经济学人下载:全球房价过热 警惕繁华背后的泡沫

Finance and economics: Global house prices Hot in the city
财经：全球房价，楼市过热

Valuations in globalised cities are rising much faster than in their hinterlands.
全球化城市的估价比其腹地增价快。

GLOBALISATION has created a handful of metropolises that attract people, capital and ideas from all over the world, almost irrespective of how their national economy is doing.
全球化创建了几个大都市。不管它们所在国家的经济状况如何，这些大都市都吸引着全世界的人们、资本和理念。

House prices in such places, unsurprisingly, outpace the national average.
这些地方的房价高于本国平均水平也是意料之中。

In our latest round-up of global housing, we find that prices have risen in 20 of the 26 countries we track over the past year, at an (unweighted) average pace of 5.1% after adjusting for inflation.
在最新一期关于全球住房的报道中，我们发现在去年追踪的26个国家当中，20个国家的房价在消除通货膨胀后以5.1%的平均增速（未加权）增长。

Prices in pre-eminent cities in these countries, however, have risen by 8.3% on average.
然而这些国家一线城市的房价平均增长8.3%。

In a survey conducted last year, fewer than one in nine residents of Amsterdam, Berlin, London, Paris, Stockholm and Zurich thought that it was easy to find reasonably-priced housing.
去年的一项调查显示，阿姆斯特丹、柏林、伦敦、巴黎、斯德哥尔摩以及苏黎世几个城市超过88.9%的居民觉得很难找到价格合理的房子。

In these cities, house prices have risen at an average pace of 6.5% a year over the past three years (again, unweighted) , compared with a national average rise of just 3.2%.
三年来，与全国平均增长水平3.2%相比，这些城市的房价每年平均增速为6.5%。

The value of homes in four cities on the Pacific—San Francisco, Vancouver, Sydney and Shanghai—has increased by 12% a year over the past three years, twice the average national pace.
太平洋沿岸的4个城市-旧金山、温哥华、悉尼以及上海的房价每年增长12%，是全国平均增速的两倍。

The supply of housing is rather inelastic, so in the short term house-price inflation is driven more by demand factors, such as the number of households, disposable income, interest rates and the yield available on other assets.
房屋供给缺乏弹性，所以短期内家庭数量、可支配收入、利率以及营业外资产收益等需求因素会更多地推动房价高涨。

In recent years all of these have helped to push house prices steadily upwards, especially in big cities.
近年来，这些因素推动房价稳步上升，尤其在大城市现象更加明显。

In the conurbations in question, the number of households is rising fast as hordes of ambitious millennials pour in.
随着雄心勃勃的千禧一代成群结队涌进上述讨论的大城市中，城市家庭数量快速增加。

Two in five of Zurich's residents were born outside Switzerland; 44% are between the ages of 20 and 44.
苏黎世40%的居民都不是在瑞士出生的；44%居民年龄在20岁到44岁之间。

The boom towns also have tight labour markets and therefore relatively high income growth: the unemployment rate in San Francisco and Stockholm is around a percentage-point lower than the national averages.
这些急速发展的城市劳动市场较紧缺，因而收入增长较高。旧金山和斯德哥尔摩的失业率低于全国平均水平一个百分点。

Some are havens for second homes and money seeking safety: foreigners snap up half of London's princeliest dwellings, according to Savills, an estate agent.
一家房地产经纪公司第一太平戴维斯指出，这些城市是人们第二个家以及资金避险的最佳选址。外国人抢购了伦敦一半的豪华住宅。

Finally, they provide a decent return: net yields in Vancouver were 11% in 2015, according to MSCI, a data provider, three percentage points above the average for Canadian housing.
最后他们也会给予可观的回报：摩根士丹利资本国际公司提供的数据显示，2015年温哥华的住房净收益为11%，高于全国住房平均水平3个百分点。