经济学人下载:欧元区经济:保持信心(2)

Italy's domestic politics are also concerning.
意大利的国内政治也令人担忧。

The government's row with the European Commission over its budget and ensuing market jitters are starting to weigh on sentiment and push up borrowing costs.
该国政府与欧洲委员会关于其预算的争执和随后引发的市场不安已经开始给人们的信心造成压力使借贷成本增加。

The country's GDP shrank in the third quarter as consumption and investment fell.
第三季度，该国的GDP收缩，消费和投资下滑。

The purchasing managers' index, a closely watched survey, suggests that output also fell in October and November.
一项备受关注的调查—采购经理指数表明10月和11月的产出也下降了。

An official recession—two consecutive quarters of contraction—could be on the cards.
正式的经济衰退—连续两个季度的收缩—很有可能会发生。

Italy aside, economists are not predicting a sharp deceleration. Daniele Antonucci of Morgan Stanley,
除意大利外，经济学家们预测不会出现急剧下降。摩根史坦利投资公司的丹尼尔·安托尼奇

a bank, expects euro-zone growth to slow from 1.9% this year to 1.5% by 2020, broadly in line with his estimate of its long-term growth potential.
预计欧元区的增长将从今年的1.9%降至2020年的1.5%，这明显与他对其长期增长潜能的评估一致。

That might give the ECB some comfort: it means inflation is unlikely to fall.
这或许给了ECB一些安慰：这意味着通货膨胀不太可能下降。

Even so, weak pricing pressure is testing the ECB's resolve.
即便如此，微弱的价格压力正考验着ECB的决心。

In recent months headline inflation has been a little higher than the ECB's target of "below, but close to" 2%.
在近几个月中，整体通胀一直微高于ECB的“低于但接近”2%的目标。

But that largely reflects past rises in the oil prices; a recent tumble should drag it down.
但这极大反映出了石油价格过去的增长；近期的一次下跌拖了后腿。

Core inflation (excluding food and energy) has long confounded the bank's expectations of a rise. Since 2015 it has hovered at around 1%.
长期以来，核心通货膨胀（除食品和能源以外）让该行对增长的预期感到困惑。自2015年以来，核心通货膨胀在约1%徘徊。

ECB officials are convinced that this time is different.
ECB官员们深信这一次情况不同。

Mario Draghi, its boss, is cheered by signs of a pickup in wage growth to 2.3% as unemployment has fallen.
失业率下降，工资增长至2.3%，这些好转的迹象让ECB行长马里奥·德拉吉感到高兴。

This is showing up in salaries rather than bonuses, signalling greater confidence in the economy.
这种迹象出现在工资而非红利上，暗示着对经济更有信心。

But even in Germany, where wage growth is particularly strong, inflation is low: in October core inflation there was around 1.5%.
但是即使是在德国这个工资增长尤为强劲，通货膨胀低的国家，其十月的核心通货膨胀约为1.5%。

That may partly reflect Germany's need for its many exports to stay affordable on global markets.
这或许部分反映了德国对保持全球市场价格优势的众多出口的需求。

Andrew Benito of Goldman Sachs, an investment bank, thinks that low German inflation limits price pressures across the currency area,
投资银行高盛投资公司的安德鲁·贝尼托认为德国的低通货膨胀限制了货币区的物价压力，

because southern countries are trying to regain competitiveness against Germany.
因为南部国家正试图恢复与德国的竞争力。

That means euro-zone inflation could stay subdued for the next couple of years.
这意味着欧元区的通货膨胀可能在未来几年保持平缓。