发达国家经济新挑战：债务不断累积

Developed nations face a rising tide of government debt that poses “a significant challenge” to budgets as interest rates increase around the world, the OECD has warned.

经济合作与发展组织(OECD，以下简称“经合组织”)警告称，发达国家面临日益上升的政府债务，随着世界各地利率上调，这些债务对其预算构成“重大挑战”。

Low interest rates have helped sustain high levels of government debt and persistent budget deficits since the financial crisis, according to the OECD, but the “relatively favourable” sovereign funding environment “may not be a permanent feature of financial markets”.

经合组织称，从金融危机爆发至今，低利率帮助各国政府维持高债务水平和持续的预算赤字，但“相对有利”的主权融资环境“可能并非金融市场的永久特征”。

Fatos Koc, senior policy analyst at the OECD, cautioned that most members of the organisation - sometimes dubbed the rich nations’ club - confront an “increasing refinancing burden from maturing debt, combined with continued budget deficits”.

经合组织有时被称为“富国俱乐部”。经合组织的高级政策分析师法托什.科奇(Fatos Koc)告诫称，该组织的大多数成员国面临“债务到期带来的日益加重的再融资负担，再加上持续的预算赤字”。

The warning on the longer-term consequences of high public borrowing marks a shift in stance by the OECD, which as recently as November was praising countries for easing fiscal policy to help global growth.

对大规模公共借款的较长期后果发出警告，标志着经合组织的立场转变。就在去年11月，该组织还在赞扬各国放宽财政政策以帮助全球增长。

In an Economic Outlook, published at that time, the Paris-based organisation said that “even a lasting increase in 10-year government bond yields of 1 percentage point?.?.?.?might worsen budget balances on average by only between 0.1 per cent and 0.3 per cent of GDP annually in the following three years”.

在当时发布的《经济展望》(Economic Outlook)中，设在巴黎的经合组织表示，“就算10年期国债收益率持续上升1个百分点……预算平衡在接下来3年的年均恶化幅度也仅相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的0.1%至0.3%”。

But Ms Koc now argues that the wisdom of using fiscal measures as economic stimulus depends on an individual country’s budget position, and that it is “important to create strong fiscal roots in an economy while times are good”.

但现在科奇主张，利用财政措施作为经济刺激手段是否明智，要看具体国家的预算处境，而“在形势良好的时候，在经济中建立强劲的财政根基很重要”。

The total stock of OECD countries’ sovereign debt has increased from $25tn in 2008 to more than $45tn this year. Debt to GDP ratios across the OECD averaged 73 per cent last year, and its members are set to borrow 10.5tn pounds from the markets this year.

今年，经合组织成员国主权债务的总存量达到45万亿美元以上，远高于2008年的25万亿美元。去年经合组织成员国的债务与GDP之比平均达到73%，而今年这些成员国将要从市场借入10.5万亿英镑。

Because much of the debt raised in the aftermath of the financial crisis is set to mature in the coming years, developed nations will have to refinance 40 per cent of their total debt stock in the next three years, the OECD said.

经合组织表示，由于在金融危机过后借入的很大一部分债务将在未来几年到期，发达国家需要在接下来3年对40%的存量债务进行再融资。