经济学人下载:俄罗斯和西方 关系变得冷淡

Russia and the West
俄罗斯和西方

Cold climate
关系变得冷淡

As relations with Europe and America freeze over, Vladimir Putin looks to China
随着与欧美关系的冻结，弗拉基米尔·普京寄望于中国

WHEN Vladimir Putin plays host to Barack Obama and other world leaders at the G20 summit in St Petersburg next week, mutual resentment and dislike will be ill-concealed. The American president recently likened the Russian leader's body language to that of a “bored kid in the back of the classroom”. Mr Obama has cancelled a planned bilateral meeting in Moscow, choosing to visit Sweden instead.
在下周圣彼得堡举行的G20峰会上，弗拉基米尔·普金作为东道主接待奥巴马和其它国家的领导人，相互间的怨恨与厌恶将一触即发。美国总统最近将俄罗斯领导人的身体语言比作为 “坐在教室后面的无聊孩子”。奥巴马已经取消了原计划在莫斯科举行双边会谈，转而拜访瑞典。

The last straw was Russia's sheltering of Edward Snowden, a fugitive American spook. But the spat over that only crystallised something apparent since Mr Putin returned to the Kremlin in 2012: that the “reset”, launched with much fanfare in 2009, is not just dying, but dead.
对爱德华·斯诺登（一名逃亡的美国特工）而言，俄国的庇护是他最后一根救命稻草。但是，自从2012年普京回到克里姆林宫之后，那些争执只是将一些表面上的东西具体化罢了： 一改当初大肆宣扬的2009俄美关系“重启计划”正在死亡的说话，直接宣布该计划已死亡。

Dmitry Trenin of the Moscow Carnegie Centre, a think-tank, says the aborted summit marks the end of a 25-year cycle which started in Mikhail Gorbachev's glory days. Now the assumption of shared goals and values is over. Russia does not pretend to be moving towards the West. Rather than responding to Western criticism with irritated pleas for patience and understanding of national specifics, it simply ignores it.
莫斯科卡内基中心的智囊团的成员之一的，德米特里·特列宁说，峰会的夭折标志着从戈尔巴乔夫统治开始的辉煌岁月在25年后迎来了终结。现在假设的共同目标和价值观已经结束了。俄罗斯也不假装要向西方靠拢。俄罗斯仅仅是采取了忽略手段，而不是对西方国家要求耐心并理解国家具体事项的恼火请求的批判做出回应。

An earlier crisis came with the Russia-Georgia war in 2008. But Mr Obama revived the relationship, taking seriously Dmitry Medvedev, who stood in for Mr Putin for four years. People still argue about whether Mr Medvedev's affability was sincere, or a stunt.
一个早期危机随着2008年俄罗斯与鲁吉亚的战争打响。但奥巴马为这段关系重新注入生机，重视起为普京工作了四年的梅德韦杰夫。人们仍然在争论梅德韦杰夫是真心亲民，还是在秀演技。

The frost started biting over Libya. Russia backed a UN resolution to protect civilian lives, but felt duped when this resulted in the military overthrow of Muammar Qaddafi. The image of Gaddafi's “revolting slaughter—not just medieval but primeval”, stayed with Mr Putin. “No one should be allowed to employ the Libyan scenario in Syria,” he wrote in 2012.
两国之间的冰霜是在攻击利比亚时开始的。俄罗斯支持联合国以保护平民生命的决议，但当该决议导致军队推翻卡扎菲政权时，俄罗斯感到受骗。普金对卡扎菲的形象印象深刻“一场不亚于中世纪，可谓是来自原始社会的令人作呕的屠宰”，留与普京。“不允许任何人在叙利亚重演利比亚的情节”他在2012年写道。

Having convinced himself that the West was behind revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia, Mr Putin also blamed America for a wave of protests in Moscow in December 2011: proof positive that enemies were at the Kremlin's gate. Mr Putin responded by attacking charities and campaign groups who have funding from abroad, branding them “foreign agents”.
说服自己相信西方仍支持乌克兰和格鲁吉亚的革命，普京还指责美国2011年12月在墨西哥引发的抗议浪潮：敌人在克里姆林宫的大门是铁证如山。普京以攻击慈善机构和攻击拥有海外融资的竞选集团来作为回应，普京称他们为“外国特工”。

To shore up his core support, Mr Putin has filled Russia's ideological vacuum with nationalism and anti-Americanism. The main thesis is of two conflicting civilisations, with the West exemplifying economic decline, international recklessness and moral depravity. Russia must shield itself from this harmful influence and preserve its own traditional values, based on Orthodoxy and past glory. This was behind a recent law against gay “propaganda”, and a ban on officials from having bank accounts and property abroad.
为了加固他的核心论据，普京以民族主义和反美主义填补了俄罗斯意识形态的空白。主要论点是两个相互冲突的文明，随着越来越明显的西方经济衰退，出现了国际性质的鲁莽行为和道德沦丧。俄罗斯必须保护自身免受这种有害的影响，并保持自己的基于东正教和过去辉煌历史的传统价值观。这个声明是在最近的一条抵制同性恋的法律，和禁止官员在国外拥有银行账户和财产之后发布的。

With business, it is a different story. Even vehement anti-Westerners embrace big foreign companies as partners and investors (they also use them as lobbyists for their political interests in the West). This double-track approach is not new. Joseph Stalin said in 1934: “Those who seek a business relationship with us will always find our support. And those who try to attack our country will be dealt a deadly blow, to deter them from sticking their snouts into our Soviet backyard.”
随着商业发展，这变成了一个与众不同的故事。甚至一些激进的反西主义者都接纳外国大公司作为合作伙伴和投资者（把外国大公司作为他们在西方谋取政治利益的游说者）。这种双轨的做法并不新鲜。斯大林在1934年说：“向我们寻求业务关系的国家总能得到我们的支持。那些试图攻击我们的国家将受到致命的打击，我们将竭力阻止他们打我们苏维埃的后院的主意。“

As an alternative to the West, Mr Putin points to the East, hailing China's rise as a colossal chance to catch its “wind in the sails of our economy”. China and Russia, he has argued, each need the other to be strong and prosperous. Neither lectures the other on human rights. China sees Russia as a safe resource-base which would be strategically important in case of escalating tension between China and America. To prove the point, Xi Jinping, China's new leader, made Moscow his first port of call.
寻求西方的替代者，普金把目光转向了中国，称赞中国的崛起是一个极好的机会 “在经济市场乘风破浪”。 他认为，中国和俄罗斯，都需要对方的支持才能变得强大和繁荣。更不要说是在人权问题观念方面寻求支持。中国将俄罗斯视作一个可靠的资源库，在中国和美国之间的紧张局势不断升级的情况下，这将是具有重要战略意义的。为了证明这一点，中国的新领导人习近平，选择莫斯科作为他的第一个停靠港。

On Syria, Russia has repeatedly wielded its UN security-council veto against sanctions and blocked international oversight of Syrian chemical weapons. But it does not seek a confrontation. Perhaps thanks to tough talk from Israel and other countries, it seems not to have delivered advanced air-defence systems to the regime there, or provided personnel to train Syrians. Igor Malashenko, a veteran observer of Russia-American relations, says that unlike the Soviet Union, Russia does not participate in big international affairs largely because it is not prepared to take responsibility for big decisions.
在叙利亚问题上，俄罗斯曾多次挥起联合国安全安理会的否决权反对国际监督对叙利亚化学武器的制裁和阻止。但它并不是要硬碰硬。也许要归功于来自以色列和其他国家的强硬言论，似乎没有先进的防空系统去支持政权交付，或提供有关人员去培训叙利亚人。俄罗斯和美国关系的老牌观察员伊戈尔·马拉申科说，这与苏联的情况不同，俄罗斯不参与大型的国际事务在很大程度上是因为它不准备承担重大决策的风险。

But Russia has drawn a “red line” on the issue of Ukraine's association agreement with the European Union. It has launched a fusillade of trade sanctions to press the case for its rival outfit, the Eurasian Economic Union. Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a periodical, says the main point is anchoring former Soviet republics in Russia's sphere of influence rather than promoting trade. (And having Ukraine in the customs union would be “a guaranteed headache”, like Britain in the EU, he adds.)
但俄罗斯在乌克兰与欧盟联合协议问题上已划下“红色警戒线”。为了打击它的竞争对手欧亚经济联盟俄罗斯双管齐下的采用了贸易制裁，它已经推出了一个赤裸裸的贸易制裁。《全球事务中的俄罗斯》期刊的编辑费奥多尔表示，重点在于瞄准前苏维埃政权在当今俄罗斯势力范围内的影响，而不是促进贸易。（把乌克兰纳入海关联盟毫无疑问将是个麻烦，就像英国在欧盟中一样，他补充说。）

But bullying Ukraine is likely to alienate it further and will stoke tension with the EU, which like America has been appalled by Russia's anti-gay law. Germany, once Russia's cheerleader, is now its most vocal critic. That will be bad for business (the EU is by far Russia's biggest trading partner). It may also doom the regime's aim, stoked by self-interest, of persuading the EU to offer visa-free entry for holders of official passports.
但欺负乌克兰可能进一步疏远两者之间的关系并使与欧盟的局势变得更紧张，就像美国对俄罗斯的反同性恋的法律感到震惊。曾经以俄国为首的德国如今成为了批判的最大声，这些情况都将阻碍商务的发展（欧盟是俄罗斯迄今为止最大的贸易伙伴）。受到利己主义的煽动，说服欧盟提供公务护照持有人免签证入境也可能使政权最初目的走向灭亡。

Whatever the Kremlin says, members of Russia's educated and affluent middle class continue to look West. Russia's rulers greatest weakness is the lack of anything positive that could attract their own people or outsiders. For all his talk of outfitting Russia for a changing world, Mr Putin chiefly conveys a deep fear of disturbing the fragile status quo. That is pushing the country backwards.
无论克里姆林宫怎么说，俄罗斯受过教育和富裕的中产阶级成员仍然寻找西方支持。俄罗斯的统治者最大的弱点是没有正面力量去吸引自己人或外人。为了增强俄罗斯的实力以适应这个无时不在变化的世界，普京主要传达了怕扰乱脆弱现状的恐惧。这会导致国家的后退。