极端天气对经济的影响

In June and July last year, temperatures in Russia exceeded 40 degrees Celsius. The resulting drought caused severe losses in agricultural production in southwest Russia. Wheat production in Russia was reduced by 30 percent compared to the previous year.

This triggered a surge in the wheat price on international grain markets of 60 to 80 percent.

The effect of extreme weather is not only limited to agriculture. The snow storms in the US at the beginning of 2011 stalled the construction industry, directly affecting the real estate industry. More than 6,000 flights were cancelled and extreme weather brought severe losses to the transportation, tourism and delivery industries.

And now the record cold weather is still gripping the northern hemisphere causing casualties and making people's lives difficult.

Zhu Dingzhen, a senior engineer with China's Meteorological Bureau says the current extreme cold weather may have a serious impact to the economy.

"The recent warm winter eased people's state of readiness, and also the crop-growing season has been shifted. A strong, sudden and continuous extreme cold weather may cause shortages of agricultural products. Not only agriculture, but also power and heating suppliers may also face the same situation. However, it's not all bad news. This is a good time for down jacket manufacturers and enterprises which rely on cold weather."

Zhu Dingzhen also adds that the extreme weather may have a serious impact on people engaged in futures transactions.

Zhang Yu, a doctor of economics at Nankai University, says that as well as the impact on the actual economy, in the long term, the frequent extreme weather may have a serious effect on financial markets.

"The extreme weather may affect people's anticipation of the economy's direction, and even bring panic. For instance, will insufficient food and energy supply become normal in our daily lives? Plus, many countries haven't even recovered from the worldwide financial crisis, and bad weather may increase the government's burden, thus, making it more difficult to restore the economy."

Zhang Yu says extreme weather is not only a consequence of natural effects, and further points out that policy makers should reconsider their current economic growth patterns.

"Natural disasters like extreme weather are accumulated result of sacrificing the ecological environment and taking only GDP as an economic growth standard. If policy makers want to solve the problem from the root, changing the current economic growth pattern and restoring the environment are the key issues they need to consider."

Zhang Yu suggests that central government perfect the emergency response system and lower transportation costs, because high transportation costs can add more pressure to disaster relief work after natural disaster.

For CRI, I am Li Dong.