伊朗核谈判继续
Negotiators from Iran and six world powers are set to meet once again on Tuesday, in the Austrian capital Vienna. Representatives from the US, Britain, France, China, Russia and Germany are trying to reach a deal with their Iranian counterparts on limiting Iran’s nuclear program. It’s being seen as a last chance within the current talks framework, ahead of a November 24th deadline.
For months now, diplomats from six world powers have known what a deal over Iran’s disputed nuclear program would look like- all that’s missing are the details.
How much uranium will Iran be allowed to enrich How much will Iran reveal about its disputed nuclear program How vigorous will international inspections be, and for Iran, will international sanctions be lifted
"I think it’s likely -50%, I think at the end of the day they’ve come so far to walk away at this point. It’s going to be tremendously costly for both sides," says Trita Parsi, National Iranian American council.
But a potential nuclear deal has to also get past domestic political hurdles. Yet analysts say the leaders of the U-S and Iran have an opportunity to find common ground. President Obama and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei have reportedly been exchanging secret letters in the past few years.
The U-S Congress has been keeping the pressure on for a deal by pushing for more Iran sanctions. But now that the U-S Presidents’ political opposition controls Congress, there are concerns it could set back chances for an agreement.
"Ultimately, this infighting between the President and Congress has not added up to some sort of a brilliant "good cop bad cop" game that is putting pressure on the Iranians. On the contrary, it’s undermined the President’s credibility to negotiate with credibility. As a result, the President and the US position has become weaker, rather than stronger," Parsi says.
There are divisions, too, in Iran. The moderate government of Hassan Rouhani wants a nuclear deal more than the hardline conservatives. Rouhani was elected to help fix the economy, and lifting sanctions would help. But some in Iran could never foresee a deal with the U-S.
There are differences among the international negotiating partners. Russia is key to any deal. Moscow has offered to process Iranian enriched uranium into fuel, but there are deep divisions with the West over Ukraine and Syria.
France has taken a strong stance on Iran- wanting safeguards in any deal that give the West a longer warning time if Tehran decides to make a nuclear weapon.
In the Middle East, both Israel and Saudi Arabia are lobbying against a deal that would allow Iran to keep producing uranium. Two years ago, Israel warned that Iran could produce a nuclear weapon within six months if it decided to. Saudi officials say they may build uranium enrichment facilities if Iran is allowed to keep theirs.
With so many forces lining up against a deal, there has been less optimism in recent days as the Vienna talks are set to get underway. One possibility would be to extend the talks again for another six months. But given the current U-S political landscape and the tensions in the Middle East, would a deal be any more likely in another six months' time.
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