什么将影响经济市场的走向

So, what else is going to be moving the markets this week？Manoj Ladwa is a senior trader at XT, at ETX Capital, excuse me, joins us live from London. Manoj, (you’re) talking a lot about the euro-zone debt problems again, the US jobless numbers not working as good as everyone has hoped, inflation fears in China, is there a feeling that the mood perhaps is starting to turn once again after that good start last week?

Well, certainly they think that spurred, that’s a case in the last couple of trading sessions or so, Andrew. While we had a good finish to the area

in December, we had a good  start to the week last week, but see all these concerns, all these concerns that were cropping up in 2010 that wearing the ugly head, very early into 2011 as well. And although I think the first six months of this year could be fairly good, I think the second six months could be quite difficult. We’ve got corporate numbers as you mentioned coming out from Alco kicking off their figures, the markets can be watching them very closely as well, because if we start to see any dipping in top-line revenue, if we start to miss analysts' expectations, we start to see these figures being revised downside, and equity markets are gonna react negatively.

Have the equity markets generally priced in better-than-expected earnings, cause if you look it back at the quarterly performance of the Dow stocks, they have been exceeding expectations to something like the past six quarters, so that’s already baked in. So anything on the downside will have a bigger effect?

Well, absolutely. Well, there’s the argument that analysts have been low-balling their estimates, so that when companies report their figures, they’re automatically coming on the upside. I don’t think this is entirely the case, but of the last couple of quarters, what we’ve seen is a lot of cost-cutting, and that certainly boosted profit margins. We don’t wanna see that going forward, we

want to see top-line growth, if we don’t see that, then equity markets (haven’t), have probably affected in the lobby too much and we could start to see a pull-back from these levels.

Now what about the euro-zone, Manoj? We’ve got the big Portuguese debt auction on Wednesday. We've got Spain and Italy, also issuing bonds on Thursday. How concerned are you that if Portugal doesn’t get this 10-year bond issue away, that it will upset the markets and we could see another economy going cap in hand to the stabilization fund for a bailout?

Well, it is obviously averred, because it'll be a bigger concern if it was a bigger country such as France, for instance, going to issue these debts and get these debts away but what I think we'll find in Portugal is it does get the debt away but it may have to pay a higher price in order to get the trade done, ultimately that the markets will send the euro is being, to sum-mixed then propped up by the fact that China is interested in purchasing some European debt, but don’t think this is enough to sustain the euro current levels, do see the euro trading down around about the 120 level in the next few months or so.

So how do you say the markets are faring this week generally? I mean when we are talking about the current numbers we have to wait to see, but it sounds to me like there’s a lot more caution now than there has been.

Well, certainly they think that’s the case. We saw a very good wrap in the market last week, and it was on very good volume as well, so I think anyone that was sitting out from the market in December came into the new year had started buying up stocks, pushed the markets to new highs for the year but then it starts to look a little bit weak and it could be a blowout as we called in the game, and we could have seen a short-term top and then we start to come back off from here, but it may not be a bad thing, it’s quite healthy to have a retracement to pull back, and the market looks stronger if it does pull back significantly and former base start to move back up.

Ok, Manoj, thanks very much for joining us. Manoj Ladwa with ETX Capital, thank you.