发展中国家在全球投资不断增长

The developing world is poised to become a major player in global investment. The World Bank says in fewer than 20 years half the global stock of capital will be in developing countries. That compares to about one-third today. The bank has released the latest edition of its Global Development Horizons report.
发展中国家有望在全球投资中扮演重要角色。世界银行表示，在20年内，一半的全球股市资本将会集中在发展中国家。而在今天，这个比例只有三分之一。世界银行已经发布了最新的《全球发展展望》报告。

The World Bank forecasts, by 2030, “developing countries’ share in global investment is projected to triple” to nearly 160-trillion dollars. Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President Kaushik Basu said that “demographic changes will profoundly influence structural shifts.”
世界银行表示，在2030年之前，发展中国家在全球投资中占的比重将达到160万亿，是现在的三倍。世行首席经济学家、高级副总裁考希克.巴苏（Kaushik Basu）表示，“人口结构的变化将会对结构转型有重大影响”。

“Population will increase from the current roughly seven billion to eight-point-five billion at the end of 2030. Some societies will be well advanced in the process of aging. The demographic bulge in different countries will progress at different paces. And the big question that should concern us all is what will happen to the major drivers of growth and development, namely savings and investment – and in particular, infrastructural investment.”
“到2030年，世界人口将会从现在的70亿增长至85亿。一些国家将会在老龄化过程中达到非常发达。不同国家的人口膨胀将会以不同速度发展。而我们最关心的问题还是储蓄和投资——尤其是基础设施投资——的发展动向，因为他们是增长和发展的主要来源。”

The report is being released during – what Basu called – troubling times. He said there is a “decoupling between the world of finance and the real economy.”
巴苏说，这份报告是在“令人不安的时期”发布的。他说，金融世界和实体经济之间存在着脱节。

“By most financial indicators we are doing better, distinctly better, actually, than a year ago. But if you look at the real economy, including the news that came from Europe, the recession is prolonging. Europe is probably into the longest stagnation since 1945. There is a trap lurking at every level of income for every country. Policymakers have to be aware of that,” he said.
他说：“从大多数金融指数来看，我们现在已经比一年之前的情况要好很多。但是如果从实体经济来看，欧洲经济不振等信息显示，经济衰退还在持续。欧洲很可能已经陷入了1945年以来的最长时间经济停滞。”

He admitted that long-term economic forecasting can be difficult. However, he said that the Global Development Horizons report reveals “a host of interesting trends.”
巴苏承认，长期经济预测是很困难的。但是同时，他也表示《全球发展展望》报告中显示了“很多有意思的趋势”。

“By 2030, we are also being told that China and India will be the largest investors in the world. Developing countries will account for 47 to 60 percent of global capital flows in 2030. This is an amazing shift from the current roughly 23 percent,” he said.
他说：“到2030年，中国和印度将成为世界上最大的投资者。届时，发展中国家将会在全球资本流动中占47%至60%的比重。相比于现在23%的比重，这是一个了不起的转变。”

That’s expected to continue until the late 2030s, when another region will rise.
预计这个趋势将持续至21世纪30年代后期；届时，另一个区域将会崛起。

“At that stage,” he said, “the demographic dividend will be on the rise in sub-Saharan Africa. A lot of our global attention will no doubt turn to the great opportunities that will happen in sub-Saharan Africa.”
 “在这个时期，撒哈拉以南非洲地区的人口红利将会上升。毫无疑问，该地区的重大机会将会吸引来全球性的关注。”

The report paints a scenario of deeper financial market development there. It adds that foreign investors will become much more willing to invest in the region. Also, sub-Saharan Africa will have a much younger labor force than many other parts of the world.
报告中描绘了撒哈拉以南非洲地区的更深化的金融市场发展。并且，外国投资者也将更愿意在该地区投资。而该地区也将拥有世界上最年轻的劳动力市场。

“By 2030, for every dollar that will be invested in the world 60 cents will be invested in developing countries. This is a dramatic change with respect to the past. For almost four decades, from the 60s to the 90s and 2000, the investments were only 20 cents to the dollar. So this is a major change,” said  Maurizio Bussolo, lead author of the World Bank report.
毛里齐奥.布索罗是这份报告的主笔。他说：“到2030年，在每1美元的投资中，就有60美分将被投资在发展中国家。与过去相比，这是个剧烈的转变。在20世纪60年代至2000年的将近40年中，每1美元的投资中仅有20美分被用在发展中国家。因此这是个重大转变。”

 “This is happening even though we foresee the investment rates coming down across all the regions. This is because growth will decelerate from [a] very high level and there will be a lot of churning within countries where investment will shift toward service sectors from agricultural and manufacturing.”
 “我们预计，这个趋势将发生在全球投资率下降的大背景下。这是因为，增长速率将从一个很高的水平往下降，并且在投资逐渐从农业和制造业向服务业转移的国家，会产生大幅震荡。”

The report also says that “unlike in the past, developing countries will likely have the resources needed to finance massive future investments for infrastructure and services, including education and health care.”
另外，报告中指出，“与过去不同的是，发展中国家将能够汇集资源，在未来用于投资基础设施和服务，其中包括教育和医疗”。

Education is described as the best opportunity for policymakers to increase the earning capacity of its poor citizens.
教育被政策制定者认为是贫穷的国民用来增强盈利能力的最好机会。