特朗普贸易策略如何影响华尔街？

Barely seven months ago Donald Trump was in China on an all-singing state visit, during which two key priorities emerged. The first — his concern with North Korea’s nuclear threat and his keenness that Chinese president Xi Jinping should help defuse it — has all but evaporated after the US-North Korea peace summit a fortnight ago.

7个多月以前，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)对中国进行了一次气氛非常友好的国事访问，其中有两个关键性优先事项。第一个优先事项是特朗普担忧朝鲜核威胁并热切希望中国国家主席习近平帮助缓和这种威胁。在朝美峰会于两周前举行以后，这已经不再是一个问题。

The second — the US-China trade deficit — was outlined in emollient language last November. Yet, over recent weeks, the US president has rechannelled his protectionist aggression, announcing a total of $253bn of tariffs on Chinese goods, sparking retaliatory measures from Beijing. Two-way tariffs covering steel, aluminium and some agricultural goods have already been introduced.

第二个优先事项是美国对华贸易逆差，在去年11月的那次国事访问中，双方用平和的语言阐述了这个问题。然而，最近数周以来，美国总统重新发起保护主义攻势，宣布对总额2530亿美元的中国产品征收关税，此举促使北京方面实施报复性措施。涉及钢铁、铝和一些农产品的双向关税已经推出。

Sunday’s announcement by the People’s Bank of China that it would release more than $100bn of commercial bank reserves as an economic stimulus has been presented largely as a response to the trade spat. But it has a far broader back-story — and far more profound implications, both for China’s vast finance sector, and for Wall Street.

上周日中国央行宣布，将降低商业银行存款准备金率、释放逾1000亿美元资金，作为一种经济刺激。此举主要是为了应对中美贸易争端。但中国央行降准的背景绝不仅仅是中美贸易战，其对中国庞大的金融业，乃至华尔街的影响也要深远得多。

This is just the latest reserve cut. The last one was in April, and is part of an effort to mitigate the impact of a regulatory crackdown on banks.

这是中国央行最新的一次降准。上一次降准是在今年4月实施的，那次降准的一个目的是缓和监管机构打压银行造成的冲击。

Financial sector risk has clearly been at the top of the Chinese government agenda for the past year. New limitations on the creation of banks’ off-balance sheet wealth management products translated into a sharp decline in the volume of interbank funding, down 10 per cent in the first five months of the year. The reserve release — essentially freeing up years of excess deposit accumulation — will ease the squeeze on bank funding. But it will be crucial to monitor how the funds are deployed. Andrew Polk at Trivium, a Beijing-based advisory firm, sees the initiative as “a painkiller, not a steroid”.

在过去的一年中，金融部门的风险显然是中国政府的首要议程。对银行推出表外理财产品的新限制导致银行间融资的规模急剧下降——在今年头5个月下降了10%。这次存款准备金的释放（基本上是解放多年来积累的过量的准备金）将缓解银行资金的紧张。但追踪这些资金的去向将非常关键，位于北京的策纬咨询公司(Trivium)的安德鲁波尔克(Andrew Polk)认为，这些举措是“止痛药，不是兴奋剂”。

At last November’s Trump-Xi summit, there was much excitement among foreign financial services groups when it emerged that banks and insurance companies would be freed up to buy out local joint venture partners — a landmark reform. For Goldman and JPMorgan, among the groups seeking to exploit the liberalisation, the US president has just proved yet again that what Mr Trump giveth, Mr Trump taketh away.

在去年的11月的“特习会”期间，中方宣布外资银行和保险公司将能够收购中国本土合资伙伴的股份，这个具有里程碑意义的改革引起了外国金融服务公司的极大兴奋。和其他公司一样，高盛和摩根大通(JPMorgan)希望利用中方的金融开放获利，然而，这两家公司将会发现，美国总统刚刚已经再次证明，赏赐的是特朗普，收回的也是特朗普。