经济学人下载:全球房价 喜忧掺杂

Finance and economics
财经商业

Global house prices
全球房价

Mixed messages
喜忧掺杂

America surges, much of Europe sinks
美国突破，欧洲大部分沦陷

HOUSING markets are prone to boom-and-bust cycles, with prices overshooting then undershooting sustainable levels.
房屋市场倾向于陷入价格怪圈，房价急速上升然后跌至谷底。

To work out whether they are over- or undervalued,The Economist uses two gauges.
为了解决房价与价值不符这一问题，经济学人用了2种计量方式。

One assesses affordability by comparing prices with disposable income.
一种可行的方式是比较可支配收入与房价水平。

The other considers the case for investing in housing by comparing prices with rents.
另一种定价方法考虑到了租金与房价的关系。

If these ratios are higher than their historical averages property is overvalued; if they are lower it is undervalued.
如果这些比率高于历史平均那么房价就过高，反之则过低。

On this basis, Canada’s house prices are bubbly whereas Japan’s are undeservedly flat.
通过这一方法可以看出，加拿大出现房产泡沫，而日本的房价则奇怪地维持着平稳。

America’s formerly stricken market has rebounded: house prices have risen by 12.1% over the past year.
而之前美国低迷的市场也有了回暖，房屋价格较前一年上升了12.1%。

But the recovery still appears to be sound, since prices remain undervalued against income.
但是这回暖仅仅是“似乎”，事实上根据收入水平，房价应更高。

A sharp rise in mortgage rates since May, on signs that the Federal Reserve will shortly slow the pace of asset purchases, may in any case temper the boom.
五月份以来，抵押率迅速上升，这标志着美联储将会立刻放缓资产购买的步伐。或许无论如何都要促使市场繁荣。

Britain’s recovery is built on shakier foundations.
英国市场的恢复建立在极不稳固的基础上。

House-price growth has picked up in recent months to 3.9% and is likely to accelerate further, even though valuations are still overstretched.
最近几月，房价上升3.9%，而且看上去这一上涨势头在未来会更加猛烈，尽管股价仍旧过高。

The market is being buoyed through a subsidy scheme that lowers funding costs for mortgage lenders and through special help for low-deposit borrowers.
房屋市场的好转由补贴政策支撑着。该政策为抵押放贷者降低融资成本，并且通过特殊方法帮助低收入借款人。

Despite favourable valuations, Japanese house prices continue to fall, though at a modest 2.2%.
尽管房价处于较好的数值区间，日本房价也在持续下落，最新数据显示已下降了2.2%。

The worst-performing markets are in the euro area, notably in southern Europe but also in some northern countries.
欧洲市场表现最差尤其是南欧和部分北欧国家同时，

The French market is also depressed.
法国市场也令人失望。

Valuations remain stretched in Spain even though house prices have fallen by 30% since early 2008.
尽管从2008年以来西班牙房价已下跌了30%，但其定价仍旧过高。

But the recent pick-up in the Irish market looks sustainable following a 49% price crash.
最近数据显示，在暴跌了49%以后，爱尔兰的房屋市场还能够可持续发展。

Brighter signs gleam elsewhere, especially in Germany, which avoided the pre-crisis frenzy.
关于房市的好消息在其他地方有些许听闻，特别是德国。这个国家避开了之前的危机。

Prices there have risen in the past year by 5.1%, which should bolster domestic demand and help support the economic recovery in the euro zone.
在过去的一年里价格上涨5.1%，这能扩大国内需求并有利于欧洲地区经济恢复。