VOA常速英语:意大利政治动荡给银行危机火上浇油

Italy’s Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena claims to be the world’s oldest surviving bank, but its future is at risk.The bank was in trouble long before Sunday’s referendum.But its ambitions to raise $5.4 billion in capital have been dented by the political upheaval.Many analysts predict the bank will have to be nationalized in the coming days.

“In the immediate term they might find it slightly more difficult to raise capital, which they need to cover their bad loans.However, nothing has really changed in the banking situation since the situation previous to the referendum.”

Italy hopes that realization will come investors nerves over the country’s banks, which are nursing bad loans totally $390 billion.The country’s borrowing costs have also risen since the referendum.

“Of course it’s challenge for Italy and the euro at large.But we need to precise that now the EU, I mean the ECB, the EU is more equipped to face a possible problem in Italy than it was five years ago.We have an ECB [European Central Bank] playing its role, we have a European Stability Mechanism able to rescue Italy if needed.”

Prime Minister Matteo Renzi will remain in power until the 2017 budget is passed by parliament.The president has said he will avoid calling immediate elections but the political uncertainty could turn market sentiment against Italy.

“Uncertainty over the constitutional architecture and the electoral law now adds to the uncertainty over the government. No one can say that Italy overall is entering a period of uncertainty.”

The opposition Five Star Movement — which tops opinion polls —is demanding immediate elections and a vote on leaving the euro;but, analysts say fears that Italy will leave the single currency are overplayed as new electoral laws will most likely deliver a coalition government.

“The new law crucially is going to be based on a proportional system most likely. And such a system is going to make it extremely hard for single parties such as the Five Star Movement to gain power at the next elections; but, of course they are calling for a referendum on the euro.The small matter is that this is actually unconstitutional.”

The hope in Italy and Europe, analysts say, is that a smooth political transition will help avoid a stormy end to a year of political upheaval.

Henry Ridgwell, For VOA news, London.