马克龙是特朗普的“布莱尔”吗？

Ahead of Donald Trump’s decision to launch strikes against Syria’s chemical-weapons program, the U.S. president signaled a desire to leave Syria altogether. His advisers, based on their public pronouncements advocating leaving in place the 2,000 American troops there, likely tried to convince him otherwise. But then another, unexpected source claimed credit for changing his mind—the president of France.

唐纳德.特朗普决定对叙利亚化学武器项目发动攻击前，表明打算从叙利亚完全撤军。他的参谋可能想劝他别撤，他们公开表示支持留下2000美国士兵。可改变特朗普主意要归功于另一位未曾料到的人——法国总统。

“Ten days ago, President Trump said the U.S. should withdrawal from Syria. We convinced him it was necessary to stay,” Macron said in a televised interview. “We also persuaded him that we needed to limit the strikes to chemical weapons [sites], after things got a little carried away over tweets.”

“十天前，总统特朗普说，美国应该从叙利亚撤军。我们让他相信有必要留下来。”马克龙在电视访谈中说。“我们还劝说他把打击限制在化学武器上，此前推文中有点跑偏。”

It’s unusual to hear a claim that U.S. war policy is being made in France. But then again, so is Macron and Trump’s relationship. Despite being diametrically opposed on a number of policy fronts, the two leaders have managed to forge something of a friendship over the past year.

美国的战争政策在法国做出，这听来不同寻常。但马克龙和特朗普的关系也同样不一般。尽管在一些政策领域观点截然相反，两位领导人在过去一年中设法缔造了某种友谊。

In the immediate aftermath of the latest alleged chemical-weapons attack in Syria, it was Macron who was on the phone with Trump coordinating “a strong, joint response” to what they both considered to be an unacceptable crime by Assad.

叙利亚被控发生最新一次化武袭击，立马给特朗普通电话的是马克龙，二人对双方都认为阿萨德犯下不可接受的罪行，并对此进行协调，做出“强烈的共同反应”。

Less than a week later, both the U.S. and France ordered military strikes on three Syrian government targets, including a research center and two chemical-weapons storage facilities (the U.K., whose Prime Minister Theresa May discussed the matter with Trump a full two days after Macron did, also participated in the strike).

不到一周后，美国和法国下令对三个叙利亚政府目标进行打击，包括一所研究中心和两个化学武器储存点。英国也参加了打击，但英国首相特蕾莎.梅在马克龙通话整整两天后才和特朗普讨论了此事。

The White House maintains that the “U.S. mission [in Syria] has not changed”—it remains fighting the last remnants of ISIS. Monday night, Macron tried to resolve the seeming disconnect, saying that France, too, holds this position, and that other than the strikes on Assad’s chemical-weapons program, the military engagement “is against [ISIS] and will finish the day the war on [ISIS] has been completed.”

白宫主张，“美国的使命没有发生变化”，依然在叙利亚扫清伊斯兰国残部。上周一晚，马克龙尝试解决表面上的脱节，表示法国也持这一立场，除了对阿萨德的化武项目进行打击外，军事参与“主要是打击伊斯兰国，伊斯兰国被扫清后就会结束任务。”

The back-and-forth was emblematic of the broader relationship between Macron and Trump, who seem to stand shoulder to shoulder while only occasionally seeing eye to eye. And it stands out among Trump’s other relationships with European leaders, who have chided him over issues from values to intelligence leaks.

有来有回，代表了马克龙和特朗普关系深厚，两人肩并肩，有时还一拍即合。这与特朗普和其他欧洲领导人迥然不同，后者在价值观和情报泄露等诸多事宜上斥责他。

“The friendship between our two nations and ourselves, I might add, is unbreakable,” Trump said in a joint press conference with Macron during his visit to Paris last July. It was a sentiment Macron seemed to share. “Nothing will ever separate us,” he said during the visit.

“我要说，两国和我们之间的友谊牢不可破，”特朗普去年七月访法时与马克龙联合出席新闻发布会时说。这也表达了马克龙的情感。“没有什么能把我俩分开，”他当时说。

And the two leaders’ close coordination on controversial matters of war—even in the face of skepticism from their publics—brings to mind another storied trans-Atlantic relationship, that of former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair and U.S. President George W. Bush, who were once dubbed “the odd couple.”

两国领导人在富有争议的战争问题上亦步亦趋，即便面对公众的质疑，这让人想起大西洋两岸另一段佳话，英国前首相托尼.布莱尔和美国总统乔治.布什，两人曾被说成“古怪的一对搭档”。

Like Blair, Macron is known for his liberally minded youthful energy and his desire to transcend a left-right divide. The former premier’s spokesman, Alastair Campbell, noted the resemblance in January, dubbing Macron the “real heir to Tony Blair.”

同布莱尔一样，马克龙秉持自由主义立场，青春活力，愿意超越左右界限。布莱尔做首相时的发言人阿拉斯塔尔.坎贝尔1月份提到了这一类比，将马克龙说成“托尼.布莱尔的真正继承人？”

And Macron’s facilitation of Trump’s impulse to intervene against Assad—publicly blaming the Syrian regime for chemical attacks even as other allies hesitated to do so—also brings to mind how Blair helped Bush marshal international support for the Iraq war. A recent British government inquiry into the background of that war called the Blair-Bush relationship a “determining factor” in shaping it.

马克龙借助特朗普的感情用事干涉阿萨德，他公开谴责叙利亚政权发动化武袭击，虽然其他盟友都有所犹豫，这也让人想到布莱尔帮助小布什获得伊拉克战争的国际支持。英国政府最近对那场战争背景的调查称，布拉尔和小布什的关系是塑造战争的“决定性因素”。

Macron-Trump is not quite the second coming of the Blair-Bush bromance. The Iraq War was a far larger undertaking, and remains that way, than anything the United States or its allies have done in Syria.

马克龙-特朗普并非布莱尔-小布什哥俩好的翻版。相比美国和其盟友在叙利亚的行动，伊拉克战争规模要大得多，现在依然如此。

“A night of limited cruise-missile strikes in Syria is an order of a magnitude different than committing tens of thousands of troops to an invasion, regime-change operation, and subsequent counter-insurgency,” Jacob Parakilas, the deputy head of the U.S. and Americas project at Chatham House, told me, adding that there’s also the matter of how Blair and Macron presented their relationships to the president in public. “I don’t think Blair ever claimed to have ‘convinced’ Bush to invade Iraq. He offered basically uncritical support throughout.”

“在叙利亚进行一晚上有限度的巡航导弹袭击其烈度与派遣数万名士兵入侵并颠覆政权并导致镇压，这差了一个数量级，”英国查塔姆研究所美国项目副主任雅各布.帕拉吉拉斯对我说。他说，还有布莱尔和马克龙在公开场合如何表述与总统关系的问题。“我认为布莱尔从没说过让小布什‘相信’要入侵伊拉克，从始到终他只是不加批评地加以支持。”

But Blair did help make the case for the war in Iraq to Americans and others who might have been skeptical of the Bush administration’s plans. And it was this role—and the subsequent chaos in post-Saddam Iraq—that made Blair, once of the U.K.’s most popular politicians, one of its most reviled. Given the limited nature of the most recent Syria action, it seems unlikely Macron will suffer the same fate.

可对于那些对布什政府的计划有所疑虑的美国人和其他国家人民而言，布莱尔的确促成了伊拉克战争。正是这一角色以及后萨达姆时代伊拉克的混乱让布莱尔成为众矢之的，他曾经是英国最受欢迎的政客。考虑到叙利亚行动规模有限，马克龙不太可能有相同的遭遇。

But he has been criticized by the far-right (represented by Marine Le Pen) and the far-left (represented by Jean-Luc Melenchon) in France, both of whom oppose military action in Syria. Moreover, Trump’s approval rating in France stands at just 14 percent—which points to the possibility that there may ultimately a domestic political cost to Macron of standing by Trump.

但他一直遭到玛丽娜.勒庞代表的极右翼和让-卢克.梅朗雄代表的极左翼的双重批评，他们都反对在叙利亚展开军事行动。此外，特朗普在法国的支持率只有14%，马克龙和特朗普站在一边，可能最终在国内承受政治代价。

Perhaps a year ago, a relationship like this between Trump and any European ally looked unlikely. After all, the “America First” president had called into question his support for NATO, which he at one point determined to be “obsolete.”

可能一年前，特朗普和任何欧洲盟友建立关系都是不可能的。毕竟主张“美国优先”的总统对支持北约都表示异议，一度认为北约“过时了”。

When Trump decided that the U.S. would strike Syria over its use chemical weapons in April 2017, he did so unilaterally. Macron had not yet won the French presidency.

2017年4月，特朗普决定因使用化武而打击叙利亚时，他单边采取了行动。马克龙当时还没有当选法国总统。

Even after Macron ascended to the elysee in May 2017, his relationship to his American counterpart started out stiffly, with divergent policy goals and a series of awkward handshakes.

即便2017年5月，马克龙入住爱丽舍宫后，他与美国总统最初的关系也很僵，战略目标分歧很大，多次握手令人尴尬。

But somewhere between rebuking Trump’s decision to pull the U.S. out of the Paris climate accord and hosting him for a massive military parade on Bastille Day, Macron managed to charm the American president.

可在斥责特朗普决定退出巴黎协定和招待他观看法国国庆阅兵这段时间内，马克龙设法迷住了美国总统。

And now, Macron isn’t just the world leader Trump has chosen to host for his first formal state visit as president next week—he’s also, admittedly by his own account, someone Trump turns to for advice in a crisis, which is not necessarily something an alliance-skeptical president would be expected to do.

现在，马克龙不仅是特朗普接纳的第一个对美国国事访问的外国领导人，据马克龙自己说，他也是特朗普遇到危机时去征求意见的人，一个不相信结盟的总统这么做可并非常事。

The United States is the dominant global power. Trump’s popularity in France (or for that matter in the U.S.) notwithstanding, he is still president of the United States. And as such, it is in Macron’s interests cultivate him if Macron wants to keep the ability to convince Trump how America should act in the world.

美国是全球头号强国。尽管特朗普在法国人气不高，在美国也不怎么样，可他仍是美国总统。同样，如果马克龙想拥有摆布特朗普的能力，告诉他美国在世界上该如何作为，与他搞好关系才符合马克龙的利益。