经济学人下载:欧洲的债务援助行动,远未解决

The original plan in May 2010 was conceived on the notion that Greece faced an acute but temporary funding problem. A liquidity issue could be addressed by using official lending from the euro area and the IMF of  110 billion ($157 billion) to replace funding from the markets, which were by then demanding punitive rates. The country would meanwhile take drastic steps to reduce its deficit. That would rebuild investor confidence and allow Greece to return to the bond markets, partially in 2012 and completely by mid-2013.

2010年5月的原计划是基于这样的设想：希腊面临的是一场严重但短暂的资金问题。流动性问题可以通过来自欧元区和世界货币基金组织的1110亿英镑（1570亿美元）的官方借贷来解决，这样就无需进行市场融资（在当时要求以惩罚性利率计算）。同时希腊可以采取严厉的措施来减少赤字。这将重塑投资者信心，并使得希腊于2012年部分地回归债券市场，最终于2013年中期完全回归。

That schedule now looks hideously overoptimistic. Investors have become even more loth to provide long-term funding: ten-year bond yields now exceed 15%, compared with a peak of 12.3% a year ago. This reflects, in part, an appreciation that Greece’s fiscal woes are even graver than they first appeared. The starting-point in 2009 for both debt and the deficit turned out to be worse than realised; tax revenues have proved disappointing as austerity measures have undermined growth. As a result Greek government debt at the end of last year was close to 145% of GDP and the deficit for 2010 was a colossal 10.5% of GDP, well above the original target of 8.1%.

这个时间表现在看起来过分乐观了。投资者已变得更不愿提供长期融资：10年期债券收益率现在超过了15%,而一年前最高才不过12.3%。这部分反映出，人们认为希腊财政危机甚至比起初看起来更加严重。2009年，债务和赤字问题只是个开始，现在问题似乎变得比人们当初认为的更加严重；由于紧缩措施阻碍了经济增长，税收收入令人失望。因而，去年底希腊政府债务接近了GDP的145%，2010年的赤字则高达GDP的10.5%,远高于原先8.1%的目标。

Even the most cohesive and determined government would be hard-pressed to get out of this kind of fiscal mess. Instead, the Socialist government of George Papandreou is split over the prospect of yet more painful reforms. There is talk of installing EU officials at Greek ministries where the most foot-dragging has occurred. The hardest task will be pushing through a