经济学人下载:莫迪是印度的救星还是克星?

Leaders
社论

India
印度

Would Modi save India or wreck it?
莫迪是印度的救星还是克星？

India's Muslims have reason to fear Narendra Modi. He should reach out to them.
莫迪令印度的穆斯林教徒害怕也是情有可原的，他应该与他们亲近些。

EVEN five years ago it would have been inconceivable; but, with a general election due by next May, Narendra Modi is the front-runner to become India's next prime minister.
甚至5年前，那还无法想象；但值此大选将于明年五月份结束之际，莫迪成为最有可能担任印度下一届首相之人。

The long-serving chief minister of Gujarat has always had a core of passionate supporters for his mix of economic efficiency and hardline Hindu nationalism, and because he gets things done, an increasing number of voters see him as the saviour of India's struggling economy.
长期担任古吉拉特邦的首席部长有几个核心支持者，赞成他的整体经济效益以及加固印度的民族主义，这也是因为他干了些实事，所以越来越多的选民认为他可以拯救印度惨淡的经济。

But Indian politics has no more divisive figure.
但是此人在印度政坛中颇受争议。

A terrible blot hangs over his reputation since an orgy of violence in his state in 2002 left over 1,000 dead, most of them Muslims.
2002年在他管辖的地方暴力事件猖狂，造成1000人死亡，而其中大多数人是穆斯林人，他因此声名狼藉。

Do his qualities outweigh that huge stain?
那么他的能力能否盖过他这一巨大政治上污点呢？

Modi madness
莫迪之疯狂

If Mr Modi looks like the country's leader-in-waiting, that is a measure of the state of the ruling party.
如果莫迪看起来像是印度的候选领导，那便是衡量执政党状况的一种方式。

Congress has been in power since 2004 and long ago lost its vim.
国会自2004年开始掌权，很早就失去了活力。

India's once-scintillating growth rate has fallen by half to 5%.
印度曾经较高的增长率也跌了一半至2.5%。

With a need to find new jobs for 10m Indians joining the workforce each year, such sluggish growth brings a terrible human cost.
每年100万的印度人亟需找到新工作，但如此萧条的经济增长率使人力成本惨不忍睹。

It is this backdrop that makes Congress's drift and venality look so dangerous.
正是在这样的背景下，国会的人浮于事以及唯利是图是十分危险。

The 81-year-old prime minister, Manmohan Singh, once a reformer, is serving out his days as a Gandhi family retainer.
81岁的总理，曼莫汉·辛格曾经也是一位改革家，如今作为甘地家族的保护者，正不断为此服务直至其任期满为止。

Rahul Gandhi might end up as Congress's next candidate for prime minister; yet the princeling seems neither to want the job nor to be up to doing it.
拉胡尔·甘地可能最后会成为国会下一届的总理候选人；然而这位王子看起来既不想要这份工作也不能胜任。

In four of the five state elections announced this week Congress was deservedly walloped.
本周，5个邦大选中就有4个宣布国会理应备受指责。

One encouraging sign was the emergence of an anti-corruption movement in Delhi.
但在新德里出现的反腐运动现象鼓舞人心。

The main beneficiary of this passion for change, however, is Mr Modi.
这次人们钟情于改变的热情高涨主要受益者是莫迪。

Not only is he the prime-ministerial candidate for the Hindu, centre-right Bharatiya Janata Party but, to an unusual degree for an Indian party, he is the public face of its campaign.
他不但成为了印度教里中右翼印度人民党的总理候选人，很大程度上，他也代表着这印度政党整个阵营的形象。

His visibility helps account for its success this week in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi.
他经常出现在公众视野中，这倒也使得他本周在拉贾斯坦邦、中央邦、恰蒂斯加尔邦以及新德里大获成功。

A brilliant orator, the 63-year-old attracts huge crowds around the country.
一位才能出众的63岁演说家，吸引了全国大批拥护者。

Whereas Indian politicians usually pay people to attend their rallies, Mr Modi charges an entrance fee—which is both a sign of the enthusiasm he arouses and a way of making supporters feel they belong to a powerful movement.
鉴于印度的政治家们通常都花钱让百姓参加他们的集会，莫迪反而收取入会费——这也表明他能唤起民众的热情以及使支持者感觉归属于这一强大运动中。

Many of India's business titans are besotted with him. Anil Ambani of Reliance Group calls him “the lord of men, a leader among leaders and a king among kings”.
许多商业大亨十分信赖他。信实集团的安尼尔·安巴尼称他为“人们的主，领袖中的领袖，王中之王”。

Investors think that he would fire up the economy. Bright young acolytes are giving up well-paid jobs to join his campaign.
投资家们认为他可以带动经济的增长。如今聪明年轻的党羽正放弃高薪的工作加入到他的阵营。

Much about Mr Modi appeals to this newspaper too.
本报也对于他的诸多事情十分感兴趣。

He is a man of action and an outspoken outsider in a political system stuffed with cronies.
他富有执行力，在充满结党营私的政治体系中依旧可以是直言不讳的旁观者。

In contrast with the pampered Mr Gandhi, great-grandson of Jawaharlal Nehru and son of Sonia Gandhi, Congress's behind-the-scenes boss, Mr Modi comes from a low caste and a modest background as a tea-seller; his success is down to drive and ambition.
与国会的幕后老板—养尊处优惯了的甘地相反，莫迪只是社会地位低、背景谦卑的茶商；他的成功归因于他的执行力与雄心壮志。

And in a system shot through with corruption, he seems pretty clean.
在充斥着腐败的体系中，他看上去还十分清廉。

Unusually for a serious contender to be prime minister, Mr Modi has a record from a dozen years as a chief minister.
对于严肃认真的莫迪而言，竞选担任总理，这不同寻常。莫迪曾有十来年的光阴担任首席部长。

Gujarat, a state of 60m people, has boomed as he has cut red tape and built roads and power lines.
一个拥有6千万人口的古吉拉特邦，自他删去那些繁文禄节，修建道路与电线后，欣欣向荣起来了。

Business has flourished and investment has poured in.
商业日益繁荣，外资也越来越多。

Gujarat accounts for just 5% of India's population, yet produces nearly a quarter of its exports.
古吉拉特邦仅占据印度人口的5%，然而却占据了印度出口量的将近四分之一。

State GDP has almost tripled under Mr Modi. Most social indicators have also improved.
在莫迪的管理下，该地区的GDP已经近乎翻了三番。大多数社会指标也得以提高了。

Even among Muslims, generally poorer than Hindus, the poverty rate has fallen from over 40% to 11% in two decades.
甚至在比印度教徒还更为贫困的穆斯林信徒中，贫穷比率也在近20年里从近40%下降到11%。

Mr Modi talks of replicating Gujarat's rapid growth, industrial development and improved infrastructure across India.
莫迪论及全印度可复制古吉拉特邦的快速增长，工业的发展与基础设施的改善。

That is refreshing. Politicians usually promise subsidies and largesse for special interests.
这想法很新鲜。因为政客们通常都只是承诺给补助金并且出于特殊利益才慷慨赠予。

This is the Modi who could save India and greatly benefit hundreds of millions of the world's poorest people.
正是莫迪可以挽救印度，数以千万的贫苦百姓能得以从水生火热中逃脱。

But his business supporters should face the fact that there is also a Modi who risks breaking India.
但是他的商业支持者也应意识到另一个事实—莫迪有可能会把印度给毁了。

Two serious questions hang over his character.
他性格方面有两处非议。

The first concerns his leadership.
首先关乎他的领导权。

He is an autocratic loner who is a poor delegator.
他是位独裁的孤家寡人，由自己全权代表。

That may work at state level, but not at national level—particularly when the BJP is likely to come to power only as part of a coalition.
在治理一个小邦上，这一问题还无关紧要，但是在管理国家上而言，这点就行不通了—尤其当印度人民党可能会作为联合的一部分而掌权。

A man who does not listen to the counsel of others is likely to make bad decisions, and if he were prime minister of India, and thus had his finger on the button of a potential nuclear conflict with Pakistan, Mr Modi would be faced with some very serious ones.
一位不听取他人建议的人可能会作出错误的决定，要是这样的莫迪做了印度的总理，势必会引发与巴基斯坦的核武器冲突，等待着他的还有一些此类非常严重的问题。

Beyond the pale?
不谋其政？

The second issue concerns the dreadful pogrom that happened on Mr Modi's watch.
第二点便是关系到莫迪保护范围内的地区出现了大屠杀事件。

No Indian court has found him guilty of any crime.
但印度法庭没有加以他任何罪名。

Yet it is hard to find an Indian who believes he does not share some responsibility for what happened—if only through neglect.
印度人民可不这么看，他们认为他多少应为此事付些责任—就从疏于职守来看。

He is banned from travel to America because of it.
他因此被禁止前往美国旅行。

In this context, Mr Modi's failure to show remorse, which goes down well with his Hindu chauvinist base, speaks volumes.
在这一背景下，莫迪没有表达一点懊悔之情，但在印度沙文主义的腹地他却是一番虔诚致歉。

The BJP is not the only party in India with a bloody history.
印度人民党并不是印度唯一一个用鲜血构筑的党派。

Congress turned a blind eye in 1984 as thousands of Sikhs were massacred in rage at the murder of Indira Gandhi by her Sikh bodyguards.
1984年因英迪拉·甘地险些被锡克教保镖谋杀而盛怒之下杀害了数以千计的锡克教教徒。

Yet Congress does not pursue a policy against Sikhs or any other ethnic or religious group, while Mr Modi has devoted much of his life to the pursuit of an extreme form of Hindu nationalism.
然而国会对此视若罔闻，也不出台对抗锡克教徒或者其他种族抑或宗教群体的政策，尽管莫迪花了他大半人生来追求使印度教成为国教这一极端方式。

His state party included no Muslim candidates in last year's election and he has refused to wear a Muslim skull-cap.
他的政党将去年大选的穆斯林候选人排除在外，他还拒绝戴穆斯林的无边便帽。

Other BJP leaders have worn them.
而其他印度人民党的领袖都戴上了。

He failed to condemn riots in Uttar Pradesh in September in which most of the victims were Muslim.
9月份对于主要以穆斯林教徒受害者居多的北方邦动乱，莫迪也未能对此次动乱加以谴责。

All sins of omission perhaps, but in India symbols like skull-caps matter—as Mr Modi well knows.
可能就算忽略所有的过错，然而对于诸如无边便帽这样的印度象征物也不可置之不理。

India's great strength is its inclusiveness. In the next five months Mr Modi needs to show that his idea of a pure India is no longer a wholly Hindu one.
印度的最大优势就是它的包容性。在接下来的5个月，莫迪需要表示下他想要的一个纯粹的印度并不再是唯独印度教的那个。

How he does that is his own affair, but an unambiguous public demonstration that he abhors violence and discrimination against Muslims is a bare minimum.
他怎么做那是他自己的事情，但是让他在公众场合明确表态讨厌反感以暴力、歧视对待穆斯林，这是最低的一项要求。

Otherwise, this newspaper will not back him.
否则，本报不会支持他。