经济学人下载:全球经济,又是如履薄冰的一年

Economic policymakers can’t make peace between Arab rulers and their people or stabilise Japan’s nuclear reactors, but they can minimise the collateral damage. The greatest burden is on the Bank of Japan. Its efforts to cure deflation over the past 15 years have too often been timid. That could not be said of its rapid response to the tsunami. It poured cash into the banking system in a pre-emptive strike against panic hoarding. And it expanded its purchases of government and corporate debt and equities. Still more “quantitative easing” can keep bond yields from rising as the government borrows for reconstruction, and help the fight against deflation.

经济决策者不能在阿拉伯统治者和人民之间调停，也无法使日本的核反应堆趋于稳定，但是他们可以让造成的附带性破坏最小化。最大的重任落在日本银行肩上。日本银行过去15年抑制通胀力度不足的时候太多，但这却不能用来形容它对海啸的迅速应对上。为了避免恐慌性积聚钱财，日本银行先发制人，向银行系统注入大量现金，还加大购买政府和公司的债务和股本的力度。还有更多的“量化宽松”政策阻止债券收益随着政府借债用于重建而上涨，并能抵挡通货紧缩。

What should the rest of the world do? In a show of sympathy the G7 joined the Bank of Japan in selling the yen after it spiked dramatically. Such actions should be limited, however. Japan is too dependent on exports and its priority should be stimulating domestic demand and ending deflation, not cheapening the yen. A better way for outsiders to help is to ensure that concerns over radiation in Japanese products do not become an excuse for protectionism.

世界其他地方需要如何应对？在日元大幅升值之后，七国集团加入了日本银行抛售日元的行列，以示同情。但是，这种行动应该是有限的。日本过于依赖出口，它的首选应当是刺激国内需求，终结通货紧缩，而非使日元贬值。外界帮助日本的一个更好方式是确保对日本产品辐射的担心不会演变成保护主义的借口。

Avoidable aftershocks可以避免的余震

Other central banks face a more complicated task. Even as higher oil prices and hobbled Japanese production reduce growth they add to mounting inflation risks (Britain is now fretting over inflation of 4.4%). But most rich-world economies have ample economic slack, and in several countries fiscal tightening will tug at recovery. Britain’s coalition government has reaffirmed its commitment to austerity with this week’s budget (see article), and America has begun to cut spending. Both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve should resist the temptation to tighten soon.

其他国家的中央银行面临更加复杂的任务。在因油价上涨和日本生产受创而降低增速的同时，通胀风险还会进一步增加（英国现在对4.4%的通胀率备感苦恼）。但是，大多数富裕经济体有充足的经济松弛空间，而几个国家会在复苏时还会严格收紧财政。英国的联合政府通过本周的预算重申了其紧缩政策的立场，美国也已开始削减开支。无论是英格兰银行还是美联储，都应该抵御马上收紧的诱惑。

The European Central Bank seems intent on raising interest rates next month. That would be a mistake. In the euro zone underlying inflation and wage growth are both subdued and inflation expectations are under control. By raising rates the ECB would strengthen the euro and frustrate the efforts of countries like Greece, Ireland and—the next in line for bailing out—Portugal to grow their way out of their debts.

欧洲央行似乎决意在4月份提高利率。这将是个错误。在欧元区，潜在的通货膨胀和工资增加都处于受抑状态，通胀预期也在管控之下。欧洲央行提高利率会强化欧元，还会挫伤像希腊、爱尔兰和等着救助的葡萄牙这些国家促进经济增长、摆脱债务危机的努力。

There is only so much economic policymakers can do about crises that spring from war or nature. In this case, the priority should be not making matters worse.

在由战争或自然引发的危机面前，经济决策者可做的事情很多。此时，首要的应是不能恶化事态。