传言说中国可能对美国作出2000亿美元贸易让步，美国自己的专家都不相信

Chinese negotiators are preparing to offer the United States a mammoth package of promises to buy more American goods, in a bid to pare down the trade deficit between the two countries and to defuse President Trump’s aggressive moves against China’s trade practices.

为减少两国之间的贸易逆差，中国谈判代表准备向美国做出一系列购买更多美国商品的承诺，并缓和特朗普总统对中国的贸易做法采取的强硬举措。

The package, which officials said could approach the $200 billion in trade concessions that the administration requested from the Chinese government earlier this month, would allow Mr. Trump to claim a major victory in his campaign to rebalance America’s trade relationship with its biggest economic rival.

特朗普政府本月早些时候要求中国政府做出的2000亿美元贸易让步，某官员称这次方案很接近这个要求。这样就能证明特朗普在调整美国与经济劲敌之间的贸易关系的行动中取得了重大胜利。

But economists said any Chinese promises would be largely illusory, given the structural hurdles in China to buying more American exports. And critics say it could impair Mr. Trump’s more ambitious agenda to punish China for pressuring American companies to hand over valuable technology.

但经济专家称，考虑到中国增加美国出口产品购买量面临的结构性障碍，中国的任何承诺基本上都是不切实际的。批评人士表示，这可能会破坏特朗普更宏伟的议程，即惩罚中国强迫美国公司交出宝贵的技术。

The negotiations with Beijing come at a critical moment for Mr. Trump, four weeks before he is to meet the leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-un, for talks about giving up his nuclear arsenal. Twice in the last month, Mr. Kim has traveled to China to confer with President Xi Jinping. Some administration officials said they believed China was using its influence over North Korea as leverage to push Mr. Trump for a trade deal.

与北京进行此番谈判的时机，对特朗普至关重要。四周后，他将同朝鲜领导人金正恩会面，商讨后者放弃核武库的事宜。上个月，金正恩两次前往中国与中国国家主席习近平交换意见。一些政府官员认为，中国正在利用其对朝鲜的影响力对特朗普施压，强迫他达成一项贸易协议。

China’s chief negotiator, Liu He, a top economic adviser to Mr. Xi, is meeting on Thursday with the Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin; the United States trade representative, Robert Lighthizer; Wilbur L. Ross, the commerce secretary; and other officials.

中国首席谈判代表、习近平的最高经济顾问刘鹤将于周四同美国财政部长史蒂文.努钦、美国贸易代表罗伯特.莱特希泽、商务部长威尔伯.L.罗斯及其他官员会面。

The Chinese offer comes in response to a request by a high-level American trade delegation to Beijing in early May that China reduce the trade deficit, which hit $375.2 billion last year, by $200 billion. The trade deficit is the gap between what America exports to China and what it imports from that country. China is expected to pledge to reduce that gap by purchasing substantially more American agricultural products, including soybeans, as well as semiconductors and natural gas.

中国此举是对美国高级贸易代表团5月初提出的一个要求的回应。美方当时要求北京减少2000亿美元的贸易逆差。贸易逆差指的是美国出口到中国的商品，和从中国进口的商品之间的差额。两国去年的贸易逆差为3752亿美元。中国预计会承诺通过大幅增加美国农产品，包括大豆以及半导体和天然气的购买量来降低差额。

Chinese officials are likely to resurface past promises to Mr. Trump and previous American presidents, including opening up sectors of the economy that can receive foreign investment, like banking and insurance.

中方官员可能会再次提出过去向特朗普和前几任美国总统做出的承诺，包括开放可接受外国投资的经济领域，如银行业和保险业。

In return, China plans to press the administration to lift sanctions on the telecommunications giant ZTE and to relax export controls that prevent American companies from selling sensitive technology to China.

作为交换，中国计划向特朗普政府施压，要求其撤销对电信巨头中兴的处罚，并放松阻止美国公司向中国出售敏感技术的出口管制。

Economists say that having the Chinese purchase $200 billion more in American goods per year — an amount equivalent to more than half of the annual American trade deficit with China — simply is not practical.

经济专家称，让中国每年多买2000亿美元的美国商品——相当于美国每年对华贸易逆差的一半以上——根本不现实。

“The short answer is these are unrealistic numbers,” said Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“简短的回答是，这是些不切实际的数字，”彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员查德.鲍恩说。

Even if the Chinese stopped buying other foreign products, like Airbus airplanes from the European Union or soybeans from Brazil, and purchased solely American products, it would add up to only a small fraction of the $200 billion total. “It would even be a stretch to get it to $50 billion,” Mr. Bown said.

即使中国停止购买其他外国产品，比如欧盟的空客飞机或巴西的大豆，只买美国的产品，加起来也只相当于2000亿美元总额中的一小部分。“达到500亿美元都费劲，”鲍恩说。

That is because the United States economy is already running near its full productive capacity, meaning it would not be able to produce enough new goods to meet Chinese demands, especially in the short term.

这是因为美国经济现在已经接近最高生产能力了。这意味着它可能无法生产出足够多的新产品来满足中国的需求，尤其是在短期内。

In that scenario, the United States would probably stop selling airplanes, soybeans and other major exports to other countries and sell them to China instead — shrinking the United States trade deficit with China but leaving the United States trade deficit with the entire world unchanged.

在这种情况下，美国很可能会停止向其他国家销售飞机、大豆和其他主要出口产品，只卖给中国。这会使美国与中国的贸易逆差缩小，但美国与全世界的贸易逆差保持不变。