经济学人下载:意大利改革迎千年难遇良机 "邪恶骑士"意图乘虚而入

Leaders Italian politics in turmoil
先驱 意大利政坛动荡不安

Run, Mario, run
马里奥，快跑

A rare chance of reform in Italy—but its current prime minister needs to come out fighting
意大利改革，机会难得；现任总理，应挺身而出

For a moment, it was like the bad old days in Italy. After the main centre-right party, the People of Freedom (PdL), withdrew its support for the technocratic prime minister, Mario Monti, he dramatically announced his forthcoming resignation on December 8th. Worse, Silvio Berlusconi said that he would run as the PdL’s candidate for prime minister, for the sixth time, in the election now expected in February (though he may change his mind). No wonder the financial markets were spooked.
有那么一瞬间，意大利仿佛重返糟糕的旧时代。12月8日马里奥·蒙蒂戏剧性地宣称其即将提交辞职申请，而此前主要中右翼党派自由民主党（PdL）表示不再支持这位坚持专家统治论的总理。更糟的是，预计在明年2月举行的大选中，西尔维奥·布卢斯科尼（尽管期间他可能会改变注意）还称将以PdL候选人身份第六次竞选总理一职。难怪金融市场已如惊弓之鸟。

In the 13 months since the clownish Mr Berlusconi was ousted, Mr Monti has brought calm, some significant reform and a lot more dignity to his country. Yet Italy is still potentially one of the weakest links in the euro. It has the world’s fourth-biggest debt stock and is mired in the deepest recession among the euro zone’s biggest economies. Over the past decade its economy has barely grown. Although the budget deficit is under reasonable control, far more extensive reforms are needed to restore Italian competitiveness and to reignite growth. Mr Monti’s resignation will stymie further reform until after the election. The big question is, who will win?
13个月前，小丑布卢斯科尼被罢黜，自那以来，蒙蒂给意大利带来了平静，并已开展了一些有意义的改革，提升了意大利的口碑。然而意大利依旧是欧元区链条中最薄弱的一环，是全球第四大负债国，相较欧元区其他最大经济体，意大利在经济衰退泥沼中陷得最深。过去的10年里，意大利经济停滞不前，虽说预算赤字在合理可控范围内，但它依旧需要更多的改革来重塑其竞争力，重振其经济。然而蒙蒂的辞职会在至下一次大选期间内扼制改革的进一步推行。一个很重要的问题是：谁会赢得此次大选？

There is a terrible option, an acceptable one and a potentially very good one. The awful would be the return of Mr Berlusconi. Fortunately, the PdL is languishing at little more than 15% in the opinion polls, and the elderly media tycoon will also be blamed by some voters for bringing down Mr Monti.
有三种可能：一个很糟，一个可勉强接受，还有一个非常有前景。最糟的是布卢斯科尼重返政坛。所幸的是，自民党的声望在下降，其支持率在民意测验中只有15%多一点，而且布卢斯科尼这位年长的媒体界巨头会因蒙蒂的离开而受部分选民谴责。

Far more likely is a win for the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) led by Pier Luigi Bersani, which has 30-35% in the polls, enough for his bloc to secure the winner’s premium of extra seats in the lower house. Mr Bersani was a reformer when he was last in government, between 2006 and 2008. He has promised broadly to stick to the combined policies of fiscal austerity and structural reforms laid out by Mr Monti. But he may find it hard to deliver, as he will depend for support on allies from the far left and on unions that are hostile to change.
相较之下，更有可能的情况是，由皮尔·路易吉·贝尔萨尼领导的中左翼民主党（PD）获胜，该党派拥有30-35%的支持率，一旦胜任，该党在下议院中便可获得更多席位。2006至2008年在贝尔萨尼上一次担任政府要职期间，他坚持改革，承诺继续支持蒙蒂提出的财政紧缩和结构改革并行的政策。然而，实施改革困难重重，因为这需要他既得到极左派的支持，又赢得反改革派工党的帮助。

Last week we said that Mr Bersani as prime minister with Mr Monti as president might be a reasonable outcome. Now, however, there is a chance of something better: Mr Monti could be elected as prime minister himself. His unexpected resignation is, by his technocratic standards, an aggressive political act. Italy’s business leaders are urging him to stand—by joining a centrist party, perhaps Pier Ferdinando Casini’s Union of Christian and Centre Democrats or a new group created by Luca Cordero di Montezemolo, the boss of Ferrari.
上周本报评论说，以贝尔萨尼为总理，蒙蒂为主席的组合可能会是个不错的结局。然而，现在有一种更好的结局：总理之职仍由蒙蒂自己担任。他出人意料的辞职，按照专家统治论的标准，只是以退为进的政治手段。并且意大利商界领袖强烈要求蒙蒂做好准备，加入一个中立党派从而赢得大选，可以是皮尔·费迪南多·卡西尼领导的基督教民主党，也可以是由法拉利老板卢卡·科尔德罗·迪·蒙特泽莫罗创立的新政党。

The risk is that a Monti candidacy could split the anti-Berlusconi ticket, letting il Cavaliere in by the back door. But there is also a huge opportunity. If a Monti-led party drew enough votes from left and right to win, he would have a real mandate for reform, especially when it came to opening up markets to competition and reshaping the state sector. Italy has never had such a government. With a pro-business centrist at the helm, some of Mr Berlusconi’s supporters might join up. If Mr Bersani’s PD were offered enough posts—he himself could perhaps become deputy prime minister and thus Mr Monti’s presumed successor—he might also join in.
然而这样存在风险，原先反对布卢斯科尼而支持蒙蒂的票数将一分为二，反而让“邪恶骑士”布卢斯科尼乘虚而入。但蒙蒂还有很大的胜算。如果蒙蒂领导的党派能获得足够多的左翼右翼人士的支持，那么他便能赢得选举，便能真正授权推行改革，特别是此事意大利需要开放市场，面向竞争和重整国营部门。在意大利历史上从未有过这样的政府。若掌权的是一名亲商的中间派，一些贝卢斯科尼的支持者也会加入该阵营。如果贝尼萨尔的民主党获得足够的票数，他便可能成为副总理，也就认定是蒙蒂的继任人，那么他自然也会加入蒙蒂的阵营。

Stay in Rome, not St Moritz
留在罗马，别去圣莫里茨

It might not work. Mr Monti is not a natural politician, never having run for elective office. He might not win. Previously he has seemed more drawn to the Italian presidency (or the European Union’s). If he does not feel up to the job, he should duck out now. But if he cares about his country, this is the time to come out fighting—and persuade other centrists to join him. Italians are fed up with the mess their country is in. This is a rare opportunity to change things.
然而这未必能实现。蒙蒂不是一个天生的政客，他从未参选担任公职，所以他可能赢不了。之前，他似乎更倾向于意大利总统之职（或是欧盟总统之职）。如果他觉得自己不能胜任这一工作，他就应当马上退出。但是，如果他心系祖国，他应此时挺身而出——并且说服其他中立党派加入他的阵营。意大利人受够了他们国家的长期以来的混乱糟糕。这是千年难遇的改革良机。