美国可能将中国列为汇率操纵国

US lawmakers promised to talk with the Treasury Secretary before coming to more conclusions. But pressure mounted to designate China as a currency manipulator.

Well, I think if we don't label China a currency manipulator, we will look like the wimps of the Western world.

What's incredible, say Chinese officials, is that the US wants to make Beijing the scapegoat of its own economic problems. The Chinese government will not succumb to foreign pressure to adjust our exchange rate. To force the appreciation of the renminbi will be counterproductive.

A few areas to consider here. US economists think that renminbi or the Yuan may be undervalued by as much as 40 percent. Some argue it's costing the US 1.5 million jobs. But adding tariffs to Chinese imports would risk reprisals. What if China stop buying US treasuries, helping fund those huge US deficit. That was just one scenario outlined on Capitol Hill this week, but even the economists couldn't agree.

I was at a conference in London last week, at which a leading Chinese economist said the following: My recommendation is that China should buy no more US treasuries, but should not sell them all at once. When he said these words, there was a stunned silence in the room.

First of all, if they would stop buying treasuries like the guy said, we could declare a victory. That's what we want. We want them to let the exchange rate of the renminbi go up. The way they keep it from going up is to buy dollars, to buy treasuries. That will be victory.

So what should the US do? We ask out Flash Brief analysts.

China is seeing this as a domestic virility test. It doesn't want to be seen to be bowing to US pressure on this issue. And I think that that means that we need to think with cooler heads about what will be the best way to try and get China to change its mind. This might not be the best way.

Keep in mind this statistic. By the year 2020, there will be more than 300 million Chinese over the age of 65. That's the size of the entire US population. That the Chinese will have to maintain a certain standard of living for them. That will consume a lot of Chinese wealth.

If the US brands China a currency manipulator, it could trigger a tit-for-tat of protectionist measures, the same kind of measures that cause the Great Depression. This will be a disaster for the global economy and doom the current weak recovery.

Napoleoni in China right now, reminds us that the Chinese public is firmly behind their government. They don't want a stronger Yuan in their wallets. It's going to jeopardize their jobs. In their view, the economic success of China isn't what's ailing the US.

I'm Jim Clancy, you've been briefed.

Glossary

wimp: 懦弱的人
succumb: 屈服，屈从
reprisal: 报复（行为）
virility: the typically male quality of being strong, brave, and full of energy - used to show approval
what ails sth: formal the thing or things that are causing difficulties for something