2018年十大全球性危机

Eurasia Group released its predictions for the biggest global risks in 2018.Here’s what to watch for in the geopolitical landscape this year.

欧亚集团公布了其对2018年全球危机的预测，以下是今年的全球地理政治全景。

10: Security in Africa

10.非洲安全

Instability in less-developed countries like Somalia and Mali will spill over into Africa’s core countries. Dangers from the terror groups like al-Shabab will intensify. Increased security costs will hurt countries like Kenya and Nigeria.

索马里和马里这类欠发达国家的动荡将会影响到非洲的核心国家。来自青年党等恐怖组织的威胁进一步加剧，而不断加剧的安全防卫支出将会影响到肯尼亚，尼日利亚这些国家。

9: Identity politics in Southern Asia

9.南亚的身份政治

Islamism, anti-Chinese sentiments, and intensifying nationalism in India are leading to a rise of populism. Persecution of Muslim Rohingya has triggered a humanitarian crisis. Prime Minister Modi’s use of Hindu Nationalism in the 2019 election could give cover to radicalized elements of society.

伊斯兰主义，反中国情绪和不断加剧的爱国主义，在印度越来越流行。对穆斯林洛兴雅族的迫害也引起了人道主义危机。印度总理莫迪在2019年选举将采用的印度教爱国主义也将使社会充满激进情绪。

8: United Kingdom

8英国

Brexit negotiations could lead to endless fights. It could also cost Prime Minister Theresa May her job. Her potential replacement could complicate Brexit talks even further.

脱欧导致的一系列谈判可能会导致无尽的争斗，而且也可能会使总理特蕾莎丢掉她的工作。谁会取代她也将使英国脱欧进程复杂化。

7: Protectionism 2.0

7.2.0保护主义

Anti-establishment movements have led to proposals of border walls and metaphorical walls in the global economy.Policy makers are now forced to work more on “behind-the-border” measures like bailouts, subsidies, and “buy local” requirements.Protectionism 2.0 creates barriers in the digital economy and in blue-collar industries as well.

反制度运动可能会掀起新一轮的边境限制以及全球经济上中虚拟边境限制。政策制定者可能被迫采取更多贸易壁垒政策，比如，贸易救助，贸易补贴，仅购买本国商品的政策。2.0保护主义在数字经济以及蓝领产业都将竖立新的贸易壁垒。

6: The erosion of institutions

6:机构腐败

Institutions like governments, the courts, political parties, and the media continue to lose public credibility. Anti-establishment populism could lead to political turmoil and authoritarianism in some countries.

像政府、法庭、政党以及媒体等机构在不断丧失其公信力。反机制主义的盛行，可能会导致一些国家政治动荡以及独裁主义。

5: US-Iran relations

5美国-伊朗关系

Trump will support Saudi Arabia to contain Iran in other countries like Syria and Yemen. Iran will push back against more sanctions from the US.If the Iran Nuclear Deal can’t hold, Iran will ramp up its nuclear program, creating another threat to the US and Israel.

特朗普将会支持沙特阿拉伯，用叙利亚和也门等国家，继续遏制伊朗。而伊朗将会进一步抵制美国的制裁。如果伊朗核谈判无法成功，那么伊朗将会继续其核计划，成为对美国以色列的一大威胁。

4: Mexico

4:墨西哥

Uncertainty over NAFTA could harm Mexico’s economy and play a major role in the country’s election. Voter frustration over corruption, drug gangs, and slow growth could lead to a new president. Obrador could break with previous investor-friendly economic policies.

北美自由贸易协定的不确定性也将进一步损害墨西哥的经济，并将在该国家的选举中起到非常重要的作用。选民们对腐败，贩毒集团和低迷经济可能会产生新的主席。欧布拉多可能会改变之前利于投资的政策环境。

3: Global tech cold war

3世界技术冷战

US and China will compete to master artificial intelligence and supercomputing. Both countries will struggle for market dominance all around the world. Fragmentation of the tech companies could lead to major market and security risks.

中美将会在超级计算机以及人工智能方面抢占制高点，不断竞争。两国还会不停地抢占全球市场展开竞争。而科技公司的分裂可能会导致主要市场的安全风险

2: Accidents

2:大型事故

While there hasn’t been a major geopolitical crisis since 9/11, there are many places where a misstep could lead to serious conflict.

尽管9.11后已经没有大的地理政治事故，但是在很多地方，只要一次小的错位，就可能引起严重冲突。

The likeliest risks:

类似风险：

Conflict in cyberspace, fighting over North Korea, battlefield accidents in Syria, US-Russia tension and dispersal of ISIS fighters.

网络空间的冲突，朝鲜半岛问题，叙利亚总统，俄罗斯美国之间的紧张关系，ISIS组织。

1: China loves a vacuum

1中国热爱空白市场。

China has developed the most effective global trade and investment strategy.It uses Chinese tech companies to advance state interests and has extended its influence in other countries that are now more likely to align and imitate it. A US-China conflict on trade will become more likely this year.

中国已经发展出高效的全球贸易和投资模式。中国使用科技公司提升国家利益，扩展其影响力，特别是哪些愿意和其结盟或者模仿其发展的国家.中美之间的贸易冲突今年很有可能发生。