经济学人下载:聪明的投资者:这次不一样(2)

One option is for central bankers to raise rates more enthusiastically and less predictably, to jolt financial markets and remind investors that the world is volatile.
对于央行银行家而言，一个选项是更加热情而且是少一些可预测性地升息，以便惊扰金融市场并提醒投资者世界是不稳定的。

Yet there are obvious perils with this course.
然而，这一过程存在着明显的风险。

The tightening might prove excessive, tipping economies into recession.
收紧有可能被证明是过了，让各个经济体陷入衰退。

And with inflation in most big economies below central bankers' target, sharply higher rates are hard to square with their mandate.
而且，由于大多数大经济体的通胀都在央行银行家的目标之下，大幅升息难以与它们的法定任务相吻合。

Instead, caution calls for gradualism.
相反，谨慎呼唤循序渐进。

To minimise disruption, the reversal of quantitative easing should be stretched out.
为了使破坏最小化，量化宽松的反转应当被拉长。

The Federal Reserve has set a good precedent by proposing to reduce its bondholdings at a leisurely pace and flagging the change well in advance.
美联储通过提议以一种从容悠闲的步伐来降低其债券持有并且事先警示其变化的方式带了一个好头。

When the time comes, its peers should follow suit.
当时机成熟时，其他央行也应当跟进。

Of these, the European Central Bank faces the trickiest challenge, because it has acted as, in effect, the backstop to euro-zone bond markets, a mechanism that otherwise the currency bloc still lacks.
其中，欧洲央行面临最棘手的挑战。因为，它实际上扮演了欧元区债券市场兜底者的角色，这是该货币区域仍然缺乏的一种机制。

But the main safety valve lies elsewhere, with banks and investors.
但是，主要的安全阀在别处，在银行和投资者哪里。

Bitter experience has shown that debt-funded assets can magnify losses, causing financial crises.
痛苦的经历表明，债务支撑的资产能够放大损失，引发金融危机。

For this reason banks must be able to withstand any reversal of today's high asset prices and low defaults.
因此，银行必须能够经得起当今这种高资产价格和低违约的任何反转。

That means raising bank capital in places where it is too low, especially the euro zone, and not backsliding on strenuous “stress tests” as America's Treasury proposes.
这意味着在银行资本金太低的地方，尤其是欧元区，提高银行资本金；并且还要像美国财政部所建议的那样不要返回到耗费大量精力的“压力测试”上面。

In the end, however, there may be no escape for investors from the low future returns and even losses that high asset prices imply.
然而，对于投资者来说，最后可能无法逃脱高资产价格所暗示的低未来回报甚至是损失。

They and regulators should take a leaf out of “The intelligent Investor”, and make sure that they have a margin of safety.
他们和监管者应当根据《聪明的投资者》照本宣科，确保自己有一个安全边际。