议员已经证实在温和派和独立选民中很有亲和力。这股力量经常能决定选举，使得选举结果倾向某一位的候选人。

Democrats argue that McCain's close support of President Bush's policy on Iraq would lead to what they call a third Bush term.

民主党人说，麦凯恩是如此支持布什总统的伊拉克政策，因此，用他们的话说，麦凯恩的胜利等同于布什的第三个任期。

But analyst John Fortier of the American Enterprise Institute contends McCain may be able to counter some of those expected Democratic attacks.

但是美国企业研究所的分析人士约翰.福捷说，麦凯恩有能力反击预料中的民主党人的攻击。

"McCain does have the ability to distance himself from Bush, though, more than other Republicans," he said. "He is not somebody with a newly found moderation. McCain goes a long way back where he has been something of a maverick and opposing Bush, so I think he is going to be more able to resist that sort of criticism."

他说：“与其他共和党人相比，麦凯恩确实有能力与布什拉开距离。他不是最近才突然走上中间温和路线的。很久以前，麦凯恩就一直是个特立独行的人，他反对布什。 因此我认为，他有能力对这一类的攻击予以反击。”

McCain also faces a lingering challenge in trying to shore up support among conservative Republicans. Some conservatives distrust McCain and have been unhappy in the past when he has disagreed with President Bush and been critical of the Republican Party.

不过，麦凯恩在争取赢得保守的共和党人支持方面可能还会遇到一些挥之不去的挑战。一些保守派并不信任麦凯恩。他们对麦凯恩过去与布什持不同意见、并一直在批评共和党深感不满。