经济学人下载:全球房价

Global house prices

全球房价

Mixed messages

混乱的信息

America surges, much of Europe sinks

美国房价上涨，欧洲房价下跌

Aug 31st 2013 |From the print edition

HOUSING markets are prone to boom-and-bust cycles, with prices overshooting then undershooting sustainable levels. To work out whether they are over- or undervalued, The Economist uses two gauges. One assesses affordability by comparing prices with disposable income. The other considers the case for investing in housing by comparing prices with rents. If these ratios are higher than their historical averages (since the mid-1970s) property is overvalued; if they are lower it is undervalued. On this basis, Canada’s house prices are bubbly whereas Japan’s are undeservedly flat (see table).

房地产市场容易在可持续水平上下波动从而形成涨跌周期。为了衡量房价被高估还是低估，经济学人采用了两种测量方法。第一种是比较可支配收入与房价水平，第二种是考虑租金与房价的关系。如果这些比率高于自70年代中期以来的历史平均值，那么房地产市场就被高估了。如果低于历史水平，那么房地产市场被低估了。基于此，加拿大的房价有泡沫，而日本的房价则出奇的稳定。（见表）

America’s formerly stricken market has rebounded: house prices have risen by 12.1% over the past year. But the recovery still appears to be sound, since prices remain undervalued against income. A sharp rise in mortgage rates since May, on signs that the Federal Reserve will shortly slow the pace of asset purchases, may in any case temper the boom.

美国曾经低迷的市场有所起色：过去一年房价上涨了12.1%。但是恢复似乎有点过于平静，因为与收入挂钩的话，房价明显过低。自从五月以来的抵押贷款利率激增，这标志着美联储短期内将会放缓房地产购买节奏，这可能放缓经济繁荣的步伐。

Britain’s recovery is built on shakier foundations. House-price growth has picked up in recent months to 3.9% and is likely to accelerate further, even though valuations are still overstretched. The market is being buoyed through a subsidy scheme that lowers funding costs for mortgage lenders and through special help for low-deposit borrowers. 

英国的复苏建立在极不稳定的基础上。近几个月房价已增长了3.9%，尽管估价仍就过高，但是未来还有加速增长的趋势。房地产市场的好转由补贴政策支撑。补贴政策降低抵押贷款者的花费，对低收入者有特殊帮助方法。

Despite favourable valuations, Japanese house prices continue to fall, though at a modest 2.2%. The worst-performing markets are in the euro area, notably in southern Europe (Spanish prices are down by 8.2% in the past year) but also in some northern countries (Dutch prices have fallen by 8.5%). The French market is also depressed. Valuations remain stretched in Spain even though house prices have fallen by 30% since early 2008. But the recent pick-up in the Irish market looks sustainable following a 49% price crash.

尽管估价较好，但是日本的房价持续下落，最新数据显示下降了2.2%。表现最差的市场在欧洲，最差的在南欧（西班牙房价在过去一年中下降了8.2%）。但是在北欧也有表现很差的国家（荷兰的房价下降了8.5%）。法国的房地产市场也很低迷。尽管自2008年以来西班牙的房价已经下降了30%，但是其估价仍就过高。然而最近数据显示，爱尔兰房地产市场在房价暴跌49%以后看起来稳定了不少。

Brighter signs gleam elsewhere, especially in Germany, which avoided the pre-crisis frenzy. Prices there have risen in the past year by 5.1%, which should bolster domestic demand and help support the economic recovery in the euro zone.

其他地方则有好消息，尤其是在德国，德国避开了危机前的房产狂热。在过去的一年里，德国房价上涨了5.1%，扩大了国内需求并有利于欧元区的经济复苏。