伊朗和以色列一触即发

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President Obama is working to open up a dialogue with Iran, but Israeli President Shimon Peres is not ruling out Israeli military action against the Islamic republic if diplomacy doesn't work out. Our next guest and expert on the nuclear tensions gripping the Middle East right now, he's the author of "Bomb Scare: the History and Future of Nuclear Weapons. Joining us from Washington, Joe Cirincione, the President of the Ploughshares Fund. There have been overtures from Iran, suggestions that they are open to talking about their nuclear programme, should we buy into that?

Well, I think what you can expect, Jon, over the next few weeks, is a little bit of posturing on all sides here. President Ahmadinejad of Iran has said that he welcomes direct talks with the United States, but he has no intention of giving up Iran's nuclear programme. He's basically restating Iran's position. The United States, on the other side, has now decided to join for the first time in the P5+1 talks, that is, the talks held by the five members in the Security Council, plus Germany. They are negotiating with Iran to try to bring a suspension and possible rollback of its nuclear programme. You can expect the US to reassert its position. Over the next few weeks, you can expect to see this kind of posturing: both sides stating their core positions, sitting down, starting the discussions and then the negotiations will begin. I understand that the invitations have now gone out, in the last couple of days that we can expect these talks to begin sometime, perhaps by the end of this month, but certainly in May. United States would like to begin these talks before the Iranian presidential elections in June.

Well, Shimon Peres, the Israeli president, as I mentioned in the lead-in there, said over the weekend that we will, I mean, meaning the Israelis will strike Iran if the negotiations don't go anywhere, some pretty tough language there.

That is, and partially you have to expect this to be a little bit of [a] domestic Israeli posturing, so here's Labour Leader Peres showing that he's just as tough as Likud Party Leader Netanyahu. Second, these are directed at the United States. They wanna stiffen and spunk the United States. They want the US negotiators to know that Israel is gonna be looking. But I don't expect that there actually be an Israeli strike. President, rather Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates just earlier this month said that he doesn't expect that Iran will cross any threshold this year that would trigger an Israeli strike, and the Joint Chiefs are strongly against this. Admiral Mike Mullen said last year that we already have two wars in the Middle East, we don't need a third.

Joe Cirincione, from the Ploughshares Fund, Joe, thank you.

My pleasure.
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Glossary [only for reference]

open something up: to start a discussion or argument

rule something out: to decide that something is not possible or suitable

Islamic republic: the name given to several states in the Muslim world including the Islamic Republics of Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Mauritania.

work out: if a problem or complicated situation works out, it gradually gets better or gets solved

grip [transitive]: to have a strong effect on someone or something

overtures [plural]: an attempt to begin a friendly relationship with a person, country etc

The Ploughshares Fund: a public grantmaking foundation that supports initiatives to prevent the spread and use of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons and other weapons of war, and to prevent conflicts that could lead to the use of weapons of mass destruction.
buy into something: informal to accept that an idea is right and allow it to influence you

posturing [uncountable and countable]: formal when someone pretends to have a particular opinion or attitude

rollback [uncountable and countable]: especially American English, an occasion when a tax, price, law etc is reduced to a previous level or changed so that it is the way it used to be

reassert [transitive]: to state a fact or opinion again, often more strongly or more clearly

lead-in [countable]: remarks made by someone to introduce a radio or television show

not go anywhere [=not get anywhere]: informal to not be successful at all

tough language [=strong language]: words that most people think are offensive

stiffen [intransitive and transitive]: to become stronger, more severe, or more determined, or to make something do this

spunk: to encourage

Joint Chiefs [=The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS)]: a group of military leaders in the United States armed forces who advise the civilian government of the United States.

threshold [countable]: the level at which something starts to happen or have an effect

admiral [countable]: a high rank in the British or US navy, or someone with this rank