巴政府为何对激进组织采取行动？

巴基斯坦针对亲塔利班的激进分子所采取的军事行动引发了关于巴基斯坦政府动机和意图的疑问。巴基斯坦政府是否计划对付其它的激进组织？这些进攻是仅仅针对亲塔利班分子？分析人士还质疑，为什么巴基斯坦新政府突然加快了同激进分子间的和平谈判。

Since it came to power in February, the elected government made it clear that it preferred talking with some of the pro-Taliban militant groups, rather than fighting all of them. But the government dispatched paramilitary forces to root out militant strongholds near Peshawar, the capital of Pakistan's North West Frontier Province.

自从今年2月上台以来，巴基斯坦政府清楚地表示，它更愿意同一些亲塔利班的激进组织谈判，而不是同所有这些组织开战。但是，巴基斯坦政府还是派遣了准军事部队去消灭西北边境省首府白沙瓦附近的激进组织据点。

The move came after pro-Taliban groups became increasingly bolder, setting up parallel local administrations in some areas of the Khyber agency, an area that acts as the main land route into Afghanistan and its capital, Kabul.

在政府采取这一行动前，亲塔利班组织日益猖獗，它们在开伯尔部落特区的一些地方建立自己管辖的地方政府。开伯尔部落特区是通往阿富汗及其首都喀布尔的主要陆上通道。

Pro-Taliban groups, along with al-Qaida, have been reconstituting themselves in Pakistan's tribal areas, where they have found a safe haven from which to attack U.S. and NATO troops across the border in Afghanistan.

亲塔利班组织和基地组织一直在巴基斯坦部落地区进行重整，它们在部落地区找到了安全的藏身所，并从那里跨越边界向阿富汗境内的美军和北约军队发动袭击。

As U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates noted last week, this has dismayed the United States, which has been trying to get Pakistan to do more to battle Islamic militancy.

正如美国国防部长盖茨上周指出的那样，这种情况令美国感到担心。美国一直试图让巴基斯坦做更多工作，打击伊斯兰激进组织。

"Clearly the ability of the Taliban and other insurgents to cross that border, and not being under any pressure from the Pakistani side of the border is clearly a concern. I think that needs to be addressed with the Pakistani government," he said.

他说：“很显然，塔利班和其它暴乱分子能够跨过边境，并且不受来自巴基斯坦方面的任何阻挠就能这样做，这令人担心。我认为，巴基斯坦政府需要解决这一问题。”

Ken Katzman, a South Asia and Middle East analyst at the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service, says U.S. pressure forced Pakistan to act.

非党派组织美国国会研究服务部的南亚及中东问题研究员卡茨曼说，美国的压力迫使巴基斯坦采取行动。

"The militants have been making inroads into Peshawar for many months, if not longer, and I do not think anything happened necessarily in Peshawar happened that was new this week to prompt this. But what was new the past couple of weeks was the stepped-up U.S. pressure. I think Pakistan knows that unless they start acting the U.S. might start acting more unilaterally, and has indeed started acting somewhat more unilaterally," he said.

他说：“激进分子侵占白沙瓦的情况至少已经持续了几个月了，我不认为这个星期白沙瓦一定发生了什么新的事情激化了目前的局面。但是，过去几周以来的一个新现象是，美国增大了对巴基斯坦的压力。我认为，巴基斯坦知道，如果他们不采取行动，美国就可能开始增加单边行动，而且美国实际上也已经这么做了。”

Katzman cited a report in the New York Times newspaper that says U.S. officials drafted a secret plan to launch covert missions against militants in the mountains of Pakistan, but the plan languishes because of policy differences. Katzman says the story was leaked as part of the U.S. campaign to increase pressure on Islamabad.

卡茨曼引述美国纽约时报的一篇报导说，美国有关官员曾起草了一份秘密计划，准备对巴基斯坦山区中的激进分子采取秘密行动，不过由于政策上的分歧这一计划未能实施。卡茨曼说，这个消息被透露给媒体是美国向伊斯兰堡增大压力的一个手段。

But U.S. Army War College National Security Studies Professor Larry Goodson disagrees that American pressure forced Pakistan's hand.

但是，美国陆军战争学院国家安全研究教授古德森不同意这种观点，他说，美国并没能迫使巴基斯坦采取行动。

"It has always seemed to me that the external pressure has never amounted to much in the Pakistani equation, and that that has gotten even less over the years because of the deeper or deepened, shall we say, perception among Pakistanis that the American relationship is very much a fair weather relationship," he said.

他说：“我一直觉得，外部压力从来不会对巴基斯坦构成什么影响。此外，由于巴基斯坦人越来越觉得美国和巴基斯坦只是‘只能同甘不能共苦’的朋友，所以外部的压力能起的作用这些年来变得更小了。”

Goodson says a threat to the Khyber Agency and Peshawar was too much for Pakistan to abide. He adds it is easier to mount an offensive against militants in the Khyber Agency than in more remote tribal sanctuaries.

古德森说，巴基斯坦不能忍受开伯尔部落特区和白沙瓦存在的威胁。他还说，在开伯尔部落特区对激进分子发动袭击比在其它偏远的部落地区要容易。

"But I think that the primary concern is, Peshawar is critical. They cannot allow these guys to have a real toehold in that area. And they can operate in the Khyber in ways that they cannot in Waziristan and so forth. So they sort of dress it up in this sort of cleavage between the really bad and the less bad [militants], that that is the strategy. But in reality they are picking the low-hanging fruit from an operational point of view," he said.

他说：“我认为，最主要的考虑是，白沙瓦是一个关键地区。巴基斯坦人不能允许激进分子在那里有一个真正的立足之地。所以他们提出了所谓真正坏的激进分子和不那么坏的激进分子的区别，并说这就是他们的战略。实际上，他们是在从可操作性角度上挑选比较容易对付的敌人。”

It is not known if the offensive marks a broader strategic shift by the government or is only a limited operation. But analysts point out that Pakistani Taliban commander Baitullah Mehsud, who Islamabad has accused of organizing the assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, announced he is halting peace talks with the government.

目前还不清楚这些攻势是代表着巴基斯坦政府要更广泛地改变其战略，还是只是有限的行动。不过，分析人员指出，巴基斯坦的塔利班头目马苏德宣布，他将停止同巴基斯坦政府的和平谈判。巴基斯坦指控马苏德策划了对前总理布托女士的刺杀行动。