经济学人下载:回首旧年:如何从“怀旧”潮掇菁撷华(1)

Leaders
社论

The uses of nostalgia
怀旧的打开方式

How to get the best from an outbreak of reminiscence
如何从怀旧爆发中掇菁撷华

Politicians have always exploited the past. But just now, rich countries and emerging economies are experiencing an outbreak of nostalgia. Right and left, democracies and autocracies, all are harking back to the glories of yesteryear. Even as President Donald Trump vows to “Make America great again”, President Xi Jinping is using his “Chinese dream” to banish a century of humiliation and return China to its golden age. Mexico’s new president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has a mission to withstand global capitalism and restore his country’s economic sovereignty. Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the most powerful politician in Poland, wants to purge the last traces of Soviet communism to bring about a renaissance of old-fashioned Polish values.
政客们总会充分从过去汲取经验。但眼下，富裕国家和新兴经济体正经历一场怀旧情绪的爆发。左翼和右翼、民主和专制政体，都在重温昔日辉煌。正如美国总统唐纳德·特朗普发誓要“让美国再次强大”（竞选口号），中国国家主席习近平正在用其“中国梦”驱散一个世纪的屈辱，让中国回到黄金时代。墨西哥新总统安德烈斯•曼纽尔•洛佩兹•奥夫拉多尔肩负着抵御全球资本主义、恢复墨西哥经济主权的使命。波兰最有权势的政治家雅罗斯瓦夫•卡钦斯基希望清除苏联共产主义的最后一丝痕迹，实现波兰传统价值观的复兴。

This orgy of reminiscence has different causes in different countries. In emerging markets past glories are often a foretaste of future triumphs. China, which has enjoyed 40 years of transformative growth, senses that it is on the threshold of something great. Under Narendra Modi, India has been celebrating its growing geopolitical heft with a Hindu-nationalist revival.
这种怀旧热潮在不同的国家有不同原因。在新兴市场，旧日辉煌往往预示着明日成功。中国已经经历了40年的转型发展，并意识到正立于伟大事业起点。印度，在纳伦德拉•莫迪领导下，一直在用印度教民族主义复兴来庆祝其日益增长的地缘政治影响力。

In the rich world, by contrast, nostalgia usually stems from what Sophia Gaston, of the Henry Jackson Society, calls “an omnipresent, menacing feeling of decline”. Almost two-thirds of Britons think that life used to be better. A similar share of the French do not feel at home in the present. This year’s UN World Happiness Report found that Americans are becoming less content. Large majorities in rich and developing countries believe that robots and automation will increase inequality and harm employment. A poll of 28 countries in 2017 found that over half of respondents expected their living conditions to stagnate or worsen. Only 15% of Japanese think their children will be richer than their parents.
相比之下，在富裕国家，怀旧通常源自亨利•杰克逊协会的索菲娅•加斯顿所说的“无处不在、令人生畏的衰落感”。近三分之二的英国人认为过去的生活更好。而近三分之二的法国人在现在的年代感觉不自在。今年的联合国世界幸福报告发现，美国人越来越不满足。在富裕国家和发展中国家，绝大多数人认为机器人和自动化将加剧不平等，损害就业。2017年一项针对28个国家的调查发现，超过半数的受访者预计自己的生活条件将停滞不前或恶化。只有15%的日本人认为他们的孩子会比他们的父母更富有。