经济学人下载:大型飞机 空中客车公司的大赌注

Business
商业报道

Very large planes
大型飞机

Airbus's big bet
空中客车公司的大赌注

Commercially, the A380 super-jumbo will struggle to reach cruising altitude
在商业化的过程中，超级巨无霸客机A380将努力达到巡航高度

THE new venue forDubai's international air show, which opened on November 17th, is yet another testament to the ambitions of the tiny Gulf state.
11月17日，迪拜国际航展将在新的场地开幕，这又是一个小海湾国家的野心的证明。

Al Maktoum airport,when fully operational in 2027, will handle160mpassengers a year on five runways.
阿勒马克图姆机场，在2027年完全投入运营时，在它的5个跑道上将承载游客1.6亿人次。

And it will operate in tandem withDubai's older airport, which is closer to its centre and currently welcomes60mtravellers a year.
而且它会与更接近中心且每年6000万游客的迪拜的旧机场同时运行。

The punt on continued growth in demand is also reflected in the big orders for new planes that the region's airlines announced at this week's show.
该地区的航空公司在本周的展会上宣布的大订单显示，新飞机的需求依然在持续稳定增长。

Emirates,Dubai's flag-carrier, led the way by ordering 150 of the 777X, a forthcoming revamp of what is currently Boeing's best-selling long-haul plane.
迪拜的标志载体酋长国，一马当先的订购150架目前最畅销的波音长途飞机777X ，会领导一场即将到来的变革。

The deal is worth 76 billion at list prices.
这笔交易的标价为76亿美元。

Boeing also landed orders for 75 more 777Xs from the two other fast-growing superconnectors in the Gulf region, Qatar Airways andAbu Dhabi's Etihad.
波音公司也将从其他两个快速增长的超级连接的公司卡塔尔航空公司和阿布扎比的阿提哈德取回更多777Xs的海湾地区的订单。

Boeing's archrival, Airbus, won Emirates' endorsement of another big bet in aviation.
波音公司的主要竞争对手，空中客车公司获得阿联酋航空代言的另一大赌注。

The airline ordered 50 more of the A380, a super-jumbo launched in2007 inthe hope that carriers would want a plane even bigger than Boeing's ageing 747.
该航空公司订购了多于50架的A380，A380是在2007年推出的超级巨无霸飞机，为满足运营商想要比老化的波音747更大的飞机的想法 。

Orders for the giants have stalled in recent years, however, even as demand for smaller jetliners has hit new highs.
巨头订单已经在近几年停滞不前，然而，实际上小型客机的需求已经创下新高。

In 2011 and 2012 there were just over 50 orders for the biggest jets, mostly A380s, and a trickle for Boeing's latest version of its jumbo.
在2011年和2012年刚刚超过50最大的喷气机的订单，其中大部分是A380飞机，和波音公司的最新版本巨无霸，这与期望相比只是涓涓细流。

Until now there had been no firm orders this year.
到现在为止今年一直没有确定的订单。

Emirates has38 A380s in service and is seeking 100 more, accounting for.
到目前为止阿联酋航空拥有38架A380飞机在使用中，并希望达到100架以上，占整个市场的一半。

Emirates' enthusiasm aside, views on the A380's prospects are divided.
抛开阿联酋的热情不谈，对于A380的前景也存在意见分歧。

Some analysts see it as suitable for only a few airlines on a handful of routes.
一些分析师认为它只适用于少数航空公司的极少数的航线上。

Others see it as the best solution to the expected huge increase in passengers flying between the most congested hubs.
而另一些人将它作为解决预计出现的乘客人数大幅增加而导致飞行拥挤的最佳解决方案。

Boeing, whose 777X will seat 350-400, not surprisingly sides with the doubters, reckoning there will be demand for just 700 or so planes with 400-plus seats in the next two decades; Airbus reckons on double that amount.
波音公司的777X将容纳350-400人，反对者们并不惊讶于这一点，波音公司还推算在未来的二十年中对于400座位以上的飞机会有700架左右的需求，而空中客车的推算数字是这个两倍。

The most pessimistic pundits maintain that the European firm will sell no more than 300 of its behemoth. Orders for the 747 are unlikely to revive.
不过最悲观的专家们认为，欧洲公司将出售不超过300个这样的庞然大物，甚至连747的订单数量都不会复苏。

The doubters say the main benefit of the A380's size, its lower cost per passenger-mile, is overstated: passengers want frequent departures at main hubs, and direct flights between smaller airports.
反对者说，因A380的尺寸更使每英里运载每名乘客的成本降低，是被夸大了：乘客想要频繁在主枢纽出发或降落，在较小的机场之间乘直飞航班。

Both of these require large fleets of midsized planes, not small fleets of giant ones.
这两者都需要大型车队的中型飞机，而不是小型车队的巨型飞机。

Perhaps only the Gulf's three superconnectors, linking the most popular destinations in Europe andAsiavia their home hubs, will want big fleets of A380s.
也许只有在海湾的三个超级连接者可以通过他们的家庭集线器，将欧洲和亚洲最热门的目的地连接起来需要架A380的大船队。

Lufthansa, Air France and British Airways have already ordered as many as they will need for the foreseeable future, reckons Rob Morris of Ascend, a consultancy.
德国汉莎航空公司，法国航空公司和英国航空公司已经为可预见的将来订购了他们认为足够多的飞机，罗布·莫里斯的顾问这样说。

They will fly them from airports with scarce take-off slots, on a few busy routes for which departure times are restricted by the need to arrive at a reasonable hour.
他们将在极少起飞的插槽机场起飞他们的飞机，在一些繁忙的航线上出发时间被限制在合理的时间内。

Emirates could have a further reason to be keen on buying so many A380s.
阿联酋热衷于购买这么多架A380的可能还有一个更深层的原因。

Andrew Charlton of Aviation Advocacy, another consultancy, thinks that its big order may give Emirates influence over the design of future Airbus planes, such as its forthcoming A350-1000, a 369-seat rival to the 777X.
另一家咨询公司，航空宣传的安德鲁·查尔顿认为，大订单可能在未来的空中客车飞机的设计上产生影响力，如即将试飞的777X的对手A350-1000，拥有369个座位。

Emirates wants its range to be even longer than is currently planned, since it is a long way fromDubaitoAmerica. It would also like just a few more seats.
阿联酋希望其影响时间比目前的规划更长，因为从迪拜到美国还有一个很长的路要走。就好像还要更多的席位一样。

Accusations that the A380 is a niche product rankle with Mark Lapidus, boss of Doric Lease Corp, an aircraft-leasing firm which has 22 of the super-jumbos and plans to order 20 more.
多利安的飞机租赁公司订购了22架超级客机，并计划再订购20架，然而他们的老板马克·拉皮德斯却提出指责，认为A380是一种利基产品。

He insists that if worldwide air travel keeps growing by 5% a year, as several forecasters expect, and if main hubs get ever more congested and fuel stays dear, airlines will surely come to see the wisdom of choosing the biggest plane their money can buy.
他坚持认为，如果像一些预言家预计的那样，全球航空旅行保持每年5％的增长，如果主枢纽依然有如此多的游客，而燃油保持在让人满意的水平，航空公司一定会见到他们的钱能买到的最大选择的智慧。

Airbus is sticking to its target of breaking even in 2015 on a plane thought to have cost it 15 billion to develop; so far this looks optimistic.
空中客车公司坚持认为其目标到目前为止是乐观的，即使要在2015年打破已花费15亿美元的发展。

But it is not impossible that it will turn a profit one day.
但它有一天会变成一个巨大利益也并非不可能。

Sandy Morris of Jefferies, a bank, points out that the peak year for orders of the 747 came nearly 25 years after it first took to the skies.
据银行家莫里斯杰弗里斯指出， 747的订单高峰年是距其第一次发射后25年。

Airbus's A330 took 15 years to hit the heights and had no orders in 1994, six years after its launch.
空中客车公司的A330飞机也花费了15年到达高峰，并于6年后，也就是1994年没有推出订单。

But until an airline other than Emirates starts to order the A380 insignificant quantities it will be hard to make the case that it is a soaring success.
但直到除阿联酋以外的航空公司开始批量订购A380飞机，虽然这很难，它才可称得上是一飞冲天的成功。