经济学家和投资者应该少关注消费者的想法(下)

To understand why, it is useful to consider a weaker case for such indices: not that they foretell the future but that they can reveal the present.

要理解其中的原因，不妨考虑一下这类指数得以存在的一个较弱的理由：不是因为它们预示未来，而是因为它们可以揭示现在。

An article in 1994 in the American Economic Review found that data on consumer confidence significantly improved forecasts of consumption growth when it was the sole explanatory factor.

1994年发表在《美国经济评论》上的一篇文章发现，当消费者信心是唯一的解释因素时，消费者信心数据显著改善了对消费增长的预测。

The problem is that when other variables such as incomes or employment were known, confidence data contributed little to the forecasts.

问题是，当收入或就业等其他变量已知时，信心数据对预测的贡献微乎其微。

On an intellectual level that is a damning assessment of the role of sentiment, showing that feelings by themselves have little bearing on the economy.

在理智层面，这是对情绪作用的彻底否定，表明情绪本身对经济几乎没有影响。

But it indicates that surveys may have some use: sentiment reflects what people personally know about their incomes and their jobs, and it is these variables that ultimately influence their spending.

但这也表明，调查可能有一些用处：情绪反映了人们对自己的收入和工作有什么亲身体会，正是这些变量最终影响了他们的支出。

Sentiment gauges are especially prized given the time lag in economic data.

考虑到经济数据的延迟性，情绪指标尤其受到重视。

The University of Michigan, for instance, published its preliminary consumer-sentiment index for April on the 14th.

例如，密歇根大学在4月14日公布了4月份的消费者情绪初步指数。

The Bureau of Economic Analysis will not publish data on personal incomes for April until May 26th.

而经济分析局要到5月26日才会公布4月份个人收入数据。

But even in such instances, their usefulness can easily be overstated.

但即使在这种情况下，情绪数据的用处也很容易被夸大。

Monthly variations in sentiment surveys tend to be minor and volatile, much like the variations in spending patterns that they foreshadow.

情绪调查的月度变化往往很小，波动性很大，很像它们所预示的消费模式的变化。

A paper by the European Central Bank in 2011 found that sentiment indices were most useful in periods of upheaval.

欧洲央行2011年的一篇论文发现，情绪指数在动荡时期最有用。

The bottom fell out of consumer surveys, for example, towards the start of the global financial crisis of 2007-09.

例如，在2007-09年全球金融危机开始时，消费者情绪就跌到了谷底。

Likewise, John Leer of Morning Consult notes that his company’s consumer index turned sharply negative in late February 2020, a month before the covid-induced downturn.

同样，晨间咨询的约翰·勒尔指出，晨间咨询的消费者指数在2020年2月下旬急剧下降，也就是新冠疫情引发经济低迷的前一个月。

Yet in truth, sentiment was far from the only sign that the economy was in trouble: a sharp sell-off in the stockmarket occurred at the same time, reflecting the barrage of bad news about the pandemic.

然而事实上，经济陷入困境的迹象远不止情绪：当时股市也出现了大幅抛售，表明有关疫情的坏消息接连出现。

Consumer surveys added to the picture of economic malaise. They hardly conjured it out of thin air.

消费者调查补充了难以揣摩的经济问题图景，这些调查绝对不是凭空引出了经济问题。

Arguably the biggest virtue of sentiment surveys is simply that so many in the market monitor them.

可以说，情绪调查最大的优点就是市场上有许多双眼睛在盯着它们。

And it is not just investors.

其中不仅只有投资者。

When the Fed raised interest rates by a whopping three-quarters of a percentage point last June—its first of four increases of that size—Jerome Powell, the central bank’s chairman, said that one factor was a jump in inflation expectations in the University of Michigan consumer survey.

去年6月，美联储将利率大幅上调了四分之三个百分点--这种幅度的加息共有四次，这是第一次--美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，加息的其中一个因素就是密歇根大学的消费者调查显示，人们对通胀的预期突然提高。

Duly informed, investors paid extra heed to the Michigan inflation reading for the next few months.

在得到这一及时信息后，投资者格外关注密歇根州接下来几个月的通胀数据。

Could the downbeat sentiment indices of the past year eventually look prescient?

过去一年的悲观情绪指数最终会起到预示作用吗？

There is, beyond consumer surveys, plenty of reason to think that an American recession may be in the offing at last: fallout from banking-sector turmoil and the ongoing debt-ceiling debacle come just as the labour market is starting to cool.

除了消费者调查，完全有理由认为美国经济衰退最终可能还是会到来：在劳动力市场开始降温的时候，恰好发生了银行业动荡和持续的债务上限灾难。

But as Zachary Karabell wrote in a book about leading indicators in 2014, the conclusion is a more frustrating one: “Sentiment gauges are right just often enough to make them compelling and wrong far too frequently to make them reliable.”

但正如扎克里·卡拉贝尔在2014年的一本关于主导性指标的书中所写的那样，他的结论更令人沮丧：“情绪指标正确的频率恰好足够使其具有说服力，而情绪指标错误的频率却高到让其失去了可靠性。”

You do not want to look at them too closely, even if you cannot make yourself look away.

虽然你没办法把目光从情绪指标上移开，但最好也不要紧盯着它看。