经济学人下载:贝卢斯科尼意欲重掌大权 蒙蒂将如何阻止?

Europe Italian politics
欧洲 意大利政治

Will Monti run for prime minister?
蒙蒂会竞选总理吗？

How to prevent Silvio Berlusconi from returning to power
如何防止西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼重掌大权

With his restrained smile, laconic manner and dry humour, Mario Monti, Italy’s prime minister, makes a good sphinx. And that is the role he will have to play until the budget for 2013 is approved by parliament, probably on December 21st. Only then will he be able to cast aside the neutrality he must maintain as head of a technocratic government and announce whether he plans to stand in the general election now expected in February.
克制的微笑，简洁的仪态和冷冷的幽默，意大利总理马里奥·蒙蒂塑造了一张体面的狮身人面像。他必须始终扮演这样一个角色，直到议会在12月21日左右通过2013年的预算，他才能够抛弃作为技术官僚政府首脑必须坚持的中立态度，并宣布是否计划参加预定在2月份举行的大选。

The early vote became inevitable on December 8th when Mr Monti told Giorgio Napolitano, the president, that he intended to resign. By then, he had lost the support of Silvio Berlusconi’s People of Freedom (PdL) movement. The 76-year-old Mr Berlusconi then said he would be his party’s candidate for prime minister. He later cast doubt on this, even making a bizarre offer to stand down if Mr Monti wanted to take over his party—a sign perhaps that the former prime minister senses that his candidacy risks becoming an embarrassing catastrophe. It has run into a barrage of international condemnation and even Mr Berlusconi’s old chums in the Northern League are hesitating about whether to renew their electoral alliance with the PdL.
12月8日，蒙蒂告知意大利总统乔治·纳波利塔诺辞职的打算，提前投票已不可避免。到那时，他失去了西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼领导的自由人民党(PdL) 的支持。76岁的贝卢斯科尼随后宣布他将担任该政党的总理候选人。之后，他又使事情变得疑云重重，甚至令人匪夷所思地提议如果蒙蒂想要接管他的政党的话，他将会退出——这个迹象表明前总理或许意识到他的候选人资格面临着演变成令人尴尬的灾难的危险。他已经陷入轮番轰炸的国际谴责，甚至贝卢斯科尼北方联盟的密友都在犹豫是否恢复和自由人民党组成的竞选联盟。

Mr Berlusconi launched himself into the campaign with an implicit renunciation of the actions of Mr Monti’s government, which his party has until now supported. The billionaire media mogul has since depicted the government’s policies as unnecessarily painful and imposed on a Germanophile Mr Monti by the government in Berlin. He has scorned concerns over the interest cost on Italy’s vast public debt, which Mr Monti had almost halved before Mr Berlusconi’s reappearance panicked investors. And he held out to voters the prospect that he could undo the reintroduction of an unpopular property tax and reignite growth, something he signally failed to do in the eight years between 2001 and 2011 when he held power.
贝卢斯科尼投身竞选运动，间接地断绝了和蒙蒂政府的任何行动，而他的政党直到现在依然支持后者。这位拥有亿万资产的媒体大亨目前将政府的政策描述成不必要的疼痛，并通过柏林政府将“亲德派蒙蒂”的称号强加在蒙蒂身上。他一度鄙视对意大利庞大的国债利息成本的担忧，在贝卢斯科尼的再现引起投资者恐慌之前，蒙蒂几乎使其下降了一半。贝卢斯科尼还许诺选民他能通过撤销重新引入的一项不受欢迎的财产税，再次刺激经济增长，而在2001-2011他执政的8年间他显然未能做到这些。

Some of Mr Monti’s comments, obliquely countering Mr Berlusconi’s populist contentions, suggest he is itching to defend his government’s record. But those close to him say he is genuinely undecided about whether to run. The risks are considerable, and not just for Mr Monti.
蒙蒂的一些拐弯抹角地反对贝卢斯科尼民粹主义论点的言语暗示他渴望保卫他所领导的政府的政绩。但是他的亲信们表示他确实没有决定是否继续执政。风险是巨大的，不仅仅是对蒙蒂而言。

A central problem of Italian democracy is that both its main parties are an ideological hotch-potch. On the left, the Democratic Party (PD) is the offspring of a marriage between ex-communists and former Christian Democrats. On the right, the PdL is the outcome of a merger between reconstructed neo-fascists and Mr Berlusconi’s heterogeneous following of opportunists, ex-socialists, conservatives and the odd liberal. Mr Monti has the chance to lay the foundations of an altogether more presentable conservative movement: an Italian reflection of the principles that inspire the European Peoples’ Party in the European Parliament.
意大利民主政体的一个核心问题是主要政党都是思想大杂烩。左翼民主党（PD）是原共产主义者和前基督教民主党结合的后代。而右翼自由人民党是新法兰西主义者和贝卢斯科尼领导的由机会主义者，原社会主义者，保守党和奇怪的自由党组成的多种多样的追随者结合起来的产物。蒙蒂有机会为一场完全的更象样的保守运动打下基础：这项运动是对激励欧洲国会中的欧洲人民党的法则的意大利式的解读。

The building blocks already exist: the conservative Union of Christian and Centre Democrats (UDC); a new movement led by the chairman of Ferrari, Luca Cordero di Montezemolo, which was founded specifically as a vehicle for the prime minister; and other, smaller groups. Mr Monti could steal votes from the PdL, which is in danger of breaking apart despite Mr Berlusconi’s return and from the moderate wing of the PD. Above all, says Antonio Noto of IPR Marketing, “he could lure to the polls some of the 25% of Italians who say they are not tempted by any of the existing parties”, or even by the anti-establishment Five Star Movement led by Beppe Grillo, a former comedian.
构建基础已然存在：保守的基督教和中派民主党联盟；法拉利主席卢卡斯·柯德罗·迪·蒙特泽莫罗领导的专门为总理制造座驾的一项新运动；还包括其他规模较小的组织。虽然贝卢斯科尼复出，但是自由民主党依然面临着解体的危险，蒙蒂可以借此拉拢他们和中立派民主党的选票。最重要的是，知识产权市场研究院的安东尼奥·诺托表示“蒙蒂能够吸引到对现有的政党都没有兴趣的大约25%的意大利人的选票”，甚至能得到前喜剧明星贝皮·格里罗领导的反正统的五星运动的支持。

Big business and the Catholic church have already signalled their support for the prime minister. And Mr Monti could prove a good foil for the slick, showy tycoon. Mr Berlusconi has been defeated twice in five general elections. Each time, his nemesis was another quietly-spoken economics professor with impeccable European credentials: Romano Prodi.
意大利财团和天主教会已经暗示了他们对总理的支持。而蒙蒂可以证明自己是这位华而不实，极尽炫耀的商业大亨很好的反衬。贝卢斯科尼在5次大选中2次落败。他的主要对手又是默不作声的持有无懈可击的欧洲证书的经济学教授罗马诺·普罗迪。

The snag is that Mr Monti’s real adversary would not be Mr Berlusconi, but the leader of the PD, Pier Luigi Bersani, who has pointedly warned the prime minister to stay out of the fray. Without exception, the polls show the PD and its allies with a substantial lead. Under Italy’s electoral rules, whichever coalition comes first receives a bonus that guarantees it a majority in the Chamber of Deputies. But in the Senate the bonus is allocated region by region. The big risk for the governability of Italy after the election is a result that gives a coalition a majority in the chamber, but not in the Senate.
真正的障碍在于蒙蒂的真正的对手并不是贝卢斯科尼，而是民主党的领导人贝尔萨尼，他尖锐地提醒总理远离这场争论。无一例外，民意调查显示民主党和其盟友大大领先。根据意大利的大选规则，任何一个处于第一位的联盟都有这样一个福利，保证其得到众议院的多数支持。而在参议院里，这个福利是按地区分配的。大选后的意大利施政将面临的最大危险是选举结果使得该联盟获得了众议院的多数支持，却没有得到参议院的支持。

A pro-Monti coalition would find it hard to overtake the PD nationally, but could ruin its chances of dominating both houses. A hung Senate might also give Mr Berlusconi, whose party has sunk to around 15% in the polls, his most realistic chance of retaining influence. But so long as Mr Monti was ready to join forces with Mr Bersani after the election, the PdL could be pushed firmly into opposition, along with Mr Grillo’s representatives.
支持蒙蒂的联盟发现要全国性地推翻民主党相当困难，但是可以毁灭其统治两院的机会。贝卢斯科尼领导的政党的民意支持率已经降到了15%，而悬而未决的参议院给他保持影响力提供了最现实的机会。但是只要蒙蒂准备好在大选后和贝尔萨尼通力合作，自由人民党将被牢牢地推向反对派，格里罗的代表也不例外。

Other calculations are weighing on Mr Monti. If he were to stand, he would have to give up his life senator’s seat. A decision to run could mean he lost his chance to occupy the Quirinal palace as Italy’s head of state when Mr Napolitano retires next year. That is where Mr Bersani would like to see him, as a guarantor of future reforms. Above all, there is the increasingly unfathomable Berlusconi variable. If Mr Berlusconi were to pull out, or his party to implode, the temptation for Mr Monti to pounce might become irresistible.
其他政治猜测也压得蒙蒂喘不过气来。如果他继续担任总理的话，他将不得不放弃终身议员的席位。退出竞选的决定意味着他将失去明年纳波利塔诺退休后作为意大利元首进驻奎里纳莱宫的机会。而贝尔萨尼迫切期望他能作为未来改革的保证人呆在那里。毕竟，贝卢斯科尼的可变因素正变得越来越深不可测。如果贝卢斯科尼撤出大选，或其政党发生内讧，那么蒙蒂面临抓住这个机会的诱惑是不可阻挡的。